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This scenario depicts the catastrophic events following seismic activities in Sunda Strait, including volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and a tsunami. The narrative details the destruction caused by these natural disasters, with thousands feared dead or missing, widespread infrastructure damage, and a looming health emergency for survivors. International aid and relief efforts are mobilized as the affected region struggles to recover, facing challenges such as displaced populations, food and water shortages, and inadequate medical resources. The story unfolds over several days, illustrating the impacts on the local population and the response efforts by both domestic and international entities.
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SEADMC 2009 Scenario Brief 02 & 07 December 2009 02-0010 / 07-0008 As of 29 Nov 09
Seismic Activities in Sunda Strait • October 15, 2009: Seismic tremors centered in Sunda Strait increased in intensity and frequency • October 23-November 12, 2009: Eruptive activity on Anak Krakatau resumes. • Most are minor • Some large enough to cause CVGHM* to raise Alert Level to Alert Level 3 • Alert Level lowered back to Alert Level 2 on 12 November Anak Krakatau Serang Jakarta * Center of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation
Indonesia Alert System • Alert Level 1 Aktif Normal • Monitoring does not indicate changes • No eruption in foreseeable future • Alert Level 2 Waspada • Increasing activity, visual changes around crater • Magmatic, tectonic disturbance, no eruption imminent • Alert Level 3 Siaga • Intensively increasing activity • If trend of unrest continues, eruption possible in two weeks • Alert Level 4 Awas • Initial eruption of ash and vapor • Main eruption possible within 24 hours
Increased Intensity • November 15, 2009: Activity increases rapidly • Alert Level raised to Alert Level 3 • November 17, 2009: • Alert Level raised to Alert Level 4
7.9 Earthquake and Eruption • November 19, 2009: • 7.9 earthquake strikes 13 km below surface just northeast of Anak Krakatau • Anak Krakatau explodes, northern caldera disappears • Ash plumes rise 10 km • Pyroclastic flows speed outward to western Java-Banten Province Map / Graphic
Earthquake-generated Tsunami • November 19, 2009: Earthquake-generated tsunami sweeps western Java and eastern Sumatra • Waves up to 15 meters high strike west coast of Java from Merak to Tamanjaya. • Northern coast of Banten Province hit by waves up to 10 meters high • Banten town is destroyed
Death and Destruction • Volcanic ash covers much of Banten Province, including Serang • “Tens of thousands” are feared dead or missing • Homes, business, resorts, farms, fish pens, roads are destroyed or damaged
Chemical Plants Damaged / Destroyed • Earthquake and tsunami cause massive damage to chemical plants and port facilities in Anyer. • Hazardous materials threaten life and property in coastal and industrial areas
Day 2: November 20, 2009 • Ash continues to fall, moving east towards Jakarta • Foreign governments press GOI for information on their nationals vacationing in resorts on west coast of Java • International community offers relief aid, funds, personnel, equipment, and military support
Day 3: November 21, 2009 • GOI responds to the disasters • TNI supports BNPB, SATKORLAK • Indonesia NGOs, in-country representatives of international NGOs, UN agencies ( in country) support GOI • GOI resources are stretched to capacity • GOI, UNDAC assessment teams deploy • GOI welcomes international support and aid; starts prioritizing needs
Day 5: November 23, 2009 • 115,000 estimated population displaced • Looming health emergency for survivors • Food and potable water shortages creating • Insufficient medical resources • Significant international assistance begins to arrive in Jakarta and Serang. • Some Anyer port facilities are able to receive supplies
Day 7: November 25, 2009 • Foreign military commences major support to Banten Province relief efforts • Thousands remain homeless • Shelters overcrowded • Medical resources inadequate • Recovery of dead bodies and treatment of human remains becoming a major problem
Infrastructure Damage • Deaths: • Estimated 25,000 dead in Banten Province • 15,000 in coastal areas: Merak to Tamanjaya • 5,000 between coast and Serang • 2,500 in Banten town and south towards Serang • 2,000 in Serang • Injuries: • Approximately 18,000 (10,000 included in internally displaced) • Trauma, fire • Toxic poisoning • Internally Displaced: • Over 115,000 • Mostly inland between Anyer and Merak and vicinity of Serang
Infrastructure • Port Facilities: • Wharves and warehouses between Merak and Anyer damaged / destroyed • Chemical storage tanks in Merak port damaged; chemical spills cover coastal waters • Roads: • Roads between Merak and Tamanjaya damaged; many parts are impassible • Expressway linking Jakarta and Merak damaged; all overpasses between Merak and Serang damaged • Structures: • Virtually all buildings and residences in tsunami zone damaged or destroyed • Multi-story buildings in Serang damaged