Recent Advances at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction

1. Recent Advances at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP University of Arizona October 21, 2004

2. Overview • Define NCEP • Today’s Model Suite • Recent Advancements • Climate Forecast System • WRF • Wave Watch III • Air Quality • JCSDA • Future Plans: Models • ESMF – Hybrid Approach • Ensembles (NAEFS)

3. Define NCEP

4. NCEP Mission Statement NCEP delivers national and global weather, climate, ocean and water guidance, forecasts, warnings, and analyses to its NWS Partners and External User Communities. These products and services respond to user needs to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy, and support the nation’s environmental information database. NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center Space Environment Center Tropical Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center

5. NCEP’s Future Location New Location NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Research Park, College Park (Early FY08) Current Location NOAA Science Center World Weather Building Camp Springs

6. NCEP’s Future Location NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Research Park, College Park (Early FY08)

7. Total FTE: 429* 131 Contractors/24 Visitors *As of 10/1/04 *54 FTE

8. Severe Storm Outlooks Fire Weather Outlooks Winter Weather Guidance Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts to 5 days Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Day 8-14 Critical Weather Outlooks Marine Weather Discussions Model Discussions Severe Weather Watches Marine High Seas Forecasts Hurricane Watches and Warnings Aviation Warnings (Convective, Turbulence, Icing) Climate Forecasts (Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual) Solar Monitoring – geomagnetic storm forecasts What Does NCEP Do? Guidance to Support WFO/RFC National Products • Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and RRegional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather • International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts • Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation • Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

9. NCEP’s Future is Built Upon: • Climate-Weather-Water-Land-Chemistry Linkages; for example • Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks & Extratropical Storm patterns • Meteorological-Hydrological forecasts • Ocean and atmosphere coupled forecasts • Atmosphere-Land Processes coupled forecasts • Relationship of solar activity on service provision and climate fluctuations • Ozone forecasts by combining air chemistry and operational models • “Seamless Suite” of products through a collaborative approach • Extension of predictability of Weather and Climate (from snowstorms to ENSO); Improve the forecasts of Extreme Events • Community Model Approach – Common Model Infrastructure • Addressing forecast uncertainty – Ensemble modeling • Test Beds in each Service Center • U.S.Weather Research Program THORPEX: International Polar Year – 07/08 GEOSS

11. Student Employment Programs at NOAA • Student Educational Experience Program (SEEP) • Student Career Experience Program (SCEP) - SCEP is a program that provides experience that is directly related to the student’s educational program and career goals. SCEP replaces the Cooperative Education Program (COOP). Agreements are made with an accredited school combined with periods of career-related work in a Federal agency. Students earn federal benefits. Students interested in applying for a SCEP position should contact the Cooperative Education Coordinator at their school. • Student Temporary Employment Programs (STEP) - Does not have to be in your career field. The position is not to exceed one year with incremental extensions. It is great for career exploration.

12. Student Employment Programs at NOAA • NOAA Faculty and Student Intern Research Program administered by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE): • Ten week faculty and student intern research program. Primary focus to provide work experience to faculty, graduate and undergraduate students under represented in mission-related occupations. FTE neutral. • NOAA’s Educational Partnership Program • Sponsored by the NOAA Diversity office and funded by Congress. Students are recruited from Minority Serving Institutes. Salary and graduate school tuition are paid for while attending school. • Workforce Recruitment Program • The WRP is a resource for federal agencies nationwide to provide employment opportunities for qualified students with disabilities. FTE neutral. • For more information on all programs • http://www.weather.gov/eeo/StudentResearchOpportunities.htm

13. NCEP Employment Situation • Employment situation – FY04 • Total of 375 Civil Servants; 146 contractors; 18 visitors • Currently have 5 Student Interns (SCEP/STEP) • During the last 12 months • 32 CS vacancies; 5 SCEPs; • Hired 22 contractors & visiting scientists • 20 Summer/Student Program Hires (ORISE, GoHFAS, NOAA Educational Partnership Programs) • Projected growth through ’08: 50 – 60 (contractors/visiting scientists/postdocs)

14. Today’s Model Suite

15. Computing Capability $20M/Year Investment Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) • Receives Over 123 Million Global Observations Daily • Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec • Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day • Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) • Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) • Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) • 2.4x upgrade operational by mid-January, 2005 • Backup in Fairmont, WV operational by mid-January, 2005

