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What If… The Washington Region Grew Differently?

Explore different scenarios for transportation and land-use in the Washington Region, including shifting job and housing growth and building new roads or transit. Understand how travel conditions may change by 2030.

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What If… The Washington Region Grew Differently?

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  1. What If…The Washington Region Grew Differently? Public Forum on Alternative Transportation and Land-Use Scenarios National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board DRAFT 10-20-04

  2. Study of “What If” Scenarios • What ifjob and housing growth were shifted? What if new roads or transit were built? • How would 2030 travel conditions change? • Not looking at “how to,” just “what if.” DRAFT 10-20-04

  3. Presentation Outline • Historical and Forecast Trends • “What If” Scenarios: A Building Block Approach • Alternative Land Use Scenarios • What Do the Scenarios Tell Us? • Next Study Phase DRAFT 10-20-04

  4. Historical and Forecast Trends DRAFT 10-20-04

  5. The Washington Region • Approximately 3,000 square miles • Includes 4.5 million people and 2.8 million jobs • The National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB) prepares a financially constrained, 30-year transportation plan for the region DRAFT 10-20-04

  6. Employment is Growing Faster than Population 1970: 3 Million 2000: 4.5 Million 1970: 1.5 Million 2000: 2.8 Million 2000: 4.5 Million 2030: 6.2 Million 2000: 2.8 Million 2030: 4.2 Million DRAFT 10-20-04

  7. The Highway System Won’t Keep Pace 2000: 109 Million 2030: 150 Million 2000: 15,300 Miles 2030: 17,600 Miles DRAFT 10-20-04

  8. Most Transportation Dollars Are Needed for MaintenanceLittle money is available for new transportation projects New Roads and Transit 23% 77% Operations & Preservation DRAFT 10-20-04

  9. Congested Flow Congested Flow (Average Speed 30 to 50 mph) (Average Speed 30 to 50 mph) Stop and Go Conditions Stop and Go Conditions (Average Speed < 30 mph) (Average Speed < 30 mph) Most of the Beltway Will Be Stop and GoEvening Highway Congestion 2000 and 2030 2000 2030 DRAFT 10-20-04

  10. Metro Platforms and Trains Will Be PackedMorning Peak-Hour Transit Congestion: 2000 and 2030 Congested 2000 2030 Highly Congested DRAFT 10-20-04

  11. Looking at “What If” Scenarios: A Building Block Approach DRAFT 10-20-04

  12. What if current plans don’t change? • Regional Transportation Plan - Projects with anticipated funding • Current Growth Forecasts - Jobs and households Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts 1 DRAFT 10-20-04

  13. How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030?Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts 2010: 125 Million 2030: 150 Million 2010: 1,700 Miles 2030: 2,600 Miles 2010: 1 Million 2030: 1.3 Million DRAFT 10-20-04

  14. What if the capacity of the current transit system was maximized? • Longer trains, station improvements, expanded bus service, and more commuter trains to accommodate projected demand “Enhanced Transit” Scenario 2 Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts 1 DRAFT 10-20-04

  15. How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030?“Enhanced Transit” Scenario Current Plan Enhanced Transit 2010: 125 Million 2010: 1,700 Miles 2010: 1 Million DRAFT 10-20-04

  16. What if land use patterns also changed? 3 Alternative Land Use Scenarios 3 “Enhanced Transit” Scenario 2 Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts 1 DRAFT 10-20-04

  17. What are some of the key issues the land use scenarios might address? DRAFT 10-20-04

  18. Issue #1: Job Growth is Outpacing Household Growth Growth 2010 – 2030 (Thousands) Additional Households Needed to Balance Jobs Forecast Job Growth The region must “import” workers from as far away as West Virginia and Pennsylvania Forecast Household Growth DRAFT 10-20-04 Assumes 1.5 Workers/Household

  19. Regional Activity Cluster What if more people who worked here lived here? WV Scenario #1: “More Households” • Increase household growth to balance forecast job growth • Locate households in regional “Activity Clusters” Balt. VA More Households “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts DRAFT 10-20-04 Increase household growth by 200,000

  20. Scenario #1: “More Households”How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030? Baseline (Enhanced Transit) More Households 2010: 125 Million 2010: 1,700 Miles 2010: 1 Million DRAFT 10-20-04

  21. Scenario #1: “More Households” Baseline (Enhanced Transit) More Households 2010: 125 Million Even with 200,000 more households, daily vehicle miles of travel would go down. Plus… DRAFT 10-20-04

  22. Scenario #1: More Households”Under Scenario #1, the average person would drive two miles less per day. 2010:23.4miles/ person 2030 Baseline:24.2miles/ person 2030 Scenario #1:22.1miles/ person Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel per Person Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Scenario #1 DRAFT 10-20-04

  23. Issue #2: Workers are Living Farther Away from Their Jobs • Inner jurisdictions – most job growth • Outer jurisdictions – lion’s share of household growth • Average commute – more than 30 minutes DRAFT 10-20-04

