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Presentation to NCRES

Presentation to NCRES. The Utility Scale Wind Industry and the Department of Energy’s Wind Vision 10% 2020, 20% by 2030, 35% by 2050 Evelyn Carpenter Solas Energy Consulting US Inc. June 16, 2015. Solas Overview. American Wind Energy Association. Windpower market update.

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Presentation to NCRES

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  1. Presentation to NCRES The Utility Scale Wind Industry and the Department of Energy’s Wind Vision 10% 2020, 20% by 2030, 35% by 2050 Evelyn Carpenter Solas Energy Consulting US Inc. June 16, 2015

  2. Solas Overview

  3. American Wind Energy Association Windpower market update

  4. MapofWindPower CapacityOnline 16 stateshavemorethan 1,000MWof installedwind Total of 65,877 MW of wind capacity were operational at the end of 2014, with nearly 48,000 utility scale wind turbines online. Wind Energy provided 4.4% of the nation’s electricity during 2014, while all forms of renewable energy provided 13% of the nation’s electricity.

  5. U.S.AnnualandCumulativeWindPowerCapacityGrowth • The U.S.wind industry nowhas 66,008MWof installedcapacity andover48,000 operating wind turbines.

  6. Mapof OnlineandUnderConstructionProjects • 23 stateshaveprojectscurrentlyunderconstruction • New announcementsmade inKansas, Maine, Maryland,Oklahoma, andTexas in the firstquarter

  7. Figure4 U.S.AnnualPowerCapacity Additions2011to2014,byRegion Other Nonrenewable Oil Geothermal Water Biomass Solar Coal Wind GasInternalCombustion/Turbine GasCombinedCycle Percentdenotesthemarketshare ofwind 18,000 forallcapacityinstalled2011-2014 15,000 PowerCapacityAdditions,2011-2014 12,000 8% 0% 9,000 Regions 18% New 40% Northwest 6,000 New York Midwest 62% MountainWest Mid-Atlantic 26% 3,000 California Southeast 64% Texas 25% 22% 35% 0 Hawaii&Alaska California Hawaii &Alaska Mid-Atlantic Midwest Mountain West New England NewYorkNorthwest PlainsSoutheast Texas DataSources:AWEA,EIA,SEIA,SNL

  8. GlobalWindPowerCapacityGrowth Figure10 GlobalWindPowerCapacity InstallationsoverTime,TopCountries 400,000 350,000 • RestofWorld WindPowerCapacity(MW) 300,000 India Spain Germany U.S. China 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source:AWEA,GWEC ...WindPower GrowthAround the World 39,000MWofwindcapacityinstalled,representing 25% ofthatnation’stotalpowercapacity.Bycomparison,theU.S.’s65,877MWofwindcapacity represents 6.2% ofits1,070,472MWoftotalpowercapacity.Forperspective,Germany’stotalpowercapacityisequivalenttothestateofTexas andGeorgiacombined,orroughly155,000MW (one-seventhofU.S.powercapacity). growth.TotalwindcapacityinChinawas 114,763 MWattheendof2014,whichwas morethan doublethewindcapacityofanyothercountry exceptfortheU.S.Chinaisthefirstcountrytosurpass 100,000MWofinstalledwindcapacity. Chinainstalledmorewindpowerin2014than SpainandIndia,whichrankfourthandfifthintheworldforcumulativeinstallations,havedeployedintotal. �TheUK roseintheranksofnewwindcapacity, with1,736MWinstalledduring2014,representing morethan15% growthandremainingthesecond strongestmarketinEuropefornewcapacity. �ChinaandIndialedthecontinentof Asia,with23,351MWofnewwindcapacityaddedinChina for25.5% annualcapacitygrowth,and2,315MWofnewcapacityinstalledinIndiafor11.4%annual 22 AmericanWindEnergyAssociation IU.S. WindIndustryAnnualMarketReportYearEnding2014

