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A Status Report on the Second Global Soil Wetness Project GSWP-2

A Status Report on the Second Global Soil Wetness Project GSWP-2. Paul Dirmeyer and Xiang Gao Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Calverton, Maryland, USA. Context . CliC. COPES. GAPP. GLASS GCSS GABLS. (AMMA). GEWEX Global Land-Atmosphere System Study. LoCo. GSWP.

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A Status Report on the Second Global Soil Wetness Project GSWP-2

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  1. A Status Reporton the SecondGlobalSoil Wetness Project GSWP-2 Paul Dirmeyer and Xiang Gao Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Calverton, Maryland, USA

  2. Context CliC COPES GAPP GLASS GCSS GABLS (AMMA)

  3. GEWEX Global Land-Atmosphere System Study LoCo GSWP GCM inter-comparisons Global gridded model analyses Single column model analyses Land-surface model intercom-parisons (in situ)

  4. MODEL Institute Bucket University of Tokyo CLM-TOP University of Texas at Austin CBM/CHASM Macquarie University, Australia CLASS Meteorological Service of Canada CLM NASA GSFC/HSB COLA-SSiB COLA ECMWF ECMWF HY-SSiB NASA GSFC/CRB ISBA MétéoFrance/CNRM LAPUTA Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency LaD USGS & NOAA/GFDL MATSIRO Frontier RSGC MECMWF KNMI (Dutch MetOffice), Netherlands Mosaic NASA GSFC/HSB MOSES-2 Met Office, UK NOAH NOAA NCEP/EMC NSIPP-Catchment NASA GSFC/NSIPP (GMAO) ORCHIDEE IPSL, France SiBUC Kyoto University Sland University of Maryland SPONSOR Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences SWAP Institute of Water Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences VIC U. Arizona VISA, CLM-Top University of Texas at Austin GSWP-2 Modeling Status • Submitted • Imminent • Probably • Maybe • Bowed out

  5. Exp Description N1 Native Parameters (if applicable) P1 Hybrid ERA-40 precipitation (instead of NCEP/DOE) P2 NCEP/DOE hybrid with GPCC corrected for gauge undercatch (no satellite data) P3 NCEP/DOE hybrid with GPCC (no undercatch correction) P4 NCEP/DOE precipitation (no observational data) P5 NCEP/DOE hybrid with Xie daily gauge precipitation R1 NCEP/DOE radiation RS NCEP/DOE shortwave only RL NCEP/DOE longwave only R2 ERA-40 radiation M1 All NCEP meteorological data (no hybridization with observational data) M2 All ECMWF meteorological data (no hybridization with observational data) V1 U.Maryland vegetation class data I1 Climatological vegetation Sensitivity Experiments A • Computing and storage burdens are not trivial • Three suites of experiments • A: 15 May 2004 • B: 31 August • C: 15 October B ERA-40 precipitation (no observational data) B B C PE Hybrid ERA-40 precip. A R3 ISCCP radiation C C C A

  6. P1 Glitch P1 correction! - The precipitation files to use for P1 were listed incorrectly.  The files listed were not hybrid ERA-40 precipitation.  They were the original ERA-40 precipitation.  We have added a new experiment PE to represent what we had intended originally in P1. • We ask everyone doing P2 and/or P3 to perform PE as part of the precipitation suite.  If you have already submitted Suite B, we ask for PE to be submitted as part of Suite C, with the 15 October deadline. • If you have already submitted P1, we will use it.  It would be especially useful, though, if you also do P4.  That will give us a direct comparison between the original ERA-40 and NCEP/DOE precipitation. 

  7. R3 Added ISCCP radiation(thanks to Yuanchong Zhang and Bill Rossow for providing us with this data).  This is an observationally-based alternative to the SRB radiation used in the baseline simulation.  • It does not have the problems at the month boundaries that SRB does • It uses a different set of retrieval and QC algorithms than SRB.  You may wish to try this as an alternative to SRB or reanalysis radiation, but see the FAQ page for information on how the time averaging has been performed for this product (it is different than the other radiations).  Please see the ISCCP web site for more information on this product.