  24. Regional Activity Cluster What if people lived closer to their jobs? Scenario #2A: “Households In” • Shift household growth to inner jurisdictions (to get people closer to jobs) Households In “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts DRAFT 10-20-04 Shift 84,000 households

  25. Scenario #2A: “Households In”How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030? Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Households In 2010: 125 Million 2010: 1,700 Miles 2010: 1 Million DRAFT 10-20-04

  26. Scenario 2A: “Households In”This scenario would have the biggest impact on morning congestion. Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Households In 2010: 1,700 Miles DRAFT 10-20-04

  27. Regional Activity Cluster What if jobs were located closer to where people live? Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out” • Shift job growth to outer jurisdictions (to get jobs closer to new housing) Jobs Out “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts DRAFT 10-20-04 Shift 82,000 jobs

  28. Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out”How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030? Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Jobs Out 2010: 125 Million 2010: 1,700 Miles 2010: 1 Million DRAFT 10-20-04

  29. Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out”Transit use would not grow as quickly.(Not enough transit service in outer jurisdictions.) Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Jobs Out 2010: 1 Million DRAFT 10-20-04

  30. Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out”But the scenario still would slow the growth of congestion. Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Jobs Out 2010: 1,700 Miles DRAFT 10-20-04

  31. Issue #3: East-West Divide A 1999 Brookings Institution report highlighted disparities between the eastern and western parts of the region Job Growth Rate 1990 – 2000 DRAFT 10-20-04

  32. Up to 30 minutes Up to 40 minutes Over 40 minutes Issue #3: East-West DivideWest-bound travel clogs the roads during morning rush hour Average Commute Time Morning Rush Hour DRAFT 10-20-04

  33. Regional Activity Cluster What if there were more development on the eastern side of the region? Scenario #3: “Region Undivided” • Shift job and household growth from West to East Region Undivided “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts DRAFT 10-20-04 Shift 57,000 households and 114,000 jobs

  34. Scenario #3: “Region Undivided”How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030? The trends are encouraging. Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Region Undivided 2010: 125 Million 2010: 1,700 Miles 2010: 1 Million DRAFT 10-20-04

  35. Outside Transit Station Areas 30% 70% Inside Transit Station Areas 20% 80% Issue #4: Most Growth Located Outside Transit Station Areas Employment Growth 2010 to 2030 Household Growth 2010 to 2030 DRAFT 10-20-04

  36. What if people lived and worked closer to transit? Scenario #4: “Transit Oriented” • Locate job and household growth around transit stations Transit Oriented Development “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts Metro Rail Commuter Rail Bus DRAFT 10-20-04 Shift 125,000 households and 150,000 jobs

  37. Scenario #4: “Transit Oriented”How would travel conditions change between 2010 and 2030? Again, the trends are encouraging. Baseline (Enhanced Transit) Transit Oriented 2010: 125 Million 2010: 1,700 Miles 2010: 1 Million DRAFT 10-20-04

  38. What do these scenarios tell us? DRAFT 10-20-04

  39. The scenarios show some favorable trends. • Transit trips would increase. • The growth in morning congestion would be slowed. DRAFT 10-20-04

  40. Why aren’t the impacts greater? DRAFT 10-20-04

  41. Most jobs and housing for 2030 are already in place. 2030 Households 13% Underway or in the pipeline Growth by 2010 Already in place Growth by 2030 15% Households in 2000 Affected by scenarios 72% (Of course, some of this might be rezoned or redeveloped in the future…) DRAFT 10-20-04

  42. Scenario impacts may be small regionally, but large locally. Before After DRAFT 10-20-04

  43. Significant change takes time. • Scenarios only look out to 2030, but impacts may be greatest in 2040, 2050, and beyond • For example, just look at how long it took to get Metro in place . . . Courtesy of WMATA DRAFT 10-20-04

  44. Is there a way to magnify the impacts? DRAFT 10-20-04

  45. The impacts might be greater if transportation improvements were added. For example: New roads, bridges, transit + = ? Future stages of the study will include transportation scenarios… DRAFT 10-20-04

  46. Impacts might be even greater if we combined scenarios. • For example, what if we combined: • Scenario #3 (Region Undivided) • Scenario #4 (Transit Oriented Development) • and transportation improvements ? New roads, bridges, transit + + = ? Future stages of the study will look at such combinations… DRAFT 10-20-04

  47. Next Study Phase Combining Scenarios 5 • Alternative transportation scenarios • New rail lines? • New bus routes? • New roads? • New bridges? • Combining transportation and land use scenarios Alternative Transportation Scenarios 4 3 Alternative Land Use Scenarios 2 “Enhanced Transit” Scenario Regional Transportation Plan and Current Growth Forecasts 1 DRAFT 10-20-04

  48. Discussion Questions • What did you think of the presentation? • What did you think of the scenarios? • What transportation scenarios should be looked at? DRAFT 10-20-04

  49. For more information, contact the Transportation Planning Board: (202) 962-3200 TPBPublicComment@mwcog.org www.mwcog.org/transportation DRAFT 10-20-04

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