  9. Economics, Manufacturing Regional and state impacts

  10. U.S.WindPowerActivity,byState&Region �Thegrowthrateinwindgenerationwas most significantinNebraska,whichrankedsecondinthe nationforwindcapacityadditionsduring2013.That statehada51.9%increaseinwindgenerationin 2014. Threeotherstatesincreasedtheirgeneration bymorethan20%,withMichiganwindenergy generationgrowing38.4%in2014,Vermontwindenergygenerationgrowing 29.5%,andUtahwindenergygenerationgrowing23.2%. Source:EIA ...PowerMix:TopStateswithWindEnergyGeneration �ThewindgeneratedinTexas during2014couldpowerover3.6millionaverageU.S.households, whilethewindgenerationinIowa,Californiaand Oklahomacouldeachpowerover1millionaverage U.S.households.Combined,thetop10statesforwindgenerationcouldpower12.2millionaverage U.S.households. �Windgenerationnumbersfor2014showincrementalbutconsistentgrowthovertimeforanumberofstatesasthe smallnumberofprojects that cameonlineduring2013generatedelectricity forafull year. 28 AmericanWindEnergyAssociation IU.S. WindIndustryAnnualMarketReportYearEnding2014

  11. Regional&StateImpactsofU.S.WindIndustryActivity Figure67 CumulativeInvestmentinWindEnergyProjects,byState AK $130million WA $5.8billion VT $250million MT $1.2billion ND $3.7billion ME $910million NH$360million MN $5.7 billion OR $6.2billion ID $1.9billion WI $1.3 billion SD $1.6billion NY $3.4billion MA$220million RI $20million MI $2.9 billion WY $2.6billion CT PA $2.7billion IA $10.0billion NV $280million NE $1.5billion NJ$10million DE$4million MD $330million OH $775million WV $1.2 billion IL $7.2 billion IN $3.7 billion UT $700million CO $4.8billion CA $11.7billion KS $5.5billion VA MO $960million KY NC TN $33million AZ $490million OK $7.0billion NM $1.4billion AR SC • <$100million • $100millionto<$500million • $500millionto<$1billion • $1billionto<$5billion • $5billionto<$10billion • >$10billion GA AL MS TX $26.3billion LA HI $410million FL PR $100million– <$500million 80 AmericanWindEnergyAssociation IU.S. WindIndustryAnnualMarketReportYearEnding2014

  12. Regional&StateImpactsofU.S.WindIndustryActivity Figure68 EstimatedAnnualLeasePaymentstoLandownersbyWindProjects AK $100k–500k WA $5–10million VTME $100k–500k$1–5 million MT $1–5million ND $5–10million MN $5–10 million OR $5–10million NH$500k–1million MA$100k–500k RI <$100k CT<$100k NJ<$100k DE<$100k MD$100k–500k ID $1–5million WI $1–5million SD $1–5million NY $1–5million MI $1–5 million WY $1–5million PA $1–5million IA >$10million NE $1–5million IL >$10 million NV $100k–500k OH $1–5 million IN $5–10 million UT $500k–1million WV CO $5–10million CA >$10million $1–5 KS $5–10million million VA MO $1–5million KY NC TN <$100k AZ $500k–1million OK >$10million NM $1–5million AR SC • <$100k • $100k–$500k • $500k–$1million • $1million–$5million • $5million–$10million • >$10million GA AL MS TX >$10million LA HI $500k–1million FL PR $100k–500k 81 AmericanWindEnergyAssociation IU.S. WindIndustryAnnualMarketReportYearEnding2014

  13. U.S.WindEnergyIndustryEmployment U.S.Wind EnergyIndustryEmployment Figure 72 U.S.WindEnergyIndustry TotalEmploymentoverTime As of theend of2014, theU.S.windenergyindustrysupported73,000full-timeequivalent (FTE)*jobsdirectlyassociatedwithwind energy project planning,siting,development, construction,manufacturingandsupplychain, andoperations. EmploymentintheU.S.WindEnergyIndustry(FTEs) 100,000 80,000 60,000 Employmentin theU.S.windenergyindustryreboundedin2014asstrongunderconstructionactivityandnewturbineordersspurringmanufacturingcontinuedtobolster employment numbers. 40,000 20,000 Texas, thelargest statein thenationfor cumulativeinstalledwindcapacity,capacityinstalledin2014andunderconstruction activityled thenationinwindjobswithover 17,000employedin thewindindustry.Texas wasfollowedbyIowa,Colorado, Oklahoma, Michigan,Illinois,North Dakota,Washington, California,andIndiana. 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 Manufacturing & SupplyChain Construction,Development,Transportation Construction Operations:WindTechnicians Operations: Other Other Jobs 2011 2012 2013 2014 84 AmericanWindEnergyAssociation IU.S. WindIndustryAnnualMarketReportYearEnding2014

