Estimating the Labour Force Trinidad and Tobago 28 th May 2014

Estimating the Labour Force Trinidad and Tobago28th May 2014 Sterling Chadee Director of Statistics

Introduction • The labour force estimates are obtained from a quarterly sample survey of households • Survey Name - CSSP Continuous Sample Survey of Population • The Continuous Sample Survey of Population (C.S.S.P) was designed as a multi-purpose household survey in 1963 with its primary objective being to provide up-to-date data on the labour force characteristics of the population of Trinidad and Tobago on a continuing basis

1st Quarter 2013 • Unemployment rate of 3.7% • Sample Size 3044 • Completed questionnaires 82.4% • Refused 2.3% • No Contact 9.0%

Sample Frame • The Sample is drawn from a master sample frame which was derived from the 1990 Population and Housing Census • The Frame comprising a listing of EDs • The master sample frame contain approx. 2/3 of all EDs

Sample Design • The CSSP is based on a stratified cluster design in which clusters of households or Enumeration Districts (EDs) consisting approximately 150 to 200 households constitute the Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) and the households within each ED constitute the Ultimate Sampling Units (USUs.)

Sample Design • Households are sampled utilizing a two-stage selection process. At the first stage ED’s are sampled with probability proportional to size (PPS). Using the available size estimates of households in the ED’s. At the second stage households within each selected ED are sampled with probability inversely proportional to size (PPS-1) • the probability of selection of second state units remain fixed throughout the life of the sampling frame

Sample Size • Currently, the sample size for the labour force survey is approximately 3,044 households per quarter selected from approximately 378 EDs, an average of 8.1households per ED. • The sample is geographically representative by Administrative area • Enumeration during a quarter is conducted in 6 periods or rounds

Coverage • All administrative areas in Trinidad and Tobago • Non-Institutional population of individuals who are 15 years of age or older • Unit of analysis: Private Households within private dwellings • Reference period is the past week

Field Operations • Permanent field staff • Paper questionnaires • EDs listed before enumeration • Number of households in the Ed is used to compute the number of USU/households to be interviewed • Field supervision • Return of questionnaires to office

Survey Processing • Edited and coded • Manual data entry • Electronic data is then edited and verified by a validation program • Apply raising factors • Tabulations produced

Questionnaire • Demographic characteristics – age, sex, ethnic group, education, place of birth, marital status • Economic activity – type of worker, occupation, industry, hours worked, income • Housing – tenancy, type of dwelling, toilet facilities, water supply, source of lighting

Estimation • Estimation of the number of persons employed is done by gender • Sample estimates are inflated to population estimates by sex based on the population ratio estimation method • Separate raising factors for Trinidad and Tobago allows the provision of independent quarterly estimates of the Labour Force by island • The estimate of the number of persons in the population aged 15 and over, by gender, which is obtained from a source that is independent of the labour force survey, is centered at the middle of each quarter

Concept of the Unemployed • Total Unemployed = Persons Seeking Work + Other Unemployed Persons Seeking work: • Persons without jobs during the reference week and were actively seeking employment during the said reference week

Concept of the Unemployed Other Unemployed • Persons who were without jobs during the reference week, who did not look for work during the reference week, but who did look for work at most three months before the reference week. Such persons must provide valid reasons for not looking for work during the reference period which are limited to the following:

Concept of the Unemployed • They were discouraged from seeking work • They were awaiting results of previous applications for employment • They were temporarily ill and could not look for work during the reference week • They wanted jobs but did not know of anywhere to get suitable employment

Concept of the Unemployed • The unemployed is classified into occupational and industrial groupings according to ISCO and ISIC respectively according to last occupation/job held if employed previously, or according to occupation/job sought if never was employed

Employed • Total Employed = Persons with jobs who worked during the reference period + Persons with jobs who did not work during the reference period • A Job is defined as any economic activity, in which a person is engaged for pay whether in cash or kind, regardless of the duration of work, since work takes precedence over any other activity

Not in the LabourForce Not in the labour Force • This Category refers to all persons 15yrs. old and over who are not classified as either employed or unemployed • It includes – students, housewives, retired persons, disabled persons and those who did not want work

Challenges • High Crime Areas • Gated communities • Increasing non-response • High no contact • Out dated frame • High turn over of field staff • Back log

Thank You

Estimating the Labour Force Trinidad and Tobago 28 th May 2014