16. NCEP Operational Models Eta 12 km, 60 levels, 84 hrs at 0 , 6, 12 and 18Z Global Forecast System (GFS) T254 (~55 km) to 3.5 days (84 hrs), 64 levels T170 (~75 km) to 7.5 days (180 hrs), 42 levels T126 (~105 km) to 16 days (384 hrs), 28 levels 16 days (384 hrs)/4 times per day RUC 20 km, 50 levels 12 hrs at 0,3,6,9,12,15,18,21Z 3 hrs at 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,13,14, 16,17,19,20,22,23Z Climate Forecast System (CFS) T62 (~200 km), 64 levels, 10 months/ 1/day at 00Z 40-level GFDL Modular Ocean Model (MOM3) GFDL Hurricane Model coupled ocean-atmosphere Two nests (0.5, 1/6 deg lat/lon) 42 levels 126 hrs at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z Wave Model global - 1.25 x 1.0 deg lat/lon Alaskan Regional - .5 x .25 deg lat/lon Western North Atlantic - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon Eastern North Pacific - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon 1 level, 168 hrs/4 times per day North Atlantic Hurricane (seasonal) North Pacific Hurricane (seasonal) .25 x .25 deg lat/lon 1 level 78 hours/4 times per day Ensembles global 10 members at 00, 06,12,18Z T126 (~105 km) to 180 hrs, T62 (210 km) to 384 hrs 28 levels, 16 days (384 hrs) regional 10 members at 0 and 12Z 32 km, 60 levels, 63 hrs from 9 and 21Z

17. NCEP Operational Models High Resolution Window (Non-hydrostatic Nest) 8 km, 60 levels, 48 hrs at 0 , 6, 12 and 18Z AK, HI at 00Z, West US, PR at 06Z, Cent US, HI at 12Z, East US, PR at 18Z Fire Wx/IMET Support (Non-hydrostatic Nest) 8 km, 60 levels, 48 hours, up to 4/day Selectable area from 26, 900 km2 domains HYSPLIT Dispersion Model run on demand using 4 km Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) Air Quality Forecast System 12 km, 22 levels, 48 hours, 2/day at 6, 12Z Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension (DGEX) 12 km, 60 levels (downscaled locally to 5km) CONUS at 06 and 18Z, AK at 00 and 12Z 84-192 h 4 km terrain

18. Forecast Model Dependencies GFDL Hurricane GFS WRF NMM Dispersion CFS Eta Air Quality NOAH Land Surface Model

19. Model Access • Through the Web • While the model is running • Fastest access possible

21. Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page Access introduced July 17, 2001 # of graphics produced per day 3623 18333 38670 28898 35130 23180 24774

22. Recent Advancements • Climate Forecast System • WRF • Wave Watch III • Air Quality

23. Recent Advancements: Climate Forecast System

24. The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System(implemented August 24, 2004) • Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03) • T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical • Recent upgrades in model physics • Solar radiation (Hou, 1996) • cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998) • gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995) • cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997) 1. Atmospheric component 2. Oceanic component • GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998) • 1/3°x1° in tropics; 1°x1° in extratropics; 40 layers • Quasi-global domain (74°S to 64°N) • Free surface 3. Coupled model • Once-a-day coupling • Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology

25. Coupled Model Simulation ENSO SST cycles Simulated 2002-2040 (top) Observed 1965-2003 (bottom)

26. Coupled Model Simulation SST Interannual Variability Observed 28 Level Atm 64 Level Atm

27. Most Recent CFS Latest CPC Forecast: El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to last through early 2005.

30. Seasonal Temperature Outlook –Dec-Jan-Feb 2004-05

31. Seasonal Precipitation Outlook –Dec-Jan-Feb 2004-05

32. Recent Advancements: WRF

33. WRFNOAA, AFWA, NCAR, FAA, NRL Explicit Cores (e.g., Hurricane, Dispersion, Aviation) • The next-generation mesoscale NWP modeling system for research and operations • Sustained by AF, Navy, NCEP, NCAR • Testing underway of all combinations of 2 dynamic cores and 2 physics packages at DoD Major Shared Resource Center (one month from each season) • First operational implementation at NCEP September 21, 2004, implementation at AF by Spring, ’05 C M I NCAR NCEP NMM

34. NCEP Mesoscale Forecast Systems to be replaced by WRF configurations EDAS NA (Eta) Analysis HiResWindow RUC SREF NA (Eta Forecast)

35. Implementation Schedule • HiResWindow: WRF Ensemble Operational Sept. 21, 2004 (2 members) (6 members, FY06) • North American Mesoscale WRF: Operational in FY05 • FireWeather/IMET Support and Homeland Security: WRF-NMM Operational in FY06 • Hurricane WRF: FY06 - 07 • Rapid Refresh WRF: Operational in FY07 • WRF SREF: Operational in FY07

36. The Flow of Science from Research to Operations in the WRF Era: A Plan to Bridge the “Valley of Death” The research community: DTC Developmental Test bed Center, Boulder OTC- NCEP OTC- Air Force OTC- Navy NCEP Navy Air Force EMC NRL NCAR NCO FNMOC AFWA