  8. Multi-Model Analysis • 1986-1995 daily mean fluxes, state variables at 1° over land (excl. Antarctica) • Consider all available land models (~16) • Now investigating methods for compositing (can we do better than simple average?) • Target: complete product by end of 2004

  9. Unbiased Forecast Variants Regression-improved individual forecast R • Let {Xi(t), i=1,…M} denote an ensemble of soil wetness forecasts produced by M models at a fixed location; an arbitrary linear combination of these forecasts is given by: Arithmetic Average C Regression-improved multimodel ensemble Mean forecast REM Regression-improved multimodel forecast Rall Kharin, V. V., and F. W. Zweirs, 2002, J. Climate, 15, 793-799.

  10. Skill Score Comparison for C, REM, and Rall 18 years, deep layer(s), 6 models

  11. Transferability • First step (½ Illinois to other ½ Illinois) • Individual models and simple compositing is unaffected. • More complex compositing shows a small loss in skill. • Real test – Illinois to China…

  12. - 0~5cm soil moisture - 0~5cm soil T. - 50/100cm soil T. - Vegetation canopy T. - Canopy interception - LAI, Air T. • - Landmask • - Soil texture • class (sand% • and clay%) • Elevation • Vegetation type Microwave Emission Model Brightness Temperature Remote Sensing Application • To develop and test large-scale validation and assimilation techniques over land, by coupling the land surface models with the “validated” state-of-the art L-band microwave emission model (L-MEB*) to simulate prognostic brightness temperature observable remotely from satellite microwave radiometers. Land Surface Model [*acknowledgement: Jean-Pierre Wigneron (INRA), Thierry Pellarin (CNRM), and Jean-Christophe Calvet (CNRM)]

  13. L-MEB Model Validation Data

  14. Validation of L-MEB Model Use observed soil moisture, soil temperature, etc. as inputs to L-MEB

  15. Statistics of L-MEB Validation

  16. Coupled LSS-MEB Validation(Washita’92, OK) Use LSS soil moisture, soil temperature, etc. as inputs to L-MEB

  17. Coupled LSS-MEB Validation(Soil Characteristics Comparison)

  18. Coupled LSS-MEB Validation(Precipitation Comparison) Grid 1 Grid 2

  19. Microwave Analogs Example global 1° map of the synthetic L-band H-polarized brightness temperature corresponding to the incidence angle and equator crossing time of HYDROS Satellite for June 01, 1992.

  20. Presenting GSWP-2 • Session at AMS Annual Mtg., Hydrology Conf. • San Diego, CA, USA – 10-13 January 2005 • GEWEX 5th Int’l. Science Conf. • Costa Mesa, CA, USA – 20-24 June 2005 • Abstract submission deadline 16 January 2005 • EGU (Apr 2005 – Vienna) • Spring AGU (May 2005 – New Orleans) • AMS (Jan 2006 – Atlanta)

  21. Journal Special Issue/Section? Do we want to do a special issue? • J. Geophys. Res. (efficient – no delays) • J. Hydrometeor. (better targeted audience) • Glob. Planet. Change (easier?) • …

  22. Proposal for Baseline, etc. • COLA = Continue with multi-model analysis based on B0 simulations • Climatology (12 months), Monthly (120), Daily • Call it “GSWP-2 Version 1.0” • Japan = Produce a new baseline forcing (including spin up) • Improved based on problems found, solutions suggested • Call it “B1”, release, and encourage modelers to submit in 2005 • Sensitivity studies continue based on B0 • Sensitivity studies not as sensitive to systematic errors as analysis • COLA = Produce a multi-model analysis based on B1 simulations • Call it “Version 2.0”

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