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Master in Engineering Policy and Management of Technology

The telecommunications industry at a crossroads: Uncertain economics overpower mazy technological innovation. Master in Engineering Policy and Management of Technology Instituto Superior Tecnico, Lisbon, Portugal P. Ferreira February 1 st , 2002. Agenda. FEDERAL. FIRMS. MARKET.

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Master in Engineering Policy and Management of Technology

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  1. The telecommunications industry at a crossroads:Uncertain economics overpowermazy technological innovation Master in Engineering Policy and Management of Technology Instituto Superior Tecnico, Lisbon, Portugal P. Ferreira February 1st, 2002

  2. Agenda FEDERAL FIRMS MARKET Telecommunications Act ARPANET NSF Backbone optics 1 3 CHALLENGES 70 80 2 90 00 10 4 TCP/IP WWW Local Loop Private ownership

  3. The Early Days 1 • The cold war times: the ARPANET (’69) • BBN (AS#1) (70s) and packet switching • TCP/IP (’74) and the OSI model (80’s) • The NSF backbone (early 90s)

  4. Technology & Innovation 2 • The World Wide Web (‘89) and browsers (’93) • Classless Inter-domain Routing (’91/’92) • Border Gateway Protocol (’94/’95) • Peering: Bill&Keep, Complex routing policies 23000 20000 6800 35000 30000 400000 30000 2300000 80000 Source: Matrix Internet and Directory Services (MIDS)

  5. Private Business 3 • The industry (infra-structure): • Quest: fiber deployment • Cisco: the routing oligopoly • AT&T: telephony and data businesses • Akamai: web-site mirroring and caching • Services and e-business: • Amazon: sales front-end • eBay: general item auction • Vehix: automotive “vortal” • BandX: bandwidth trading

  6. Private Business 3 • Telecommunications Act of 1996 • The current backbone: • Optical Networks and cross-connects (e.g. cost model) • Wavelength division multiplexing • Peering agreements and interconnection • The access loop: • Unbundling and competition • Digital subscriber line and cable modems (e.g. cost models) • Wireless technologies

  7. Future Challenges 4 • Pricing models: • Flat rate, Usage rate, Congestion rate • Quality of service: IntServ, DiffServ, CBR • Bandwidth trading: • Extreme competition with SLAs • Moore’s law, direct linking, GigaPOPs

  8. Conclusions(with an EP perspective) competition Overpowered by Uncertain economics policy unbundling 90s Mazy innovation economics 80s 00s technology backbone local loop

  9. Bibliography • Technology: • “ADSL Deployment”, David Pearah available at http://itel.mit.edu/xdsl/public/tprc-paper.pdf • "A Rose by Any Other Name: Unbundling, Open Access and Cable Data Networks", Tseng et. al. available at http://itel.mit.edu/ under research, papers & publications, 2000 • “Wireless Networks in Europe: A three step evolution”, James Guyton available from www.murrow.org under publication/theses • “Provision of sufficient transmission capacity for broadband mobile multimedia: a step toward 4G”, Manuel Dinis and Jose Fernandes, IEEE Communications special issue, August 2001 • “QoS Support for an all-IP system beyond 3G”, Tomas Robles et. al. IEEE Communications special issue, August 2001

  10. Bibliography • Technology: • “Optical Networks and the Future of Broadband Services”, Ferreira et. al. Special Issue of Intl. Journal on Technological Forecasting and Social Change, available on the web at http://web.mit.edu/~pmf/www • “Best Effort versus Spectrum Markets”, Lee McKnight, W. Lehr and R. Linsenmayer available on the web at http://www.tprc.org/tprc01/agenda01.htm • “A broadband access market framework: towards consumer service level agreements” McKnight and Lehr, available at http://itel.mit.edu under publications/2000 • "Do Appliances Threaten Internet Innovation?", Gillett et. al. IEEE Communications special issue, October 2001

  11. Bibliography • Business models and industry: (for more info visit www.murrow.org) Creative destruction: Internet telephony Business survival strategies in MIT press - spring 2001 The global internet economy MIT press – spring 2001 Internet economics MIT press - 1998

  12. Academic Research Sites Program Research on Information Economy http://www.si.umich.edu/~prie/ School of Information Management & Systems http://www.sims.berkeley.edu/ Internet Telecoms & Convergence http://itel.mit.edu Information Network Institute http://www.ini.cmu.edu/

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