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MPR 2010:3 101025

MPR 2010:3 101025. Figure 1.01. World GDP Annual percentage change. Sources: IMF and the Riksbank. Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Figure 1.02. Development of GDP in different regions and countries Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally adjusted data.

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MPR 2010:3 101025

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  1. MPR 2010:3101025

  2. Figure 1.01. World GDPAnnual percentage change Sources: IMF and the Riksbank Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  3. Figure 1.02. Development of GDP in different regions and countriesQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally adjusted data Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  4. Figure 1.03. Consumer pricesAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Note: In Sweden's case this refers to CPIF inflation. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: National soruces and the Riksbank

  5. Figure 1.04. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  6. Figure 1.05. CPIF with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  7. Figure 1.06. Prog.1 Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast. Source: The Riksbank

  8. Figure 1.07. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  9. Figure 1.08. Monetary policy expectations in Sweden according to money market participantsPer cent Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast. Sources: Reuters EcoWin, TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank

  10. Figure 1.09. Monetary policy expectations in the euro area and the USAPer cent Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk premiums and describe the expected overnight rate, which is not always equivalent with the official policy rate. Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

  11. Figure 1.10. Unemployment in the USAPer cent Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  12. Figure 1.11. Unit labour costs and core inflation in the USAAnnual percentage change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note. Core inflation measured as the CPI excluding energy and food.

  13. Figure 1.12. General government financial balancePer cent of GDP Sources: IMF and Statistics Sweden

  14. Figure 1.13. Comparison of recovery in Sweden, the euro area and USAGDP level, index 2007 quarter 4 = 100 Note. The quarter prior to the recession breaking out in the USA = 100. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, SCB and the Riksbank

  15. Figure 1.14. HICP in the euro areaAnnual percentage change Source: Eurostat

  16. Figure 1.15. GDPAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  17. Figure 1.16. GDP by expenditureQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data Source: Statistics Sweden

  18. Figure 1.17. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18.11.92 = 100 Source: The Riksbank Note. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  19. Figure 1.18. Policy ratesPer cent, quarterly changes Sources: National sources and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  20. Figure 1.19. Swedish exports and the world market for Swedish exports Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The points refer to the Riksbank's forecast for the whole year.

  21. Figure 1.20. Investment ratioPer cent of GDP, current prices Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Four-quarter moving average. Points represent the Riksbank's forecast for the whole year.

  22. Figure 1.21. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  23. Figure 1.22. Confidence indicators for householdsNet figures Source: National Institute of Economic Research

  24. Figure 1.23. Number of hours workedMillions, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  25. Figure 1.24. Labour force and number of employedThousands, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  26. Figure 1.25. UnemploymentPercentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data Note. Pre-1987 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 years. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  27. Figure 1.26. Proportion of companies reporting a shortage of labourPer cent, seasonally adjusted data Source: National Insitute of Economic Research

  28. Figure 1.27. GDP-gap and RU indicatorPercentage deviation from potential level Note. GDP gap (HP) refers to the deviation from the trend in GDP calculated with a Hodrick Prescott filter. The GDP gap (PF) refers to the deviation from the trend in GDP calculated with a production function. The RU-indicator is normalized so that the mean value is zero and the standard deviation is 1. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  29. Figure 1.28. Hours gapPercentage deviation from potential level Note. The hours gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in the number of hours worked calculated with a Hodrick Prescott filter. The hours gap refers to the deviation in the number of hours worked from the Riksbank's assumed trend for the number of hours worked. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  30. Figure 1.29. Employment and labour force participation ratesEmployment and labour force as a percentage of the population, 16-64 year, seasonally-adjusted data Note. Pre-1987 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  31. Figure 1.30. Unit labour costs for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, fixed prices and per cent of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  32. Figure 1.31. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. CPIF is CPI with a fixed mortgage interest rate. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  33. Figure 1.32. HICP in the euro area and in SwedenAnnual percentage change Note. HICP is the Harmonised Index for Consumer Prices and is used to compare inflation rates in Europe. It's composition is similar to the CPIF. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Sources: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  34. Figure 1.33. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  35. Figure 1.34. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Note. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Source: The Riksbank

  36. Figure 2.01. GDP abroadTCW-weighted, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms Sources: National sources and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  37. Figure 2.02. CPI abroadTCW-weighted, annual percentage change Sources: National sources and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  38. Figure 2.03. Interest rate abroadTCW-weighted, per cent, quarterly averages Sources: National sources and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  39. Figure 2.04. CPIFAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  40. Figure 2.05. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  41. Figure 2.06. Hours gapPercentage deviation from potential level Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  42. Figure 2.07. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast. Anm. Streckad linje avser Riksbankens prognos.

  43. Figure 2.08. Hours gapPercentage deviation from potential level Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  44. Figure 2.09. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  45. Figure 2.10. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  46. Figure 2.11. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  47. Figure 2.12. Repo rate assumptionsPer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  48. Figure 2.13. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  49. Figure 2.14. Hours gapPercentage deviation from potential level Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  50. Figure 2.15. UnemploymentPercent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

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