中国人口老龄化 : 政策发展与长期照护保险 Population Aging in China: Policy Priorities and LTC Insurance

1. 中国人口老龄化:政策发展与长期照护保险 Population Aging in China: Policy Priorities and LTC Insurance 杜鹏,中国人民大学老年学研究所 Du, Peng Institute of Gerontology, Renmin University of China

2. Outline • Population ageing • Policy priorities • Long term care insurance

3. I. Population ageing in China • The latest 2010 China National Population Census gives us a chance to review the ageing process and policies to meet the challenges of population ageing. • The census data proves population ageing in China has been more rapid than expected due to the baby boomers entering the old age and longer life expectancy, there are 178 million elderly population aged 60 and over( account for 13.26%) and 119 million aged 65 and over(8.87%).

4. Population Ageing in China

5. 2011 • By the end of 2011,185 million aged 60+,account for 13.7%; • 123 million aged 65+,9.1%.

6. Oldest countries in the world in 2011 65岁及以上人口比例 资料来源: Carl Haub, 2011 World Population Data Sheet.

7. Migration flow in China, 1995-2000

8. Migration • The current 220 million migrant workers contribute the labor force and services to the development of the eastern developed area, but also cause the soaring population ageing in the western rural areas. • Therefore, the top ranking ageing provinces or municipalities is Chongqing and Sichuan, instead of Shanghai and Beijing. • The new national ageing situation calls for new strategies and policies.

9. National strategy on population • Control the population size around 1.5 billion. • Keep the fertility level around 1.8 in next three decades. • Avoid too high or too low fertility level.

10. Projected increase of Aged population by 2050

11. Population aging in China,2000-2100 Millions Year

12. Population pyramid in 2009

13. Population pyramid, 1950-2050 1950 2000 2050 Age Age 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female Male Female Male Female Sources: World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (2005).

14. II. Policy priorities • Law, policy and administrative system. • Improvement of social safety net. • Long term care insurance and services. • Social support system for the older adults. • Promoting social participation of elders.

15. National Strategy Research • In the past three years, China has been conducting the national strategy on ageing research programs; • The key research programs include: Family planning policy and the support for the elderly, population migration and its impacts on the elderly, Aging and health, Economic status of the elderly,

16. Intergenerational relationship, • Aging and disability, • Aging and culture change, • Age discrimination and age abuse, • Community services for the elderly, • Social participation.

17. The priorities for review and appraisal include the following five key areas: • The laws and policies on protecting the rights and wellbeing of the elderly, • The social safety net and its adequacy to the elderly, • Long term care needs and insurance system, • The social service system, • Policies and implementation of active ageing and social participation system.

18. III. Long term care insurance • LTC insurance as the policy direction Improving population policy and the care Social support system Article in the Law on the elderly Increasing needs of the older persons Available data International experiences

19. Economic resources of the elderly, 2004 Other Children Pension Work Age

20. Long Term Care Older persons with ADL problems,%

21. Long Term Care Projection of long term care needs Number in 10,000 Female Male Year

22. Key challenges • Availability of data • Timing of the LTC insurance system • Governmental initiatives • LTC insurance and services • Administration of the LTC funds • Capacity building of care givers

23. Thank you Email:dupeng415@yahoo.com.cn