  14. U.S.WindEnergyIndustryEmployment Figure73 U.S.WindEnergyIndustry EmploymentbyState,YearEnd 2014 AK WA VT MT ME ND MN OR NH MA ID WI NY SD CT MI RI WY PA IA NJ DE MD NE NV OH IL IN UT CA WV CO VA KS MO KY NC TN OK AZ SC NM AR GA AL MS 1to100 101to500 501to1,000 1,001to2,000 2,001to3,000 3,001to4,000 4,001to5,000 6,001to7,000 17,001to18,000 TX LA HI FL 86 AmericanWindEnergyAssociation IU.S. WindIndustryAnnualMarketReportYearEnding2014

  15. U.S.WindRelatedManufacturingFacilities U.S.WindRelatedManufacturing Figure61 During2014,over 500wind-related manufacturingfacilitiesacross43statesproduced productsfor theU.S.wind energyindustry. TheU.S.windenergysupplychaincontains10utility-scalebladefacilities,ninetowerfacilities,andsixturbinenacelleassembly facilities,allspreadacross14states. Turbinemanufacturersformorethan98% of the wind powercapacityinstalledin theU.S.during 2014haveatleastoneoperational domestic manufacturingfacility. AnnualU.S. productioncapabilityforwindturbinenacelles stands atapproximately9GW. WindTurbine&Component Manufacturingin theU.S. �ThecurrentU.S.windindustrysupplychainiscapableofproducingthe vastmajorityofthemorethan8,000componentsrequiredforturbineassembly. �U.S.-basedfactoriesmakeeverythingfrommajor componentssuch asblades,towers,rotorhubs �During2014,over500wind-relatedmanufacturing facilitiesproducedaproductforthewindindustry. �Thegeographicdiversityofthewind-relatedmanufacturingfootprint is vast,withfacilities spreadacross 43states. 72 AmericanWindEnergyAssociation IU.S. WindIndustryAnnualMarketReportYearEnding2014

  16. MarketShareofU.S.WindTurbineManufacturers MarketShareofAnnualInstalledCapacity MarketShare& MajorPlayersinWindTurbineManufacturing(2014Projects) �ThenumberofOEMsinstallingturbinesintheU.S.marketremainslowafteradramaticdropduring2013,whenthenumberofindustryplayersdroppedfrom26during2012toonlyseven.ThenumberofactiveOEMsremainedthesameduring2014,withtwoofthesevenOEMsinstallingonlyoneturbine. �Approximately48,000windturbinesmakeup theU.S.windturbinefleetof65,877MW.Atleast 50windturbinemanufacturersarerepresented inthisfleet,alongwithanumberofturbineremanufacturers. �GEEnergycaptures42% marketshareofthecumulativewindturbinefleet,bycapacity,followed byVestaswith18% marketshare,andSiemenswith15% marketshare. 63 AmericanWindEnergyAssociation IU.S. WindIndustryAnnualMarketReportYearEnding2014

