Issues, the Economy and Character in Campaigns

1. Issues, the Economy and Character in Campaigns March 23, 2011

2. Announcements • No class next week; instead we will meet before the final exam (in May) for a review session. • Final exam scheduled 20 May

3. How predictable are elections? • Economic conditions • Government popularity • Past performance

4. Forecasting British Elections Belanger (2005) “A Political Economy Forecast for the 2005 British General Election” BJPIR 7: 191-198

5. The Forecast Actual result: Labour 35%

6. Another Forecast of the 2005 British Election Actual result: Labour 356 Seats; Conservatives 198 Seats; Liberal Democrats 52 seats Source: Whiteley (2005) “Forecasting Seats from Votes in British General Elections” BJPIR 7:165-173.

7. US Elections Abramowitz (2008) “Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for-Change Model” PS: Political Science & Politics 41(4): 691-695

8. The 2008 Election Actual result: Obama 53%

9. If elections are predictable why is opinion fluid...

10. British Voting intentions (2005-10) See www.ukpollingreport.co.uk

11. Enlightenment Theory • Campaigns “educate” voters • Campaigns activate “fundamentals” such as performance evaluations, group characteristics, party cues...

12. Example of Activation

13. For issues to matter in an election • Candidates/parties must differ • Prospective voters must perceive the differences • They must be correct about the difference

14. On the other hand... • There are incentives for candidates to obfuscate • Prospective voters are often ignorant of where candidates/parties stand • Individuals’ views on different issues may not point to the same preference

15. Issue Ownership • Parties build up reputations in particular policy areas • Parties come to “own” these issues • Try to make elections about the issues they “own” • “Old” vs. “New?” issues

16. Issue Space

17. Issue Voting in Britain

18. When are issues likely to be more/less important? • When parties are far apart • If parties/candidates successfully “cross-pressure” voters • When candidates talk about them • When media focus on them

19. The Economy • Retrospective or prospective? • Egocentric or sociotropic? • Is it affected by institutional clarity of responsibility? • Is a good economy as influential as a bad economy? • Does political knowledge affect the relationship?

20. When is the economy likely to be more/less important? • When parties are far apart • When responsibility is clear • When times are tough • When candidates talk about it • When media focus on it

21. Valence Issues • Issues that are uniformly liked or disliked as opposed to a position issue on which opinion is divided. • Valence issues are less demanding • Corruption, competence, honesty, integrity • Assessments about leadership performance

22. Character • Competence • Integrity • Leadership • Empathy

23. Brown’s Public Image YouGov: Thinking about Prime Minister Gordon Brown, which of the following qualities do you think he has? Sticks to what he believes in, Strong, Decisive, Good in a a crisis, Honest, In touch with the concerns of ordinary people, A natural leader, Charismatic, None of these, Don’t know

24. Character

25. Perception of Gore’s Honesty

26. Traits of Candidates

27. British Elections: Valence Politics Leadership evaluations Party identification Perceptions of competence Economy

28. Summing it Up: What matters? • The economy • The issues • Character