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Craig James Chief Economist, CommSec, July 2011

The Australian & Global Economy. ediscoveryconsulting.blogspot.com. Craig James Chief Economist, CommSec, July 2011. Important information.

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Craig James Chief Economist, CommSec, July 2011

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  1. The Australian & Global Economy ediscoveryconsulting.blogspot.com Craig James Chief Economist, CommSec, July 2011

  2. Important information This presentation has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. Before acting on the information in this seminar, you should consider its appropriateness to your circumstances and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814 (CommSec) is a wholly owned but non-guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 and a Participant of the ASX Group. Examples used in this presentation are for illustrative purposes only.

  3. The Big Picture • Global economy growing…Emerging nations lead the way…

  4. So What?Exchange rates, trade, sharemarket, interest rates Global economy

  5. Ascent of China

  6. China awakes • Land of 1.3 billion people industrialises…Major resource demands… www.thenewmans.id.au

  7. Australian focus is trade • Three-quarters of exports to Asia…But driven by China and India…

  8. China industrialises • China is our number 1 trading partner…Huge gains, potential to grow further…

  9. Demand for Aussie Raw Materials

  10. Commodity price perspectives • Commodity prices hit 100-year low in 2002….and then came China…Australia is a key winner

  11. Mining boom

  12. Not just mining So What?Interest rates, investment, economic policy

  13. Big Picture • Economy slides due to floods…but underlying position is soft…

  14. Conservative Consumers • Consumers remain cautious……and more inclined to save

  15. Housing • Building approvals flat……and house prices fall for four months

  16. Tight job market • Unemployment remains low……wages up, especially in the mining sector

  17. Interest rates • Cash rate still below average……but what matters are lending rates…

  18. Inflation • Headline inflation boosted by petrol, fruit & veg……but underlying rate held down by discounting

  19. Reserve Bank views • Underlying inflation contained……but RBA expects stronger growth ahead

  20. Aussie dollar • High Aussie dollar keeping inflation down……as well as keeping a cap on growth…

  21. Outlook & Issues • European debt • US economic recovery • China expansion • Carbon tax • Mining Tax • Structural change • ‘New conservatism’

  22. CommSec forecasts

  23. www.despair.com

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