  17. Market Participants Investment

  18. Owners&DevelopersofU.S.WindPowerCapacity MarketShareofU.S.WindPowerCapacity,byOwner Figure25 MarketShareofU.S.WindPowerCapacity overTime,byOwner 70,000 Together, thetop5wind project assetowners: NextEraEnergyResources, IberdrolaRenewablesBerkshireHathawayEnergy(includingMidAmericanEnergy,PacifiCorpandBHERenewables),EDPRenewablesNorthAmerica,andInvenergyown41%of theinstalledwind powercapacityin theU.S. 60,000 WindProjectCapacity(MW) 50,000 40,000 Thetop25wind project assetownersownmorethan75% of theinstalledwind powercapacityin theU.S. 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2010 2011 NextEraEnergyResources IberdrolaRenewables Berkshire HathawayEnergy EDPRenewables North AmericaLLC Invenergy NRG E.ON Climate & Renewables EDFRenewableEnergy DukeEnergy BPWind Other 2012 2013 2014 36 AmericanWindEnergyAssociation IU.S. WindIndustryAnnualMarketReportYearEnding2014

  19. ElectricUtilitiesandWindPower Figure34 2013windpowerprovided61%oftheelectricity generatedonitsColoradosystem. �Thetop10electricutilitiesforwindpowercapacity ontheirsystemincludeseveninvestor-ownedutilities,twopubliclyownedutilitiesandonefederalpoweragency.Collectively,theseutilitiesownorpurchaseover24,600MWofwindpowercapacity, representingover366oftheU.S.windpowerfleet. �Inthecomingyears,therewillbenewentrantsintothelistoftopelectricutilitiesgiventhesignificant numberofPPAsandnear-termwindgrowthexpectedfromseveraladditionalutilities,includingruralelectric cooperatives. �XcelEnergycontinuestorankNo.1forwindpoweronautility system;itachievesthisrankingwith atotalof5,736MWunderdirectownershiporundercontract.BerkshireHathawayEnergyranksintheNo.2spotwith4,992MWofwindcapacity, followedbySouthernCaliforniaEdison,American ElectricPower,andPacificGas&Electric,whoroundoutthetop5. �XcelEnergyisthefirstutilityintheU.S.toexceed 5,000MW.Onlyninecountriesintheworld,in additiontothestatesofTexas,IowaandCalifornia, havemorethan5,000MWofwindcapacity.Windenergyrepresents15% ofthepowersupplyontheXcelEnergysystem,andatonepointduringMay �BerkshireHathawayEnergy(includingMidAmericanEnergy,PacifiCorp,andNVEnergy)continuestolead theU.S.inutilityownershipofwindpowercapacity with3,862MWunderdirectownership.Ofthe 3,862MWofwindpowercapacityownedbyBerkshireHathawayEnergy,over73%islocatedinthestateofIowa. �Forwindpowerownershipbyutilities,Berkshire HathawayEnergy(includingMidAmericanEnergy andPacifiCorp)isfollowedbyPugetSoundEnergy, PortlandGeneralElectric,MinnesotaPowerandAlliantEnergy,whichtogetherown2,480MWofwindpowercapacity. 45

  20. MapofWindPower Purchase AgreementActivity • 750 MW ofPPAs announcedin the firstquarter,buildingontheroughly11,300MW of power purchaseagreementssigned during2013‐2014. Morethan50%of the750MWcontracted inthe firstquarterwerebynon‐utilitypurchasers •

  21. Department of Energy’s Wind vision for the u.s. 2015

  22. The Wind Vision Report • The US DOE’s comprehensive analysis of future pathways for the wind industry. • Results reflect a broad-based, collaborative effort involving over 250 experts from industry, electric power operators, state & federal agencies, research institutions & laboratories, stakeholder groups & NGOs. • The findings analyze feasibility, costs, and benefits of increased wind power deployment to inform policy decisions at the federal, state, tribal and local levels.

  23. Overview: DOE’s Wind Vision Report In March 2015, the US Department of Energy released its definitive Wind Vision report update. • Shows that wind can become one of America’s largest sources of electricity & save consumers money • Sets aggressive targets for growth –and industry stands ready to meet those targets • With stable policy, wind can unleash even greater benefits

  24. Major Finding: Wind energy can supply 10% of US electricity by 2020, 20% by 2030 and 35% by 2050. In 2050 the projected installed capacity is 404 GW with 318 GW on land and 86 GW offshore.

