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Anthropogenic Emission Trend Drivers, 1850-1990 Global Visibility (Smoke??) Trends

Anthropogenic Emission Trend Drivers, 1850-1990 Global Visibility (Smoke??) Trends. Rudolf Husar, CAPITA Washington University. GISS Carbonaceous Aerosol Trends Workshop November 24, 2003, NYC.

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Anthropogenic Emission Trend Drivers, 1850-1990 Global Visibility (Smoke??) Trends

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  1. Anthropogenic Emission Trend Drivers, 1850-1990Global Visibility (Smoke??) Trends Rudolf Husar, CAPITA Washington University GISS Carbonaceous Aerosol Trends Workshop November 24, 2003, NYC

  2. Atmospheric Environment 33 (1999) 3435-3444Estimating Historical Anthropogenic Global Sulfur Emission Patterns for the Period 1850-1990[1]Allen S. Lefohna,, Janja D. Husarb, Rudolf B. Husarb

  3. Global S Emission Trend, 1850-1990

  4. Visibility-Population Density ComparisonIn India bext and population density compare well

  5. AVHRR satellite optical depth data over the oceans, 1988-90

  6. MODIS AOT, 2002 MODIS Team ATSR Fire Locations 1993 Features of Global Smoke Emissions

  7. MISR Seasonal AOT (MISR Team) Major smoke emission regions by season

  8. Continental Visibility data • Surface visual range observations. • Over 8000 stations' throughout the six continents. • The on line data files from NCDC • Explored: January, 1994 through October 1997. • 1997- data available

  9. Extinction Coefficient Contours, km-1

  10. DJF MAM JJA SON West Central Africa MISR Dec Jan Feb peak Regular, each year No trends ??

  11. DJF MAM JJA SON Central Africa MISR Dec Jan Feb peak Regular, each year No trends ??

  12. DJF MAM JJA SON Central Africa MISR Jun Jul Aug peak Regular, each year No trends

  13. DJF MAM JJA SON South America MISR Aug Sep peak Regular + Irregular Upward trend

  14. DJF MAM JJA SON South America MISR Aug Sep peak Regular + Irregular Upward trend

  15. DJF MAM JJA SON Central America MISR Mar Apr May peak Regular + Irregular Downward trend

  16. DJF MAM JJA SON Indochina MISR Apr & Oct peak Irregular Upward trends ??

  17. DJF MAM JJA SON Indonesia MISR Apr & Oct peak Irregular Upward trends ??

  18. DJF MAM JJA SON Central America MISR Mar Apr May peak Regular + Irregular Downward trend

  19. DJF MAM JJA SON Central America MISR Mar Apr May peak Regular + Irregular Downward trend

  20. South America and Central Africa Extinction Coefficient

  21. India MISR Dec Jan Feb peak Regular, each year No trends

  22. Conclusions? • Global fossil fuel consumption trends data are available • Require historical emission factors for carbonatious aerosols • Satellite data provide spatial/seasonal pattern • Limited trends information over cloud-free areas • No aerosol speciation • No info on vertical distribution • Visibility data provide 30-40-year record • Surface concentration over continental areas only • No speciation • Semi quantitative

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