Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty - Some Lessons for Effective Resource Policies

1. Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty - Some Lessons for Effective Resource Policies Stephan Slingerland Transatlantic Academy 12 January 2012

2. 3 Lessons for effective resource policies 2 Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

3. 3 Lessons for effective resource policies A different discussion 3 Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

4. 3 Lessons for effective resource policies A different discussion Transparent goals and interactions 4 Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

5. 3 Lessons for effective resource policies A different discussion Transparent goals and interactions A balanced mix of options 5 Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

6. Resource scarcity:1.A different discussion2. Transparent goals3. Balanced options Transatlantic Academy 12 January 2012

7. Resource scarcity is of all times… Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

8. Resource scarcity is of all times… Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

9. Resource scarcity is of all times… Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

10. Resource scarcity is of all times… Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

11. The current discussion has more dimensions Source: PBL, 2011 Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

12. Not only depletion, but also indirect physical effects of resource use … Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

13. Not only depletion, but also indirect physical effects of resource use … Climate change Source: PBL, 2009 Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

14. Not only depletion, but also indirect physical effects of resource use … Biodiversity loss Climate change Source: PBL, 2009 Source: PBL, 2011a Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

15. … short-term price peaks… Source: PBL, 2010 Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

16. … short-term price peaks… • Scarcity Resources too expensive • Abundance (environ-mental degradation): Resources too cheap Source: PBL, 2010 Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

17. … and resource security. Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

18. Most severe effects in developing countries. In PBL, 2011 Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

19. Resource scarcity:1. A different discussion2.Transparent goals3. Balanced options Transatlantic Academy 12 January 2012

20. Resource policies can have several objectives • Security of supply • Affordability • Environment • Development Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

21. Objectives can conflict: choices are required Source: PBL, 2011 Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

22. Current EU policy goals • Environment track / Resource efficiency • Flagship initiative ‘Resource Efficient Europe’ (January 2011) • ‘Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe’ (October 2011) • Security of supply track / Raw materials • ‘Tackling the challenges on commodity markets and on raw materials’ (February 2011) Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

23. Current EU policy goals • Environment track / Resource efficiency • Flagship initiative ‘Resource Efficient Europe’ (January 2011) • ‘Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe’ (October 2011) • Security of supply track / Raw materials • ‘Tackling the challenges on commodity markets and on raw materials’ (February 2011) Where are priorities? Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

24. Current EU policy goals • Environment track / Resource efficiency • Flagship initiative ‘Resource Efficient Europe’ (January 2011) • ‘Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe’ (October 2011) • Security of supply track / Raw materials • ‘Tackling the challenges on commodity markets and on raw materials’ (February 2011) Where are priorities? Where is development? Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

25. Resource scarcity:1. A different discussion2. Transparent goals3. Balanced options Transatlantic Academy 12 January 2012

26. Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

27. Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet Relative decoupling is not absolute decoupling 27 Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

28. Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet Relative decoupling is not absolute decoupling Rebound effect 28 Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

29. Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet Relative decoupling is not absolute decoupling Rebound effect Other necessary directions Substitution Behavioural changes 29 Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

30. Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet Relative decoupling is not absolute decoupling Rebound effect Other necessary directions Substitution Behavioural changes Involve other actors 30 Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

31. 3 Lessons for effective resource policies Integrate all dimensions of the new resource discussion Be transparent about trade-offs between goals Develop a balanced set of policy options 31 Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

32. Thank you! www.pbl.nl Transatlantic Academy 12 January 2012

33. Literature - PBL reports used • 2009 Growing within Limits • 2010 Scarcity and Transition • 2011 Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty • 2011a The Protein Puzzle • 2011b Rethinking Global Biodiversity Strategies • 2011c EU Resource Efficiency Perspectives in a Global Context • 2011d The Energic Society Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

34. Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

35. Efficiency will not achieve climate goals Source: PBL, 2011c Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty

36. Trade-offs need to be considered… Competing additional claims on land in 2050 • Agriculture • Energy crops • Protected area • Other ecosystem services • Forestry • Potentially lost due to degradation 7-31 million km2 available 17 million km2 Source: PBL, 2011a Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty