IGAD: Lacking Unity but LIKELY TO Support ive AFRICOM

1. IGAD: Lacking Unity but LIKELY TO Supportive AFRICOM 18 February 2013 Produced for U.S. Africa Command by: Arthur Analyst Amy Analyst Andy Analyst Annie Analyst

2. Overview • Executive Summary • Key Findings • Discussion • Intergovernmental Authority on Development • Djibouti • Somalia • Sudan • Uganda

3. Executive summary Most IGAD members are likely to support AFRICOM mission despite lack of unity between members and instability in Sudan.

4. Djibouti’s location is ideal for CT operations in Yemen and Somalia and anti-piracy in the Gulf of Aden Sources: Inset - http://tinyurl.com/azlgv5m Large - http://tinyurl.com/3uluzjk Key Findings • IGAD: Unlikely to be unified, but likely to support • Security operations in Somalia • Peace negotiations in Sudan • Economic development • Djibouti: Likely to support • Base of operations for security missions • Facilitating diplomatic relations • Building economic cooperation

5. Key Findings • Somalia: Likely to support • AMISOM security operations • Delivery of public services • Reform of economic and judicial systems • Re-establishing diplomatic and economic ties • Sudan: Unlikely to support • Struggling with security and stability issues • Uganda: Likely to support • Direct military support for security missions • Continuing IGAD leadership President Hassan (left) and Secretary of State Clinton (right) at the press conference announcing the US recognition of Somalia. Source: http://tinyurl.com/apafxgf.

6. Djiboutian soldiers supporting the AMISOM mission in the Somali town of Belet Weyne Source: http://amisom-au.org/djibouti/ Discussion - IGAD • Unlikely to provide unified support to AFRICOM • Internal conflict restrains effectiveness • Somalia is an area of focus

7. Camp Lemonier in Djibouti provides AFRICOM a critical base of operations in the Horn of Africa Sources: Camp - http://tinyurl.com/ao2tfcv Inset - http://tinyurl.com/af2cxc8 Discussion - Djibouti • Ideal location for counterterrorism and antipiracy missions • Troop support to AMISOM • Facilitator for diplomatic relations among IGAD members • Economic growth is key to regional stability

8. Southern Somalia: recent government-allied advances against Al Shabaab Source: Maps by Evan Centanni, Eric Gaba, and TheEmirr. (license: CC BY-SA) http://tinyurl.com/a9qrq7z. Discussion - Somalia • Pledged support to AFRICOM and IGAD missions • Using international assistance to provide public services • New constitution and government • Rapprochement with other IGAD member states

9. Disputed border areas and conflicts during 2012. Source: http://tinyurl.com/bbrwgo2. Discussion - Sudan • Hampered by domestic security and stability issues • Economic downturn due to decrease in oil sales • Border violence with rebel groups • Refused IGAD meditation for negotiations with South Sudan

10. Discussion - Uganda • Well-trained military • Key to fight against LRA in South Sudan • Provides significant troop support to AMISOM • Active leadership role in IGAD U.S. Marine training Ugandan Soldier (Kampala, Uganda) Source: http://www.africom.mil/NEWSROOM/Article/8863/us-marine-corps-forces-africa-partners-with-uganda

11. Analytic confidence • Analytic confidence is high • Source reliability is very high • Analysts’ expertise is high • Time available for task was adequate • Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

12. Questions? Contact Information: Djibouti: • Arthur Analyst • Email: aa@lakers.mercyhurst.edu Somalia: • Amy Analyst • Email: aa2@lakers.mercyhurst.edu Sudan : • Andy Analyst • E-Mail: aa3@lakers.mercyhurst.edu Uganda : • Any Analyst • Email: aa4@lakers.mercyhurst.edu

13. Primary references • Jane’s Information Group. (2012). North Africa Security Assessment. Jane’s Sentinel, 31. (Reliability: 48.08, Very High. Accessed January 2013) • http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudan-lays-bare-reservations-over,42468 (Reliability:47.94, Very High. Accessed February 2013) • http://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/countries/east-africa/djibouti/ (Reliability: 43.79, High. Accessed January 2013) • http://www.igad.int/attachments/559_COMMUNIQUE%20OF%20THE%2046th%20IGAD%20EXTRAORDINARY%20COUNCIL%20MINISTERS.pdf. (Reliability: 52.88, Very High. Accessed February 2013) • http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-expands-secret-intelligence-operations-in-africa/2012/06/13/gJQAHyvAbV_story_3.html (Reliability: 52.8, Very High. Accessed February 2013)

14. Primary references • http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16969483(Reliability: 52.09, Very High. Accessed January 2013) • http://sabahionline.com/en_GB/articles/hoa/articles/newsbriefs/2013/01/21/newsbrief-07(Reliability: 48.31, Very High. Accessed January 2013) • http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/opinion/hope-and-lessons-in-somalia.html?_r=0(Reliability: 42.77, High. Accessed January 2013) • http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/africa/2013-01/27/c_132130154.htm (Reliability: 39.09, Medium. Accessed February 2013)

15. Primary references • http://news.sudanvisiondaily.com/details.html?rsnpid=209843(Reliability: 46, High. Accessed February 2013) • http://news.yahoo.com/african-mediators-press-sudans-end-stand-off-151428704.html(Reliability: 47, High. Accessed February 2013) • http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/1257300/-/bhytjgz/-/index.html (Reliability: 48.36, High. Accessed February 2013) • http://www.africom.mil/Newsroom/Article/8495/ugandan-press-delegation-visits-us-africa-command- (Reliability: 52.88, Very High. Accessed January 2013)