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Ralph E. Morris ENVIRON International Corporation November 19, 2013

Regional Modeling as a Predictor of Air Pollution and for Developing Effective Emission Control Strategies. Ralph E. Morris ENVIRON International Corporation November 19, 2013. MM5 27km (cross) 122R X 188C. CTM 27km (cross) 94R X 124C. MM5 9km (cross) 108R X 147C. CTM 9km (cross)

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Ralph E. Morris ENVIRON International Corporation November 19, 2013

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  1. Regional Modeling as a Predictor of Air Pollution and for Developing Effective Emission Control Strategies Ralph E. Morris ENVIRON International Corporation November 19, 2013

  2. MM5 27km (cross) 122R X 188C CTM 27km (cross) 94R X 124C MM5 9km (cross) 108R X 147C CTM 9km (cross) 48R X 66C Center (28.5N, 114OE) MM5 3km (cross) 87B X 114C CTM 1km (cross) 84B X 120C MM5 1km (cross) 106R X 142C Center (28.5N, 114.OE) ENVIRON Experience in Regional Modeling • Developed Comprehensive Air-quality Model w/ extensions (CAMx) • Largest Photochemical Grid Model (PGM) development/application technical group in the world (outside of USEPA) • Numerous applications in U.S. for PM2.5 and O3 planning • Selected by Alberta Environment to assess Oil Sands AQ impacts • Selected by Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department (HKEPD) to develop new AQ Modeling System for Asia • 27/9/3/1 km Domains 2

  3. Regional Photochemical Grid Models • Regional Emission Inventories for All Sources • Mobile (On-Road, Non-Road, Commercial Marine, Locomotive, Airplanes) • Point (Electrical Generating Units [EGUs], non-EGU Point) • Area (Consumer Products, Agricultural, Home Heating, etc.) • Biogenic/Natural (Plants, Lightning, Sea Salt, etc.) • Three-Dimensional Meteorological Conditions • From weather prediction model (WRF) • Photochemical Grid Models (PGMs) • Brings closure between emissions and measurements • Used to project changes in air quality in response to changes in emissions • Can be used to calculate source apportionment • What sources are causing the air pollution problem

  4. Example: December 2012 Liberty-Clairton (Pittsburgh) PM2.5 State Implementation Plan (SIP) • Treat local sources using hybrid plume model (Plume-in-Grid) and 0.8 km high resolution grid • PM2.5 Problem at Liberty due to regional transport plus large local source contributions • Set up regional CAMx PGM using 36 km, 12 km, 4 km and 0.8 km grid resolution • Emission control measures to identify sources responsible for PM2.5 problem and show attainment by 2014

  5. Hong Kong PM2.5 Source Apportionment Modeling • Identify geographic regions and source categories that contribute to high PM2.5 in Hong Kong] • Example for Tung Chung (near HK Airport) • Hong Kong Area, Mobile and Point about equally important (1.5-2.0 µg/m3) • HK contributions (~5.5 µg/m3) overwhelmed by Pearl River Delta and Mainland China (~23 µg/m3)

  6. USA Good Neighbor Policy for Air Pollution • 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAA) • Formed Northeastern States Ozone Transport Commission • Requirement for Upwind States to address significant contributions to nonattainment in a Downwind State • 1994-1998 Ozone Transport Assessment Group (OTAG) • EUSA – 1998 NOX SIP Call • EPA EUSA Transport Rules: 2005 CAIR & 2012 CSAPR • Address O3 and PM2.5 Transport • USEPA used CAMx Source Apportionment to determine which upwind states have a significant contribution to downwind nonattainment • ENVIRON hired to address role of ozone and PM2.5 transport in western U.S. (WestJumpAQMS)

  7. Source Contributions to Maximum 24-Hour PM2.5 Concentration in Denver, Colorado • Source Contributions • Area (AR: 42%); Mobile (MV: 33%) and Point (PT: 18%) • PM2.5 Species Contributions • Crustal (34%), Organic Aerosol (OA: 37%) and Elemental Carbon (EC: 16%)

  8. Use of Regional Photochemical Grid Models • Brings closure between measured air pollution and emissions – identify what emission sources are causing the problem • Identifies which sources contribute the most to air pollution so would have the biggest benefits when controlled • Can target implementation of control technology to achieve the greatest benefits as quick as possible • Source apportionment techniques can be used to obtain contributions down to the individual source • Large fall off in contributions with distance • Can identify source contributions by major source category • On-Road and Non-Road Mobile Sources • Marine Vessels • Electrical Generating Units (EGU) points • Non-EGU Industrial Point Sources • Home Heating and Cooking • Agricultural • Burning/Fires • Biogenic Sources • Dust (Fugitive and Natural) • Other Natural (Lightning/Sea Salt) • International Transport

  9. Use of Regional Photochemical Grid Models • Can calculate visibility from the PGM modeled PM concentrations • Visual range important public perception air pollution metric • Helps evaluate alternative control strategies • Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) • Calculate health impacts due to alternative scenarios (e.g., PM2.5) using PGM output • Also economic benefits of reducing air pollution

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