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Putting the Brakes on Climate Change

Putting the Brakes on Climate Change. 15 th October 2003. Based on ippr report Malcolm Fergusson, IEEP Balance of fuel efficiency versus traffic growth Trends and future prospects Julie Foley, ippr Need for continuing efforts New policy measures including road pricing. Introduction.

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Putting the Brakes on Climate Change

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  1. Putting the Brakes onClimate Change 15th October 2003

  2. Based on ippr report • Malcolm Fergusson, IEEP • Balance of fuel efficiency versus traffic growth • Trends and future prospects • Julie Foley, ippr • Need for continuing efforts • New policy measures including road pricing Introduction

  3. Car dependency and road freight New car sales in 2002 - 2.5 million Since mid 1980s: 24% increase in average number of car trips per person 60% increase in distance travelled by car 40% increase in goods traffic Lorries account for 2% of vehicles but 13% of motorway traffic (DfT Transport Statistics, 2003)

  4. Road traffic trend and forecast (DfT Transport Statistics & NTM, 2003)

  5. Road traffic CO2 trend (Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 2001)

  6. New model predicts traffic, emissions • Improvement on previous forecasts • Key assumptions • 20% improvement in car fuel economy • 12.5-15% improvement for vans and trucks • Car fuel cost falls by 30% 2000-2010 • 20-25% traffic growth to 2010 • Predicts CO2 level or falling to 2010 The National Transport Model

  7. Used similar model to test results • Key differences • Slightly less optimistic on car fuel economy • Much less optimistic for vans and trucks • Also projections to 2020 • Compared to emissions from other sectors IEEP’s road transport CO2 model

  8. Projected UK CO2 emissions (Measured in MtC)

  9. Transport CO2 could resume growth • Will grow as a share of total • Could jeopardise the 20% CO2 target • Transport CO2 reductions not assured • Traffic growth is still an issue Implications for UK Climate Programme

  10. Mitigating road transport’s contribution to climate change A reduction (reduced growth) in CO2 emissions from road transport should be a new PSA Price signals, voluntary measures and low carbon technologies needed Congestion charge research undertaken by Imperial College

  11. Congestion charge results

  12. Average money cost for rural versus urban motorists in 2010

  13. Winning over the motorist Little extra money for transport in the next spending review & beyond A national revenue raising charge introduced in 2010 could raise an extra £16 bn per year Revenue from charging should pay for better roads & public transport Government should abolish Vehicle Excise Duty (£4.5 bn in 2002/3)

  14. Voluntary agreements for improving fuel efficiency Further target of 120g/km CO2 for the average new car fleet by early in the next decade EC should adopt a more ambitious target for 2020 of 100 g/km CO2 or less New measures for improving the fuel efficiency of good vehicles needed

  15. Report available at: www.ippr.org/sustainability

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