2010-2020: A NEW DECADE OF CHANGES IN REFRIGERATION AND AC

1. 2010-2020: A NEW DECADE OF CHANGES IN REFRIGERATION AND AC Lambert Kuijpers Technical University, Eindhoven, NL UNEP TOC Refrigeration, AC and Heat Pumps Atmosphere 2009 “Natural Refrigerants” Brussels 19-20 October 2009 Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants 1

2. The increased interest in “natural refrigerants” • Refrigerants such as ammonia, hydrocarbons, ethers, carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide etc. were the ones considered before the synthetic fluorocarbon refrigerants • For CFCs, refrigeration and AC considered HCFC and HFC (3rd generation) refrigerants as replacements; the chemical industry now develops low-GWP HFCs (the “4th generation”) • The IIR started meetings in 1994-1996 on “natural refrigerants”, that became “Gustav Lorentzen” conferences • UNEP TEAP reported on the potential of HFCs-PFCs in 1998 • In 1999 a so called “IPCC TEAP Joint Expert Meeting” took place in Petten, NL, which considered both climate and ozone layer protection; it was a meeting where there was substantial discussion on non-fluorocarbon refrigerants Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

3. The UNFCCC COP-8 in New Delhi, 2002 • In 2002, at the Climate Meeting in New Delhi, IPCC and TEAP agreed in principle to do a Special Report on “Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System” (afterwards officially agreed at MP MOP-14, Rome) • Published in 2005, after government approvement in Addis Abeba, the SR looked at HFCs and HFC replacements, it made first good estimates of banks, it studied production trends for synthetic refrigerants and mentioned the increasing potential for low GWP (natural non-fluorocarbon, other) refrigerants • In principle, the SR set the scene for Decisions XVIII/12, XIX/6, as well as the decisions XX/7 and XX/8 on banks and emissions, and on HCFC and HFC alternatives, respectively Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

4. Climate component • This IPCC TEAP Special Report 2005 --as well as its Supplement Report with specific data on banks and emissions-- really introduced the climate component (“the climate aspect”) into many of the discussions and decisions under the Montreal Protocol • This is a good reason for describing here the results of the work requested to the Assessment Panel in various Montreal Protocol decisions, for elaborating on the climate component and its relation to natural refrigerants Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

5. Outline • Introduction • Decision XIX/6, the accelerated HCFC phase-out • Banks and emissions • Decision XX/7 on banks • Decision XX/8 on alternatives • The proposed HFC Amendment to the Protocol • Future outlook • Final comments to natural refrigerant applications Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

6. Climate impact of ODS avoided in 2 ways By bank management • Montreal Protocol Parties are currently giving consideration to means of managing banks • Bank management is expensive and may exceed available grant-funding from MLF and other sources, in many cases • Leveraging carbon finance may be an important component in dealing with banks By accelerating the phasing out of HCFC use • Decision XIX/6 provides the framework for doing this • Both ozone and climate benefits can result from this action • Climate impact much depends on the choice of the alternative …so what does Decision XIX/6 say about climate? Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

7. Decision XIX/6 • ‘…… encourages Partiesto promote the selection of alternatives to HCFCs that minimise environmental impacts, in particular impacts on climate, as well as meeting other health, safety and economic considerations’ • ‘To agree that the Executive Committee, when developing and applying funding criteria for projects and programmes [….] give(s) priority to cost-effective projects and programmes which focus inter alia on : • Substitutes and alternatives that minimise other impacts on the environment, including on the climate, taking into account global warming potential, energy use and other relevant factors Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

8. Giving priority … what does it mean ? • This could be “giving priority” in terms of timing, funding or overall selection • Prioritising timing only works if the technologies of choice are already available • Prioritisation of funding would mean that more funds would go to projects with climate benefits • However, does this mean conversely that less funds should go to projects with climate dis-benefits? • Prioritising in overall selection could mean that there are technologies that would not be supported Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

9. Back to Decision XIX/6 • Climate benefit in Decision XIX/6 is an important criterion • In how far can the climate benefit be realised by natural refrigerants, related to superiour or high energy efficiency, low GWP, and acceptable costs for conversion projects for developing countries (supported by the Multilateral Fund) • Developments for low GWP HFC refrigerants are continuing • In how far can climate benefit be better realised (given the above conditions) by natural refrigerants compared to new --and further to be developed-- low GWP fluorocarbon (HFC or HFO) chemicals ? • At this stage there are clearly still uncertainties Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

