1 / 17

Food Insecurity in Southern Africa: Regional Dynamics

Food Insecurity in Southern Africa: Regional Dynamics. Peter Draper Trade Research Fellow GSI Seminar, Pretoria 3 rd November, 2008. OVERVIEW. Forces shaping regional food insecurity: “old” conventional wisdoms in a fast-changing world What role for subsidies?.

galvin-hoffman
Télécharger la présentation

Food Insecurity in Southern Africa: Regional Dynamics

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Food Insecurity in Southern Africa: Regional Dynamics Peter Draper Trade Research Fellow GSI Seminar, Pretoria 3rd November, 2008

  2. OVERVIEW • Forces shaping regional food insecurity: “old” conventional wisdoms in a fast-changing world • What role for subsidies?

  3. Forces shaping regional food insecurity: “old” conventional wisdoms in a fast-changing world New reality “Old” picture

  4. 1. Forces shaping food insecurity: “old” conventional wisdoms • Global demand/supply mismatches • Supply side shocks and constraints • Technology and productivity • Socio-political dynamics • Multilateral trade regulations

  5. Global demand/supply mismatches: old picture Main culprit?

  6. Global demand/supply mismatches: old picture Australian drought

  7. Global demand/supply mismatch • 2006/7 saw substantial production declines and associated declines in inventories of major food crops • Diversion of production into ethanol undoubtedly exacerbated this • What will 2009/10 bring? • Increased plantings owing to 2007/8 price signals? • Reduced demand owing to financial crisis? • At least a reversal of upward speculative pressures? • How long will this last before structural dynamics resume?

  8. Supply side shocks and constraints • Shocks to the system have been severe in recent years • Oil price rises, which underpinned high input costs • The global financial crisis, which entails: • Reduced aid flows and availability of multilateral funds • Reduced commodity prices means lower availability of domestic revenues, even if well-managed • Albeit lower input prices • In Africa supply-side constraints are acknowledged as being severe: • Infrastructure • Institutions • Capital stock • These are likely to persist for a sustained period, owing to dynamics of underdevelopment and lack of financing

  9. Technology and productivity

  10. Technology and productivity • Decades of under-investment in agriculture to blame? • IMF/World Bank structural adjustment? • Manifestation of broader supply-side constraints? • What about developing country (African) attitudes to science-based production, eg GMOs? • Lack of a “green-revolution” in Africa

  11. Socio-political dynamics • Colonial legacies, especially: • land ownership • Concentration on cash-crop production • Combined with pre-colonial inheritances: • Communal land-ownership • Subsistence production • Land-tenure is a central political dynamic: • Subsistence versus commercial production • Inhibits urbanization and industrialization?

  12. Multilateral trade regulations • “Faustian bargain” with developed world, especially the EU: • Preferential access ensures “locking-in” effect • EU subsidies and tariff peaks combine to shut out other producers (especially Latin American) • Dismantling this system would: • Introduce competition from efficient, Cairns group exporters into EU markets • Put upward pressure on prices – a problem for food importers and food-aid dependent states • But begin the process of correcting price signals • Hence the politics of the Doha round are fraught

  13. 2. What role for subsidies? • Start with “African” political economy • Revenue-raising capacities severely constrained • Aid dependencies widespread • Weak institutions (governance agenda) • Subsidies mean managing potentially powerful political interests even assuming the money was available (which it isn’t) • Hence other policy measures are more important, but the subject for another day • And implementation remains the key • Nonetheless:

  14. What role for subsidies? • Supply – side investments: • Rural and cross-border roads • Irrigation • Research and development (GMOs?) • Extension services • Climate – proofing? • Water management • Urban infrastructure • Diversification (those preferences…) • Transforming land ownership (towards commercial agriculture) • Food prices (bread and circuses…)

  15. What role for subsidies? Developed countries… • Of greater importance is the multilateral agenda, specifically: • Disciplining price supports • Eliminating export subsidies • Disciplining food aid • Which has to be sensitively managed (no big bangs) if it is to be sustainable

  16. Some things seem eternal…

  17. Thank you draperp@mweb.co.za

More Related