37. 24 Hour Accumulated Precipitation Valid 12Z 6 September, 2004, 42 Hour Forecast OPS. NMM WRF NMM CPC RFC 1/8 deg Verification Tropical Storm Frances: Subjective Comparison OPS. Eta WRF EM

38. WRF EM 24 Hour Accumulated Precipitation Valid 12Z 30 August, 2004, 42 Hour Forecast WRF NMM OPS. NMM CPC RFC 1/8 deg Verification Tropical Storm Gaston: Subjective Comparison OPS. Eta

39. Recent Advancements: Wave Watch III

40. new model required WAVEWATCH III • New model design with emphasis on transparency, vectorization and parallelization (plug compatible, portable). • More general governing transport equation, allowing for later full coupling with ocean models. • All models use GFS and ice edge information from NCEP's operational ice analysis. A special GFDL driven version of the Western North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific wave model are run for hurricane wave prediction (72h forecast).

41. Isabel 18/9/2003, 12 UTC 12h forecast nowcast Intensity and location of forecast waves consistent and confirmed by altimeter and buoy observations. At 48h forecast lower wave heights due to earlier landfall. 24h forecast 48h forecast wave height 50+ ft (45+ ft)

42. Isabel at Field Research Facility Duck NC 9/18 14:00 EDT 9/29 14:00 EDT Maximum observed wave height at the end of the pier 26.6ft, which is roughly the maximum sustainable wave height for the local water depth. Wave height 2 miles offshore reported up to 49 ft. pictures from US Army Corps Of Engineers Field Research Facility webcam

43. Recent Advancements: Air Quality Forecast System

44. Air Quality Prediction at NCEP • Initial (FY2003 – FY2008): • 1-day forecasts of surface ozone (O3) concentration (twice per day) using NOAA/EPA community model for AQ (CMAQ)linked to 12 km Eta • Validated in testing over Northeastern USdomain during 03 and 04, • Declared operational September 13, 2004 • Deploy Nationwide within 5 years • Intermediate (FY2008 – FY2010): • Develop and test capability to forecast particulate matter (PM) concentration • Longer range (by FY2013): • Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours • Include broader range of significant pollutants

45. Forecast Observed Objective Verification 7/22/04 8 hour Peak Ozone BIAS in max 1-hr ozone concentration

46. JCSDA 2003 Daily Upper Air Observation Count 2002 Count (Millions)

47. Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilationcreated July 2, 2001 Accelerate use of research and operational satellite data in operational numerical prediction models • Increase uses of current satellite data in NWP models • Develop the hardware/software systems needed to assimilate data from the advanced satellite sensors • Advance the common NWP models and data assimilation infrastructure • Develop common fast radiative transfer system • Assess the impacts of data from advanced satellite sensors on weather and climate predictions • Reduce the average time for operational implementations of new satellite technology from two years to one Goals:

48. PARTNERS NOAA/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/OAR Office of Weather and Air Quality NASA/Goddard Global Modeling & Assimilation Office US Navy NOAA/NESDIS Oceanographer of the Navy, Office of Naval Research (NRL) Office of Research & AF Director of Weather AF Weather Agency Applications US Air Force JCSDA Partners

49. JCSDA FY03-05 Major Projects • JCSDA is funding 18 extramural research projects to develop the state of-the-art satellite data assimilation system (e.g. uses of cloudy radiances from advanced satellite instruments, uses of satellite snow and vegetation products) • Preparation for uses of advanced satellite data such as METOP (IASI/AMSU/HSB), DMSP (SSM/IS) and EOS (Aqua AIRS, AMSR-E) • NCEP global data assimilation system implemented into NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) forecast system • JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model • Snow and sea ice emissivity models for improving uses of satellite microwave sounding data over high latitudes • Impact studies of POES AMSU, EOS AIRS, DMSP SSMIS, MODIS, GPS Occultation on NWP through EMC parallel experiments

50. JCSDA Accomplishments • Land emissivity model tested in NCEP operational models • Positive impacts with AMSU data over land (May,2002) • Operational implementation (October, 2002) • Enabled use of microwave radiances over land • Adoption of NCEP Data Assimilation by GFSC • New Data used in NCEP operational models • SSM/I, TRMM microwave imager precipitation estimates; AMSU cloud liquid water • GOES -10-12 IR radiances • QuikSCAT data ( ~ 5 to 15% improvement in 10 m winds) • AIRS Assessment • Full resolution tests indicate positive impact, focused on 254 channels out of 2378 • Full data assimilation implementation scheduled for 1st Quarter FY05 • MODIS winds implementation scheduled for !st Quarter FY05