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UK Economic Recovery and Construction Forecasts: Insights from NFB Conference 2013

The NFB Conference 2013, led by Noble Francis, highlighted the UK's economic recovery and its implications for the construction industry. With UK GDP recovering, real wages remain a challenge. Interest rates are projected to remain low, while inflation stays above target, as the Bank of England focuses on growth. Opportunities in construction amount to £110 billion, primarily in London and the South East. The near-term growth is driven by private housing and infrastructure. However, potential risks loom with government spending cuts and supply chain shortages.

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UK Economic Recovery and Construction Forecasts: Insights from NFB Conference 2013

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  1. NFB Conference 2013:Construction Forecasts DR. NOBLE FRANCIS Economics Director

  2. UK economy

  3. Economic Recovery • UK GDP is recovering but what about real wages? • Interest rates to stay low • Inflation above target • Bank of England clearly focused on growth

  4. Opportunities going forward in construction

  5. Total Construction £110 billion of work Opportunities going forward, primarily in London & South East Near-term growth due to private housing & infrastructure Medium-term recovery also from growth in commercial

  6. Private Housing Q3 private housing output 12% higher than a year ago Govt policy boosts: Funding for Lending FirstBuy Help to Buy What happens when the policies finish?

  7. Private Housing RM&I Real wages and consumer spending expected to boost sector Green Deal and ECO are not offsetting the end of CERT & holding back growth

  8. Public Housing RM&I On the negative side, government spending cuts On the positive side, Green Deal could make more of an impact in the public sector

  9. Shortages? • Bricks in September: • Production 14% higher than a year ago • Stocks 34% lower than a year ago • Building contractors in Q3: • 34% reported difficulty recruiting bricklayers • 32% reported difficulty recruiting plasterers

  10. For Further Information Contact: Noble.Francis@constructionproducts.org.ukwww.constructionproducts.org.uk@NobleFrancis

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