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M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F. Boersma , H. Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

Exploring the Sensitivity of the OMI‐NO 2 Product to emission Changes Across Europe using a Chemistry Transport Model. M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F. Boersma , H. Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans. Introduction.

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M. Schaap , L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F. Boersma , H. Eskes , A. Segers, R. Timmermans

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  1. Exploring the Sensitivity of the OMI‐NO2 Product to emission Changes Across Europe using a Chemistry Transport Model M. Schaap, L. Curier, R. Kranenburg, F. Boersma, H. Eskes, A. Segers, R. Timmermans

  2. M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Introduction • In Europe, official emissions are reported are reported to EEA and UNECE/EMEP. • Although many countries report high quality data, a number of caveats exist: • the inventory methodologies vary from nation to nation • data gaps exist • not real-time • discrepancies between eastern and western Europe Officially reported emissions (Gg) for year: 2000 PM10 NoxGermany + 45% Reported in Reported in

  3. M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Goals • To contribute to the verification and improvement of the European emission inventory by synergistic use of satellite data and a chemistry transport model. • To inform you on activities performed at TNO with OMI-NO2 data

  4. M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS • Labelling module that tracks source contributions for all N-containing compounds • See Kranenburg et al., 2013 • Lower troposphere up to 3.5 Km • CBM-IV chemistry • Explicit N2O5 hydrolysis • ISORROPIA-II equilibrium mod. • NO2 columns calculated using OMI averaging kernels • EnKF data assimilation • Participated in most model comparisons (GLOREAM, EURODELTA, AQMEII) • Member of MACC ensemble

  5. M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Emissions Labels • Label definition: • 6 source sectors • 5 hours of the day between 9 and 14 • Boundary conditions • 2005: MACC-2005 database • 2020: MACC-2005 scaled by GAINS 2020 totals per sector • Temporal profiles per sector

  6. M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Annual mean modelled and retrieved NO2 distribution Systematic bias of 1.1015molec/cm2 Spatial correlation R2 = 0.91 Model OMI

  7. Netherlands Eastern Europe Western Europe Iberian Peninsula M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot 2007 Comparison over Europe

  8. M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Sector contributions to NO2 columns at OMI overpass Power generation

  9. M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Sector contributions NO2 columns at OMI overpass Off Road transport

  10. M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Sector contributions to NO2 columns at OMI overpass Road transport

  11. Seasonal component M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Approach: • LOTOS-EUROS simulation with constant 2005 emissions • Match to OMI columns using averaging kernel • Trend estimate in the bias between OMI and LOTOS-EUROS Annual trends [Weatherhead et al 1998]

  12. M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Satellite derived trends in OMI-NO2 v1 • NO2 trends show decreasing values of 3-6 % a year between 2005 and 2010. • Data often used as a first order estimate of the NOx emission trend • Comparison to 2011 reporting for 2009

  13. M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Impact of emission scenario on NO2 columns Emissions NO2 Columns

  14. M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Large countries Coastal countries Island states Sea areas

  15. M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Extension to 2012 using OMI-v2 and full data assimilation Trend analysis on v1 Parameter estimate using v2 • Assimilation indicated a very slow decline until 2012, if any! • Reason: V2.0 contains much smaller trends! % change over 5 years

  16. M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Comparison v1 and v2 for 2005-2010

  17. All data Meteo corrected M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot

  18. M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Change of Annual emissions and levels normalized to 2005

  19. M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot NO2 evaluation for 1990-2009 Impact of direct NO2 percentage diesel cars from 3 to 20% %

  20. M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Conclusions We have developed a source apportionment tool to investigate emission sector contributions to satellite products. Source sector contributions show distinctly different spatial patterns. For land locked and large countries OMI-NO2 trends can be translated into emission changes. Both in-situ and remote sensed NO2 levels show lower downward trends than reported emissions. Improvements possible through update temporal variability of emissions, natural emissions, extension of vertical extend LE. This study highlights the need for a combined use of models, a-priori emission estimates and satellite data to verify emission trends.

  21. 21 Monday, April 11, 2011 R. Lyana Curier M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Thank you for you attention Reference: Schaap et al., Remote Sens., 5(9), 4187-4208; Curier et al., 2014 Acknowledgement: We acknowledge the support of ESA project GlobEmission and the EC-FP7 ENERGEO project

  22. M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Comparison to AIRBASE ground level NO2

  23. M. Schaap Fossil Fuel pilot Contribution of the emissions between 09-14 to NO2 columns at OMI overpass

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