Presented By: Shazia Shahid Sustainable Urbanization Section-UN HABITAT

1. CLIMATE CHANGE Presented By: ShaziaShahid Sustainable Urbanization Section-UN HABITAT

2. Definition A change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability over comparable time periods. (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC)

4. Surface temperature trend

5. Causes of Climate change Natural: • Volcanic Eruptions : Sulphur dioxide (SO2), water vapors, dust, ash, CO2 and aerosols. • Ocean Current • Earth orbital Changes • Solar Variations Human/Man Made: 1.Agriculture (7% i.e. methane from livestock and manure, nitrous oxide from chemical fertilizers) 2. Industries (4% of Carbon emissions, 21% from transport, 65% from the use of fuel to generate energy) 3.Deforestation 4. Land use patterns 5. Other activities(home appliances e.g. heating systems, computers etc, all use energy produced or transport)

6. negative aspects of CC

7. Impacts on World Wide • Increase in the mean global sea level (1-2mm per year over the last century) • World wide retreat of glaciers • Decrease in snow cover and melting of permafrost • Shifts of plant and animal ranges • Earlier flowering of plants • Birds breeding seasons and emergence of insects • Increased events of coral bleaching • By 2050, crop yields could decrease up by up to 30% in South Asia • By 2050, freshwater availability in South and South-East Asia, particularly in large river basins is projected to decrease by 12-20%.

8. Impacts on Pakistan • Temperature increase by 0.61 to 1 degree Celsius • Precipitation has decreased 10 to 15 % • 18-32% increase in rainfall • 5% decrease in humidity • Radiation increases 0.5 to 0.7% • Declines in water tables • Freshwater will be decreased • Incidences of morbidity, mortality, cholera etc. will increase due to floods and droughts • Aggravate the existing social inequalities of resource use and intensify social factors leading to instability, conflicts, displacement of people and changes in migration patterns. • Decrease in crop yields

9. Why Can’t Ecosystem Just Adapt? • The rate of global climate change is projected to be more rapid than any to have occurred in the last 10,000 years. 2. Humans have altered the structure of many of the world’s ecosystems. Deforestation, plowed soils, used rangelands to graze their domesticated animals, introduced non-native species to many regions and intensively fished lakes, rivers and oceans. These all changes in the structure of world’s ecosystem have made them less resilient to automatically adapt to climate change. 3. Pollution as well as other indirect effects of the utilization of natural resources, has also increased since the beginning of the industrial revolution.

10. Responding to Climate Change • There are two key ways of responding to climate change: • Adaptto the changes • Reduce affects through Mitigation Measures the sources (emission abatement) or enhance the sink (sequestration) of GHG

11. Adapting Measures (Few) • Increase access to high quality information about the impacts of climate change • Improving technological responses by setting in place early warning systems and information systems to enhance disaster preparedness. • Practicing energy efficiency through changes in individual lifestyles and businesses • Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods to climate changes through infra-structural • Promoting good governance and responsible policy by integrating risk management and adaptation • Developing new and innovative farm production practices, including new crop varieties and irrigation techniques. • Improving forest management and biodiversity conservation • Empowering communities and local stakeholders so that they participate actively in vulnerability assessment and implementation of adaptation • Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at all scales, levels and sectors. • Help decrease pressure on the present forest belt by exploring convincing options to developing substitute energy resources • Promotion of research to measure the ongoing damages to the natural environment of mountainous communities specially in northern areas

12. Mitigation Measures • Increasing the share of renewable energy in the national energy mix to limit GHG emissions and reduce dependency on expensive and dirty energy resources. • Waste to energy programs should be promoted. A good potential for public private partnerships in Pakistan working on renewable energy as well as solid waste management schemes. • Creating carbon sinks by aggressively promoting forestation programs to increase forest cover. Needs should be identify and plan accordingly. • Promoting energy conservation programs and campaigns. By- laws need to be introduced for improving the energy efficiency of buildings. • Introducing mass public transit system, promotion of CNG vehicles etc. • Introducing laws for improving the fuel efficiency of vehicles and restricting use of ageing vehicles. The average Pakistani vehicle emits 25 times as much carbon as the average vehicle in the US.

13. Initiatives Taken by Pakistan • National Climate Change Policy is under preparation. The policy covers both adaptation and mitigation measures. * Adaptation covers water resources, agriculture and livestock, human health, forestry and biodiversity, other vulnerable ecosystems like mountain areas-rangeland, arid, hyper-arid ecosystem, coastal and marine. * Mitigation Measures covers energy, transport, agriculture & livestock and carbon sinks/forestation. • Established Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) at Ministry of Environment (MOE). * Pak. Ratified Kyoto protocol in Jan 2005. * Ministry of environment has been declared as “Designated National Authority (DNA)” for CDM and DG (Environment) is the “ focal point” for DNA. * CDM has been established under DNA for promotion of CDM and policy/technical support to DNA. * Pakistan National Operational Strategy for CDM has been approved in February 2006. • Preparation and implementation of number of CC projects. E.g. Energy, waste management, transportation, industrial process, land use, land use change and forestry, agriculture and livestock practices etc.

