Integrated Systems Analysis for Marine Site Evaluations and Multicriteria Decision Support for Coastal Aquaculture

1. Integrated Systems Analysis for Marine Site Evaluations and Multicriteria Decision Support for Coastal Aquaculture Dan Lane and Wojtek Michalowski, School of Management University of Ottawa, Rob Stephenson and Fred Page, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, St. Andrews Biological Station Aquaculture, Innovation and Social Transformation

2. This project • Team with background in management science, systems, oceanography and fisheries • Developing tools for decision support related to aquaculture and other marine uses in the lower Bay of Fundy • Developing techniques and tools to assist in scenario comparison and decision-making for diverse (perhaps conflicting) uses • Developing the basis for ICZM Aquaculture, Innovation and Social Transformation

3. Motivation • Increasing emphasis on ICZM - Locally, nationally and internationally • Need procedures for the integrated, systemic evaluation of coastal zone sites and multiple uses • Ecosystem evaluation includes aquaculture as well as traditional marine uses Aquaculture, Innovation and Social Transformation

4. Introduction • ICZM demands holistic view and integrated management of all human uses • ICZM suggests need for comparison of alternative policies/sites and ecosystem and social impacts affecting the coastal zone • ICZM requires procedures for multicriteria valuation involving different perspectives of many participants in the decision process Aquaculture, Innovation and Social Transformation

5. Case Study Plus • Lower Bay of Fundy (Grand Manan) fisheries and aquaculture • Local coastal zone sites and issues • Specific integration of ecosystem and socioeconomic aspects • Multiple, diverse, and overlapping marine spatial-temporal uses • Different perspectives to related problems and analyses Aquaculture, Innovation and Social Transformation

6. Participants’ Perspectives from Pairwise Comparisons Goal Resources, Habitat, Toxicology, Activities Herring, Scallops, Lobster, Urchins Salt Marshes, Rockweed Chemicals Weirs, Traps, Drags Site Evaluation Proposed Methodology and Model Summary Marine Site Components Multicriteria Analysis (AHP Model Form) Site Options: GIS Evaluations (participant independent) Expert Choice Data Grid from GIS Inventory Aquaculture, Innovation and Social Transformation

7. Model results: Sample overlays Grand Manan Island, N.B. T1 T2 Tg2 Tg1 Tg3 Tg4 T5 Selected areas for evaluation denoted as Ti. T5 T3 T3 T4 T6 T4 T6

8. Ranked Results of Selected Area by Different Participants Aquaculture, Innovation and Social Transformation

9. Decision Support Scope • Spatial-temporal and marine site specific valuations based on inventory and use • Graphical presentation (GIS and ranking) • Results from perspectives of multiple participants • Sensitivity and suggested synthesis Aquaculture, Innovation and Social Transformation

10. Responsible Governance Structure • Jurisdiction: Federal versus Provincial issues • Not-in-my-backyard syndrome • Commercial expansionary perspectives traditional versus innovative use • Multiple participants: scientists, managers, industry, environmentalists, communities Aquaculture, Innovation and Social Transformation

11. Conclusions-to-date • Address conflicts by accepting and exposing them • Develop measurable indicators of impacts • Evaluate importance trade-offs (pairwise comparisons) among different participants • Search for common ground via sensitivity analysis on data and hierarchy weights • Results provide decision support framework for multiple participants in an uncertain, complex environment Aquaculture, Innovation and Social Transformation

12. Issues to follow • Data gathering on agreed to valuations, e.g., of Resources • From attribution to involvement and coordination • Group dynamics among participants • Presentation of materials and negotiated compromise Aquaculture, Innovation and Social Transformation

13. (1) Hierarchical problem formulation:Participant Dependent/SiteIndependent Level 1: Goal Ecosystem Goal Level 2: Ecosystem components Resources Habitat Toxicology Activities Resources A,B,C,D Habitat X,Y,Z ToxicologyChemicalsR,S,T Activities K,L,M, N Level 3: Component Elements Aquaculture, Innovation and Social Transformation

14. Grand Manan System Components Biological/EcosystemResources SocioeconomicActivities Herring Weirs Lobster Scallop urchin drags Lobster traps Herring: Day/Night Fish Farm Sites Habitat Scallops Urchins Toxicology Rockweed Salt Marshes Chemical A Benthic Structures Chemical B Current Flow Chemical C Aquaculture, Innovation and Social Transformation

15. Valuation Issues • Common scale defined for valuation across components • Attributes of interacting model components translated to functional form • Multicriteria analyses applied to predefined problem hierarchy • Ideal ranking comparison for site evaluation by the participants Aquaculture, Innovation and Social Transformation