10. Emissions and Consumption Control of consumption Control of emission (Montreal Protocol) (Kyoto Protocol) Controlling commercial availability Providing incentives and of newly produced material monitoring to reduce emissions vis-à-vis other GHG CFC X HCFC X HFC X ODS emissions from banks are not controlled ! Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

11. Bank sizes foams and refrigeration and AC Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

12. Banks: observations • CFC banks in countries are already small except for some refrigeration sectors in developing countries • HCFC banks are still to a large degree “in operation” (and replacement will come in due time) • Foams banks are huge in particular in developed countries, but difficult to reach (buildings) • Although the potential is large, more than 20 Gt CO2 from the point of view of climate relevance, • In reality the chance of avoiding of emissions from banks may be much smaller; also related to (un)successful recovery • Destruction costs related to specific efforts, infrastructure... Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

13. Banks: Decision XX/7 report • The amount of material in the bank will at a given moment be released to the waste stream, this over a number of years, which could exceed 15 years (=lifetime of products) • Foam in building applications difficult to reach, at high effort • There is a significant climate impact in the refrigerant releases in both developed and developing countries • Refrigerators (and their foams containing ODS) are important, due to the high numbers in operation globally • However, only part of the emissions from the bank can be avoided at relatively high cost; XX/7 reports give figures for the costs involved (order of US$ 1-3 billion/year globally) Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

14. The banks issue in future • Decision XX/7 work concentrated on a study of ODS banks • In future, the banks that are released to the waste stream will increasingly contain HFC substances • In the numbers derived (20 Gt CO2 eq.) this HFC content was already considered • If the capture of emissions (avoiding of emissions) will cost large amounts of money, which part could potentially be invested in converting to refrigerants that do not need emission avoiding such as ODS and HFCs for climate reasons ? • Could (part of) this future cost to society in either developed or developing countries be separated and invested upfront ? • Does this give an extra opportunity to natural refrigerants ? Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

15. Decision XX/8 on alternatives • Montreal Protocol Parties requested an overview of alternatives to HCFCs and HFCs in Decision XX/8 • A long presentation was done in Geneva in July 2009 • All sectors (not only refrigeration and AC) were highlighted, however, most of the attention was paid to all the subsectors of refrigeration and AC • Some of the statements made for the different subsectors in refrigeration and AC follow below Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

16. Decision XX/8 (2) • Domestic Refrigeration: HC-600a use expanding, and manufacturing is changing from HFC-134a to HC-600a • in Japan, USA, other countries • change driven by lower GWP, possibility of carbon credits, governmental incentives and restrictions • Commercial Refrigeration: indirect systems using CO2 as a heat transfer fluid have been developed, as well as CO2, HC and NH3 and HFC blends are being used in Europe as primary refrigerants since more than 10 years and are currently expanding from a small percentage of the European installed base Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

17. Decision XX/8 (3) • Commercial Refrigeration: small vending units increasingly apply hydrocarbons or CO2. A definite choice for the future concerning low GWP refrigerants for (large) centralised systems has not yet been made; the technical solutions are still under evaluation • Large size refrigeration: there is widespread use of ammonia, as well as emergent use of carbon dioxide where ammonia is not suitable. HCFCs were used in some markets, but HFCs have not been readily accepted as an alternative due to cost and reliability issues Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

18. Decision XX/8 (4) Unitary AC: HFC refrigerants, the R-410A and R-407C blends, have been dominant replacements for HCFC-22 in all categories of unitary air conditioners. Hydrocarbons have been used in some applications; including lower capacity portable room units and split system air conditioners Positive displacement chillers (screw-scroll-reciprocating) R-717 (ammonia) is used today in chillers, particularly in Europe. R-717 chillers with heat recovery features offer high efficiency Hydrocarbons are used today in chillers, particularly in Europe Carbon dioxide (R-744) has a relatively low energy efficiency for most chiller applications. In cool climates such as Northern Europe, R-744 chillers are accepted as viable alternatives to HFC chillers 14 July 2009 Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants 18

19. Decision XX/8: Mobile Air-conditioning • The EC Mobile Air Conditioning regulation (refrigerants with GWP <150 in new model cars as of 2011, and in all new cars in 2017) has been an important driver • Status 2008-09: two candidates are top of the list: carbon dioxide and HFC-1234yf, an unsaturated HFC (HFO) • Standpoint of the automotive industry in Europe has always been that they would be “going for” CO2; US industry is silent • US EPA now asks for Public Comments to SNAP approval of HFC-1234yf; this while more low-GWP HFCs are being developed (HFC-1234ze, HFC-1243zf…) • The necessary MAC choice is still unclear; if HFC-1234yf gets a substantial part of the MAC market it will have further impacts! Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