  25. Wind Vision Analysis Overview • Wind Vision analysis models three core scenarios in order to better understand the sensitivities in deployment to various external drivers and to understand the likely economic and environmental effects of those drivers on the scenarios. • Baseline Scenario • Business as Usual Scenario • Study Scenario

  26. The Wind Vision Report: Study Scenario • The resulting Study Scenario – 10% by 2020, 20% by 2030, and 35% by 2050 wind energy as a share of national end-use electricity demand – is compared against the baseline scenario to estimate costs, benefits, and other impacts associated with potential future wind deployment.

  27. The Wind Vision Report The Potential of 35% of the Country’s Electricity Coming from Wind Energy by 2050.

  28. Wind Energy’s Benefits To Date • 65 GW of wind – enough to power 45,500,000 homes according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration–across 39 states in 2014 • Attracted >$100 billion in private investment to the US since 2008 • Employs more than 73,000 people in the US • Manufacturing supply chain of more than 500 factories across 43 states • Cut US electric sector carbon emissions by >5% – in 2014 alone, eliminated 26 million cars’ worth of CO2

  29. Wind’s Pollution Reduction Benefits

  30. Wind’s Steadily Declining Costs to Date

  31. Wind Vision: Substantial New Benefits Can Be Realized • Community Economic Benefits: By reaching 35% of the nation’s electricity mix by 2050, wind energy would: • Create an additional 600,000 well-paying jobs; • Drive $650 million in annual lease payments to landowners; • Support nearly $1.8 billion in tax payments to communities;

  32. Wind Vision: Substantial New Benefits Can Be Realized • Consumer Savings:Expanding wind power in the US will mean: • Electricity prices would be 20 percent less sensitive to fluctuations in the price of fossil fuels; • Consumers would see $280 billion in economy-wide savings from reduced natural gas prices alone; and • This investment will cost consumers only pennies a month in the early years, with annual consumer savings reaching $14 billion in 2050 alone.

  33. Wind Vision: Substantial New Benefits Can Be Realized • Environmental Benefits: Through 2050, expanding wind energy in the US would: • Avoid $400 billion in climate damages; • Save $108 billion in public health costs; • Prevent 22,000 premature deaths; and • Displace 23% of total US power plant water consumption.

  34. Reducing Energy Sector Water Use & Shortages

  35. Achieving the Wind Vision: DOE Criteria • Improved weather forecasting & turbine layout; • Next-generation technology, standards & testing; • Robust US manufacturing base & supply chain; • Best practices for performance, reliability and safety; • Sufficient transmission lines to population centers; • Responsible siting practices, workable permitting policies and community engagement; and • Workforce development

  36. Priority of Advocates for Wind Energy: Stable Policy • Essential that Congress provide longest possible extension of the renewable energy Production Tax Credit & Investment Tax Credit • Every other energy source enjoys tax incentives – the PTC and ITC are critical for wind and other renewable energy • State implementation of EPA’s proposed Clean Power Plan also crucial, along with shoring up and maintaining key state policies

  37. Solar and the Wind Vision • High-Level Wind Vision Roadmap Actions Include • Increase Flexible Resource Supply: Collaborate with the electric power sector to promote increased flexibility from all resources including conventional generation, demand response, wind and solar generation, and storage.

  38. Spreading the Word: Wind Vision Ambassadors • A new program led by the Wind Energy Foundation and the American Wind Energy Association • Industry leaders & allies working to help key audiences – especially policy makers – understand Wind Vision and the benefits of expanding wind • Supports Ambassadors through training, speaking appearances, media coverage • Contact Charlie Martin: CMartin@windenergyfoundation.org

  39. What Else Can You Do? • Purchase renewables directly from your utility; • Urge policy makers to enact renewables-friendly policies; • Share your stories with WEF, AWEA and local pro-renewables organizations; and • Continue to develop cutting-edge technologies that help lower costs, create jobs & realize the promise of wind!

  40. Wind Vision: Driving a New Era of Affordable, Abundant and Reliable Power in the US Evelyn Carpenter 501-438-9463 ecarpenter@solasenergyconsulting.com

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