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Understanding Climate Sensitivities of ENSO: Theory, Observations, Modeling

Explore the impacts of ENSO climate sensitivities through theory, observations, and modeling. Discover key factors affecting ENSO behavior and the role of background state. Dive into the nuances of mixed-layer temperature anomalies and stochastic forcing in the Indian Ocean.

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Understanding Climate Sensitivities of ENSO: Theory, Observations, Modeling

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  1. Climate Sensitivities of ENSO Bridging theory, observations, and modeling Andrew Wittenberg GFDL/NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA Thanks to: Gabriel Vecchi, Qian Song, and Anthony Rosati

  2. “Other worlds” in CGCMs

  3. Mixed layer temperature anomaly tendency equation Key to understanding impact of background state on ENSO.

  4. Mixed layer temperature anomaly tendency equation Key to understanding impact of background state on ENSO.

  5. ICM Control Run

  6. ICM: Impact of trade wind strength

  7. Blocking the Indonesian Throughflow: Change in mean SST (degC)

  8. Blocking the Indonesian Throughflow: Anomaly patterns (regressed on NINO3)

  9. Stochastic forcing: A role for the Indian Ocean Daily west-Pacific zonal stress from 10 AM2 runs Observed SST forcing

  10. Stochastic forcing: A role for the Indian Ocean Daily west-Pacific zonal stress from 10 AM2 runs Observed SST forcing Warm East Indian

  11. Summary 1) CGCMs: “Other Worlds” 2) Mixed layer heat budget & “frequency budget” 3) ICM: perturbations seed feedbacks, which alter ENSO 4) CM2: flux anomaly patterns sensitive to background 5) WWBs, nonlinearity, and a role for the Indian Ocean

  12. CM2 greenhouse response

  13. Equatorial adjustment to off-equatorial stress

  14. ICM: Different climate perturbations, similar effects

  15. CM2 anomaly patterns: Wind stress

  16. CM2 anomaly patterns: Surface heat flux

  17. A wide variety of products

  18. ICM: Mixed layer heat budget

  19. Hybrid CGCM mixed layer heat budget

  20. Impact of weakening equatorial zonal stress

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