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Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration

International Energy Outlook: The Future of Energy. Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration. Georgetown University March 17, 2008. EIA Products. Data Collection

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Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration

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  1. International Energy Outlook: The Future of Energy Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration Georgetown University March 17, 2008 1

  2. EIA Products • Data Collection • EIA has about 80 surveys and data forms related to energy supplies and production, energy consumption, greenhouse gases, and finance • Analysis • EIA provides analyses that evaluate the impacts of regulation on energy markets • Forecasting • EIA provides short-term and long-term forecasts of energy markets for the United States and the world 2

  3. Natural gas prices fell sharply when EIA released gas storage data at 10:30 AM on Thursday, June 29, 2006 EIA Impacts Energy Markets: Natural Gas Markets Rely Heavily on EIA Weekly Data EIA’s release of its Natural Gas Storage Data has immediate impact on the natural gas market NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas Near-Month Futures Contract June 28 - 29, 2006; Bloomberg data 7/24/06. 3

  4. Major Trends in the IEO2007 … • Total world energy use rises by 57 percent in the reference case projection. • The high world oil prices in the IEO2007 reference case are projected to make previously uneconomical, unconventional resources economical, and they provide 10.5 million barrels per day of the world supply by 2030. • Coal is the fastest growing energy source worldwide, increasing on average by 2.2 percent per year. Natural gas and renewables each increase by an average of 1.9 percent per year. Liquid fuels grow by 1.4 percent per year. • The Middle East accounts for substantial shares of the world’s total increase for liquids, 45 percent of the world total, and natural gas, 22 percent, through 2030. • Non-OECD Asia energy use, especially in China and India, is expected to more than double between 2004 and 2030 and will rely increasingly on the Middle East to fulfill its oil and natural gas needs. • Higher fossil fuel prices, energy security concerns, improved reactor designs, and environmental considerations are expected to improve the prospects for nuclear power generation, which is 14 percent higher in 2030 than in the previous outlook. • Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 26.9 billion metric tons in 2004 to 33.9 billion metric tons in 2015 and 42.9 billion metric tons in 2030. 4

  5. World Oil Price, 1980-2030 (2005 dollars per barrel) $100 History Projections High Price Reference $59 Low Price $36 5 International Energy Outlook 2007

  6. World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1980-2030(quadrillion Btu) History Projections 34% Liquids 28% 38% 24% Coal 26% Share of World Total Natural Gas 23% Renewables 8% 7% 6% Nuclear 6% 6 International Energy Outlook 2007

  7. World Marketed Energy Consumption(quadrillion Btu) History Projections 404 Non-OECD 298 240 OECD 207 7 International Energy Outlook 2007

  8. Average Annual GDP and Population Growthfor Selected Regions, 2004-2030 (percent) 8 International Energy Outlook 2007

  9. World Liquids Consumption, 2004 and 2030(million barrels per day) 9 International Energy Outlook 2007

  10. World Liquids Production, 2004-2030(million barrels per day oil equivalent) 118 Total Non-OPEC (Conventional) 54 53 OPEC (Conventional) Unconventional 10 10 International Energy Outlook 2007

  11. Non-OPEC Producing Regions with More than a One-Million-Barrel-per-Day Increase in Production, (million barrels per day oil equivalent) 11 International Energy Outlook 2007

  12. OPEC Conventional Liquids Production(million barrels per day) 12 International Energy Outlook 2007

  13. World Unconventional Liquids Production, 1980-2030(million barrels per day oil equivalent) History Projections Other includes shale oils and other unidentified sources of unconventional liquid fuels. 13 International Energy Outlook 2007

  14. World Proved Oil Reserves, as of January 1, 2008(billion barrels) World Total = 1,332 billion barrels 14 Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 24, 2007)

  15. World Natural Gas Consumption, 2004-2030(trillion cubic feet) 15 International Energy Outlook 2007

  16. World Natural Gas Production, 2004-2030(trillion cubic feet) 16 International Energy Outlook 2007

  17. World Natural Gas Reserves, as of January 1, 2008, andCumulative Consumption, 2004-2030 (trillion cubic feet) Reserves Cumulative Consumption, 2004-2030 World Natural Gas Reserves = 6,186 Trillion Cubic Feet World Cumulative Consumption, 2004-2030 = 3,759 Trillion Cubic Feet 17 International Energy Outlook 2007 andOil & Gas Journal, Vol. 105, No. 48 (December 24, 2007)

  18. World Coal Consumption, 2004-2030(quadrillion Btu) 18 International Energy Outlook 2007

  19. World Electric Power Generation, 1980-2030 (trillion kilowatthours) History Projections Non-OECD OECD 19 International Energy Outlook 2007

  20. World Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2004-2030(trillion kilowattours) 20 International Energy Outlook 2007

  21. World Renewable Energy Use, 2004-2030(quadrillion Btu) 21 International Energy Outlook 2007

  22. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region(billion metric tons) 22 International Energy Outlook 2007

  23. World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1990-2030 (billion metric tons) History Projections Total 43% Coal 40% 36% Liquids 39% 21% Natural Gas 20% 23 International Energy Outlook 2007

  24. Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2008, March 2008 International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007, next issue May 2008 Examples of Special Analyses “Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, March 2004 The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, Dec 2003 “Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” Annual Energy Outlook 2005 www.eia.doe.gov Guy Caruso guy.caruso@eia.doe.gov 24

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