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NTTG Joint Committee Meeting Annual Public Stakeholder Meeting February 2, 2011 Boise, Idaho

NTTG Joint Committee Meeting Annual Public Stakeholder Meeting February 2, 2011 Boise, Idaho. “ To ensure efficient, effective, coordinated use and expansion of the members’ transmission systems in the Western Interconnection to best meet the needs of customers and stakeholders .”.

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NTTG Joint Committee Meeting Annual Public Stakeholder Meeting February 2, 2011 Boise, Idaho

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  1. NTTG Joint Committee Meeting Annual Public Stakeholder Meeting February 2, 2011 Boise, Idaho “To ensure efficient, effective, coordinated use and expansion of the members’ transmission systems in the Western Interconnection to best meet the needs of customers and stakeholders.”

  2. Agenda

  3. Agenda – Cont.

  4. NTTG and Regional Processes Annual Public Stakeholder Meeting Boise, ID February 2, 2011

  5. TEPPC & Regional Activities • 2010 Study Plan and Report • 2029 Study • 2019 Cases • 2020 Cases • 10 Year Regional Plan • WECC & RTEP Plan • SCG Foundation List • SCG/SPG Roles & Reliability Screening • 2011 Study Requests and Plan • Long Term Plan (2030) & Planning Tool 5

  6. 6

  7. 7

  8. 8

  9. 2019 Expansion Options 9

  10. 2019 Case Results • Robust transmission expansion that reduces the most congestion in multiple scenarios • Expansion projects reduced congestion in relative paths – Comparison & and charts at TAS site: http://www.wecc.biz/committees/BOD/TEPPC/TAS/SWG/Shared%20Documents/Forms/AllItems.aspx • DC modeling issues

  11. Starting Point Assumptions for TEPPC 2020 Study Cases

  12. State & Provincial Steer Committee (SPSC) Case Requests • 2020 PC0 –TEPPC Base Case • Uses Balancing Authority (BA) load forecasts • 2020 PC1 –SPSC Reference Case • Uses State-Adjusted load forecasts • 2020 PC2 –SPSC High Load Case • 2020 PC3 –SPSC High DSM Case • 2020 PC4 –SPSC Low Carbon Case

  13. Other Additional Cases

  14. SPSC Reference Case Results Annual Generation Utilization

  15. SCG Foundation List &Transmission Assumptions

  16. SPSC Reference Case Results Most Heavily Utilized Paths

  17. Sensitivity Studies WECC Staff Performed the Sensitivity Cases

  18. TAS 2020 Results • Scenario Base Case L&R differences are posted: • Production cost, congestion, dispatch, carbon, etc results • “Dashboard” Matrix of results introduced at 1-25 TAS meeting: • Expansion projects • Sensitivity studies • Cases w/o Foundation List removed from Dashboard • More Discussion of Metrics and synthesizing at 2-16 TAS meeting

  19. WECC 10 Year Plan What’s in the Plan

  20. Timeline

  21. Metrics&Ranking

  22. Analytical Process • Scenario Case economic performance results will be reviewed by TAS • Expansion Projects will be added individually and cases re-run to determine project performance: • Changes in Loading levels, production costs, congestion • Projects will be chosen by TAS from “Toolbox” of projects submitted as ESRs or from SPG Potential Projects list.

  23. Analysis & Screening • TAS Production Cost Simulation Analysis Review • Expansion Cases to solve congestion • Recommended Expansion • High Level Screening – Other Issues

  24. SPG/SCG Bottom’s Up SPG Coordination Differences in Planning Foundation List Least Common Denominator Potential List Reliability Screening PF ProCost SPG & SCG Role 24

  25. TEPPC 2011 Study Process

  26. ESR Requests 2011 2010 Study Program ESR’s: • 2011 Study requests can be for economic performance simulation model runs with changes to base case including: • Specific Generator additions or changes • Resource and load scenarios • Transmission Projects • Base Case will be 2020 Case • See the WECC site for requests from last year and new ones this year: • http://www.wecc.biz/committees/BOD/TEPPC/EconomicPlanningStudies/Pages/default.aspx • TAS will review, prioritize, cluster ESRs

  27. 2011 Study Plan Development • All requests received by January 31, 2011, will be combined into a single list and considered for inclusion in the Study Program. (6.6.3) • The Transmission Advisory Subcommittee (TAS) will consider all requests received and will suggest possible options to TEPPC for combining or consolidating requests. All requests and TAS suggestions will be posted on the WECC website. (6.6.4) • TEPPC will convene an open meeting (February 24-25, 2011) to discuss requests received. All requesting parties are invited to attend and participate. Additional meetings may be held if necessary. (6.6.4) • TEPPC will prioritize the study requests during the open meeting using the Protocol criteria (6.6.4), and will develop the Study Program based on the prioritized list. • The proposed Study Program will be posted on the WECC website by April 29, 2011. (6.6.5) • Requests for reconsideration of the Study Program are due to TEPPC by May 15, 2011. TEPPC will respond to requests for reconsideration by June 15, 2011, and will post the final Study Program at that time. (6.6.5)