20. Decision XX/8 (6) • Which boundary conditions, or chances do exist (or do they not exist ?) for natural refrigerants compared to other low GWP synthetic fluorocarbon refrigerants in replacing fluorocarbon refrigerants, the HCFC/HFCs, throughout all subsectors ? • How and where can these chances be influenced ? Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

21. HFC Amendment proposed by Island States, N.-America To add HFCs with their GWPs in an Annex F to the Montreal Protocol To add GWPs to the HCFCs already covered under the Protocol To apply the concept of GWP-t, comparable to ODP-t, for the consideration of control schedules (on the basis of the usual country Article 7 reporting) and requiring reporting of HFC production and consumption To establish a baseline for controls consisting of HCFC + HFC consumption in a given year (2004-2006, 2005) Timelines are still optional Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

22. Amendment proposed Defines a phase-down schedule for the developed countries as of [2013] (years and percentages in brackets), with some remaining HFC consumption after [2033], in analogy with US law circulating Defines the same type of schedule for the developing countries with years and percentages less clear, with some remaining HFC consumption after [2043] Inserts an emissions clause (emissions limit) for HFC-23 from HCFC-22 production at a level of 0.1% of the HCFC-22 quantity produced Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

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25. Observations HCFC schedules are already fixed for phase-out In both developed and developing countries The proposed HFC amendment does allow (some) growth Dependent on the consumption of HFCs this phase-out schedule will allow for some further growth in HFC consumption until [2013] (developed), or [2017] (developing) As of these dates HFC consumption has to decrease Emissions control may-must or will play a more important role in future (are drivers such that it will be more successful ?) Can further HFC consumption decreases only be done by allowing alternatives to high GWP chemicals such as “natural refrigerants”, but also low GWP HFCs (in which sub-sectors) ? Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

26. Observations related to the HFC Amendment Will or can the developed countries make the change to avoid the high GWP HFC route if they are still massively introducing HFCs in retrofits and in new equipment ? HFC controls prohibit funding developing country conversions away from HFCs via CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) Will developing countries make principal steps when a lot of funding issues are not cleared (including funding conversions from HCFC to HFC), to non-HFC climate positive alternatives ? There are differences in opinion regarding the funding principles for developing countries between several developed country blocks Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

27. Questions developing countries How can the question of funding a conversion that would avoid HFCs be resolved if rules for HCFC funding (following conventional approaches) have still not been agreed in practice for HCFC Phase-out Plans in developing countries ? This implies a conversion to different approaches, equipment and products, with a better climate performance, but does this also imply that higher investments are allowed in future ? An important question is whether Article 5 countries will sign up to a regulation that would create a precedent for all other greenhouse gases (CO2), where they have agreed to not consider any binding regime and percentages (now) Progress only in close co-operation between Protocols, if at all Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

28. Concluding observation HFC Amendment How much time will Montreal Protocol Parties need for reaching whatever agreement on this Amendment ? In how far will the Copenhagen negotiations outcome (after the Montreal Protocol MOP-21 discussions in November) have an impact on the type of agreement that can be reached ? Does this give extra opportunities for the application of low GWP refrigerants, natural refrigerants ? Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants

29. Future outlook Decision XIX/6 gives an extra stimulus to the possible application of natural refrigerants - if they are available (addressing safety and health) and at acceptable costs The reports for Decision XX/7 on banks and emissions mention large amounts of funding required for climate mitigation; an extra opportunity for natural refrigerants ? Decision XX/8 mentions that natural refrigerants are used; can their use be expanded ? If the HFC Amendment would be accepted; what does it mean for natural refrigerants versus other “low-GWP” ? Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants 29

30. Final comment At this moment there are many things moving in the conversion away from HCFCs and possibly from HFCs Many of the elements currently considered internationally imply that significant changes can be expected in refrigeration and AC in the 2010-2020 decade A MAC sector decision may have large consequences Is this altogether a clear opportunity for increasing the share of the natural refrigerants in many sub-sectors globally ? Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants 30

31. Thank you ! Atmosphere 2009 – Natural Refrigerants