14. The Kyoto Protocol • Adopted on 11th Dec 1997 in kyoto, Japan, and entered into forced on 16th Feb 2005. • It distinguish two types of countries: Annex-I countries: With binding emission targets (industrialized countries): * Western and Eastern Europe, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, Ukraine etc. Non-Annex I countries: With voluntary participation (developing Countries): * China, India, Pakistan, South Africa, Philippines, Uruguay, Brazil and other developing countries. • Three mechanisms of kyoto protocol are : 1. Emissions Trading Schemes (ETS): allows developed countries that exceed their target emissions to offset them by using “credits’ from countries that stay below their emissions targets. Emission quotas were agreed with the intention of reducing overall emissions by developed countries by 5 percent of the 1990 levels by the end of 2012. For the five years compliance period from 2008-2012, countries that emit less than their quota will be able to sell emissions credits to countries that exceed their quota. In 2010, the value of global carbon market was estimated to be worth a staggering US $ 144 billion. 2. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) : Operational in 2006 enables emission reduction projects in developing countries to earn certified emission reduction credits, which can be then traded or sold. These credits can be purchased by developed countries to achieve a twofold purpose: to meet their own emissions reduction targets under Kyoto protocol and to assist other countries in achieving sustainable development through climate change mitigation. 3. Joint Implementation: It allows developed countries to invest in emissions reduction activities in other developed countries. A developed country can thus earn emission reduction units from an emission reduction or emission removal project in other developed country which can be counted towards meeting its Kyoto target.

15. Donors in Pakistan for Climate Change • World Bank to support development of CC strategy and Global Change Impact Studies Center (GCSIC) through its under-preparation Technical Assistance Loan for the Implementation of National Environment Policy. • One UN Joint Program includes intervention on climate change. • JICA is also considering to develop a $ 300 million budgetary support program on climate change (before the earthquake). • DfID, at one point in time, was also keen to invest in climate change program for Pakistan.

16. World Bank Initiatives • In 2005, the Clean Energy Investment Framework was created to accelerate clean energy investments in developing countries. The framework function as a collaborative endeavor between multilateral development banks and countries to identify investments needed to accelerate the transition to low carbon economy and support adaption programs. • In 2008, a Strategic Framework was prepared to guide the World Bank’s work on climate change issues with a focus on supporting climate actions in country-led development processes, mobilizing additional finance, facilitating the development of market based financing mechanism, leveraging private sector resources, supporting the development and deployment of new technologies and enhancing policy, research, knowledge and capacity building. • In 2008, the Climate Investment Fund was launched with pledges of US $ 10 billion to fund the demonstration, deployment and transfer of low carbon programmes to developing countries. Two main funds under this initiative are: * Clean Technology Fund for activities related to power sector, transport and energy efficiency. * Strategic Climate Fund to support pilot approaches with the potential for scaling up. It relates to mitigation in cities, including energy efficiency in buildings and industries.

17. Focused Area For UNITED NATIONS • Adaptation: high level committee on programmes of the Chief executive Board of the UN • Technology Transfer: UNIDO and UNDESA • Reduction of emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD): UNDP, FAO, UNEP • Financing mitigation and adaptation action: UNDP and World Bank group • Capacity Building: UNDP and UNEP

18. Contribution of UN HABITAT ? • UN HABITAT’s Cities and Climate Change Initiatives (CCCI) launched in 2008, seeks to promote collaboration between local governments and their associations and partners on climate change related topics ,enhance policy dialogue between local and national governments on addressing climate change, support local governments in addressing climate change impacts while reducing GHG emissions and foster awareness, education and capacity building for the implementation of climate change policies and strategies. • CCCI initially helped selected cities in Asia , Africa and Latin America to carry out climate change assessment. These cities already at risk of natural disasters. Help cities to deepen their assessment in priority areas, develop climate change strategies and action plans, mainstream findings into ongoing planning processes and build capacity. • CCCI is developing capacity building tools to help cities access carbon finance or to develop climate change plans, drawing on local experiences. Pakistan Office: • Adapting Water Conservation Campaign • Prepared Dialogue paper and concept paper on Urbanization and climate change • Proposal on “Campaign regarding Water Conservation”

19. Thank You All……… and open for discussions or comments