  28. Technical Advisory Subcommittee (TAS) 2011 Calendar

  29. State & Provincial Steering Committee (SPSC) Requests • Updated 10 & 20 year data • Prolonged drought • High DSM and Distributed Gen • Alternative CA import (TRECs) • RPS levels • Alternative DSW Solar Development • Low carbon and plant retirements • Increased Grid Utilization (EDT, EIM) • Variable Generation Integration SPSC voting on priority 1-21-11

  30. Scenario Planning Steering Committee (SPSG) • Brave New World or Green Ascendant • The Clean Energy and Economic Prosperity Program – CEEPP • Shifting Sands or Riding the Waves • Muddling without long term vision continuing as is ducking the issues, band aids • The Lost Years or the Abyss • Long term tail spin • Energy Stockade or Energy Island USA • Energy self reliance and isolationism

  31. Production Cost model and Power Flow round trip Future cases prepared from existing system with addition file Consistency between PCC and TEPPC nomenclature, assumptions Participation in BCCS JGC Work Group Data Coordination 31

  32. NTTG Planning Processes Annual Public Stakeholder Meeting Boise, ID February 2, 2011

  33. Today’s Topics • Northern Tier Transmission Group • Economic Study Requests • 2010-11 Biennial Study Update • Opportunities For Stakeholder Input • National & Regional Activities

  34. Northern TierTransmission Group • Members • Deseret Power • Idaho Power • NorthWestern Energy • PacifiCorp • Portland General Electric • NTTG Planning Purpose • Provide a forum where all interested parties are encouraged to participate in the planning, coordination, and implementation of a robust transmission system that is capable of supporting an efficient west-wide electricity market while meeting WECC and NERC reliability standards.

  35. NTTG Planning Processes Economic Study Requests

  36. Economic Study Process • Annual Process • Jan-Mar - Stakeholders submit request • NTTG conducts 2 per Biennial Planning Cycle • One completed last year • Apr-Jun – Economic congestion study performed • Use WECC TEPPC base cases if appropriate • Use PROMOD or GridView simulation programs • Output: estimated congestion, frequency and costs • Jul-Sep – Present results to Stakeholders • Results inform the planning process

  37. Economic Study Performed in 2010 PC1A: Case as provided by TEPPC with minor adjustments BASE: Case PC1A with 1500 MW wind generation added at Townsend AMPS: Case BASE with Path 18 upgraded from 337 to 401 MW north to south COLS: Case BASE with Path 8 upgraded from 2200 to 2800 MW east to west MSTI: Case BASE with the Mountain States Transmission Intertie project added ~ Path 8 Upgrade (600 MW) 1500 Path 18 Upgrade (64 MW) MSTI Project (1500 MW)

  38. Annual Submittal Windows • WECC: December 1 through January 31 • NTTG: January 1 through March 31 • Transmission Providers: • NorthWestern Energy: January 1 through February 28 • Deseret Power: January 1 through March 31 • Idaho Power Company: January 1 through March 31 • PacifiCorp: January 1 through March 31 • Portland General: January 1 through March 31

  39. Economic Study Request Process Overview

  40. Economic Study Categorization Transmission Provider: • Categorizes as Local, Sub-Regional or Regional Request • Determined using POR/POD method, • Or is otherwise reasonably determined by the TP to be a local, sub-regional, or regional request from a geographical and electrical perspective • If categorized as Sub-Regional or Regional • Requesting party will be notified • Request is forwarded to NTTG • Submit list to NTTG Transmission Use Committee in early April

  41. Key Milestones & Timeline NTTG ESR window opens for sub-regional studies Jan 01, 2011 Jan 19, 2011 NTTG Webinar to review ESR submittal process Jan 31, 2011 NTTG Webinar to discuss Regional ESR submittals & assumptions Deadline for submitting NTTG regional requests to WECC Jan 31, 2011 NTTG ESR window closes Mar 31, 2011 TPs submit regional and sub-regional requests to NTTG Apr 4, 2011 NTTG Public webinar to cluster, prioritize & vote Apr 6, 2011 NTTG runs economic study(ies) Apr - Jun, 2011 NTTG Public webinars to review preliminary results May and Jun 2011 Jul or Aug, 2011 Review Economic Study Results at Public Stakeholder Meeting

  42. NTTG Planning Processes 2010-2011 Transmission Study Update

  43. Study Scenarios • 2020 network is based on WECC 2020 heavy summer case, with projects not on ‘Foundation List of Projects’ removed. • 2020 resources are those in the TEPPC 2020 PC0 case, meeting RPS standards, planning reserves.

  44. The Resource Scenarios

  45. Null Case Study Objective Null Case Study “ The objective of the null case study was to determine from a limited power flow reliability analysis if the existing transmission system is sufficient to accommodate 10 years of load growth without additional transmission upgrades or modifications”

  46. Null Case Assumptions • Started with the 2010 heavy summer base case • NTTG loads increased to the 2020 level • No additional generation was added • 2010 transmission topology • Existing generation allowed to increase to meet load increase • Did not exceed generator capability • NTTG generation increased • BPA (e.g. Coulee) increased

  47. Null Case Load Increase 2010 loads replaced by 2020 loads from WECC base case

  48. Null Case N-0 Results • N-0 Overloads • 24 overloads identified • 15 line overload • 9 auto transformer overload

  49. Null Case N-0 Overload Table

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