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This proposed scenario provides a comprehensive flood prediction system utilizing precipitation forecasts, surface run-off simulations, and data assimilation for accurate flood forecasting in developing countries. The system integrates global numerical weather model results, satellite data, and in-situ observations to validate the regional weather model and enhance flood forecasts. Tested in 29 river basins across Asia, the system is on track to become semi-operational for Japan's second-largest river. It includes a GIS-based decision support system and a data archiving and assimilation system for real-time monitoring and analysis. Data search is facilitated by ISO 191 metadata standards.
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A PROPOSED SCENARIO FLOOD PREDICTION
Flood forecast Precipitation short-term forecast (intensity and distribution) Simulation of Surface run-off model Land cover data DEM In-situ observation data validation Semi real-time downscaling Numerical weather model results (global) Satellite data (AMSR etc) Data assimilation system validation Numerical weather Model (regional) In-situ observation data
With minimum ground observation data Flood forecast Precipitation short-term forecast (intensity and distribution) Simulation of Surface run-off model Land cover data Applicable in developing countries DEM In-situ observation data validation Semi real-time downscaling Numerical weather model results (global) Satellite data (AMSR etc) Data assimilation system validation Numerical weather Model (regional) In-situ observation data
Flood forecast Precipitation short-term forecast (intensity and distribution) Simulation of Surface run-off model Land cover data DEM In-situ observation data validation Semi real-time downscaling 29 TEST River Basins Proposed by 18 Countries in Asia Numerical weather model results (global) Satellite data (AMSR etc) Data assimilation system validation Numerical weather Model (regional) In-situ observation data
Flood forecast Precipitation short-term forecast (intensity and distribution) Simulation of Surface run-off model Land cover data DEM In-situ observation data validation Semi real-time downscaling 29 TEST River Basins Proposed by 18 Countries in Asia Soon be semi-operational for the 2nd largest river in Japan. Numerical weather model results (global) Satellite data (AMSR etc) Data assimilation system validation Numerical weather Model (regional) In-situ observation data
Flood forecast GIS-based decision support system Data Archiver + Data Assimilation System (UT/JAXA, MPI and NCAR) Precipitation short-term forecast (intensity and distribution) Simulation of Surface run-off model Land cover data DEM In-situ observation data validation Semi real-time downscaling Numerical weather model results (global) Satellite data (AMSR etc) Data search based on ISO 191 metadata (WTF-CEOP) Data search based on ISO 191 metadata (WTF-CEOP) Data assimilation system validation Numerical weather Model (regional) In-situ observation data