Presentation Transcript

1. Report 75.0- 1stQuarter Release - Johannesburg 14 May 2014
2. General Local Developments: Media Inflation Watch Up-date 2013 Media Inflation Watch revealed Radio as the most aggressive platform from a rate perspective; up 11.54% yoy. With declining circulation, however, and an absence of support / research from the key players in print, the published inflation data must be raising value concerns.
3. AMPS / JIC’s and the rest! With the latest AMPS hot into the market, many marketers and perhaps publishers have perhaps taken their collective eye off the future of what will become of AMPS in its new “establishment” survey role. PAMS has still to be agreed, it’s content decided and funding issues remain the elephant in the room. What is clear is that the TV broadcasters are now driving the process and even siblings such as radio appear now to be an afterthought. Print has a powerful story to tell as proven over the passing of Nelson Mandela and recently demonstrated via Millward Brown’s independent research. Print research going forward must demonstrate the value of print and not just the quantum. Value is determined by return on investment and not just the rates charged.. Finally, in respect of the research, we should remember that digital is the new print ink, and not a competitor. The future for print in Africa will be a combination of both written delivery methods.
4. International Developments: Print “Only” readership holding its own in the USA A new analysis (Feb 2014) of the most recent newspaper audience reports suggests a surprising split in reading habits. Digital audience continues to grow. Mobile audience is growing quickly. Mobile-only audience, though much smaller, has grown to 7 million. Yet more than half of newspaper audience — 54 percent still read their local paper’s news report only in print. The daily circulation gains (+3%) however were entirely driven by digital gains at the largest newspapers. Sunday gains also reflected the heavy use of “Sunday Select” products — packets of inserts to non-subscribers — by larger papers.
5. Rule Amendments effective 1st January 2014: PDF Replica Editions: Paid Circulation – circulation is counted when payment is received. Bulk sales – The publisher must prove distribution in terms of a list provided by the purchaser – limited to 10% of total paid circulation. Free bulk distribution is excluded.
6. Membership Statistics:
7. Sector sizeranked by circulation– Quarter 1 2014:
8. Overall Economic Perspective Comment: Real GDP at market prices increased by 1.9% in 2013. The main increase was in Finance, Real Estate & Business. Retail sales grew by 2.2% year on year in February 2014.The main increase was in Textiles, Clothing, Footwear and Leather.
9. 4 Year Total Newspaper Circulation Trend by Quarter: Comment: Total Newspaper circulation increased by 20,000 compared to the previous quarter.
10. 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Daily Newspapers Comment: Circulation has declined annually by 4.5% since 2010, equivalent to 304,000 copies. However, Q1 remained static, compared to Q4.
11. 4 Year Trend Analysis by Language Daily Newspapers Comment: English titles have declined by 4.7% annually (232, 000 copies) over the period. Afrikaans titles have declined by 6.5% annually (87,000 copies) over the period. Vernacular titles have increased by 3.5% (15,000 copies) over the period.
12. 4 Year Trend Analysis: Coastal vs Inland Daily Newspapers Comment: Inland circulation declined annually by 4.7% (208,000 copies) over the period. Coastal circulation declined annually by 4.% (96,000 copies) over the period. Q1 increased by 20,000 copies compared to Q4.
13. Titles Showing Largest GrowthDaily Newspapers
14. Titles Showing Largest DeclineDaily Newspapers
15. New Members / RemovalsDaily Newspapers
16. 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Weekly Newspapers Comment: Weekly newspapers reflect an erratic performance. Q1, however, declined by 2.5% (13,000 copies) compared to Q4.
17. Titles Showing Largest GrowthWeekly Newspapers
18. Titles Showing Largest DeclineWeekly Newspapers
19. New Members / RemovalsWeekly Newspapers
20. 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Weekend Newspapers Comment: Circulation has declined annually by 5% (485,000 copies) over the period. Q1, however, only declined by 1.8% (34,000 copies) compared to Q4.
21. 4 Year Trend Analysis by Language:Weekend Newspapers Comment: English titles have declined annually by 5.5% (367,000 copies) over the period. Afrikaans titles have declined annually by 8% (193,000 copies) over the period. Vernacular titles have grown annually by 11.6% (76,000 copies) over the period.
22. Titles Showing Largest GrowthWeekend Newspapers
23. Titles Showing Largest DeclineWeekend Newspapers
24. New Members / RemovalsWeekend Newspapers
25. 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Local Newspapers Comment: Local Newspapers have declined by 2.8% (63,000 copies) over the period. Q1 increased by 11,000 copies compared to Q4.
26. Titles Showing Largest GrowthLocal Newspapers
27. Titles Showing Largest DeclineLocal Newspapers
28. New Members / RemovalsLocal Newspapers
29. 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Hybrid Newspapers Comment: Circulation shows a dramatic decline as a result of The Times moving to Daily Newspapers in Q4. Q1 remained static compared to Q4.
30. New Members / RemovalsHybrid Newspapers
31. 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Free Newspapers Comment: Distribution has increased annually by 7.1% (1,513,000 copies) over the period. Q1 increased by 53,000 copies compared to Q4.
32. New Members / RemovalsFree Newspapers
33. Titles Showing Largest GrowthFree Newspapers
34. Titles Showing Largest DeclineFree Newspapers
35. 4 Year Magazine Circulation by Quarter Comment: Total magazines increased by 0.5% (97,000 copies) over the previous quarter. Consumer magazines decreased by 0.4% (24,000 copies) over the previous quarter.
36. 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Consumer Magazines Comment: Circulation declined annually by 1.7% (468,000 copies) over the period, although the decline has slowed in Q1 compared to the previous 6 quarters.
37. New Members / RemovalsConsumer Magazines
38. Titles Showing Largest GrowthConsumer Magazines
39. Titles Showing Largest DeclineConsumer Magazines
40. 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Consumer Magazines - Home Comment: Circulation has remained static over the period, Q1, however, increased by 20,000 copies compared to Q4..
41. 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Consumer Magazines - Sport and Hobby Comment: Circulation declined annually by 3.3% (66,000 copies) over the period. Q1 remained static compared to Q4.
42. 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Consumer Magazines - Travel Comment: Circulation increased annually by 22.7% (259,000 copies) over the period, fluctuating considerably as a result of biennial reporting titles. Q1 increased by 19,000 copies compared to Q4.
43. 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Consumer Magazines – Woman’s General Comment: Circulation declined by 3.4% annually (237,000 copies) over the period. Q1 decreased by 48,000 copies compared to Q4, mainly the result of a discontinued title.
44. 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Business to Business Magazines Comment: Circulation has remained static over the period.
45. Titles Showing Largest GrowthBusiness to Business Magazines
46. Titles Showing Largest DeclineBusiness to Business Magazines
47. 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:B2B Magazines – Hospitality, Catering and Tourism Comment: Circulation declined annually by 13% (62,000 copies) over the period, although has remained fairly static over the last year.
48. 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Custom Magazines Comment: Circulation increased annually by 2% (918,000 copies) over the period. Q1 increased by 204,000 copies compared to Q4.
49. Titles Showing Largest GrowthCustom Magazines
50. Titles Showing Largest DeclineCustom Magazines
51. 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Custom Magazines – Entertainment Comment: Circulation increased annually by 5.7% (513,000 copies) over the period. However, Q1 increased by 9% (221,000 copies) compared to Q4.
52. 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Custom Magazines – Retail Comment: Circulation increased annually by 1% (263,000 copies) over the period. Q1 remained static compared to Q4.
53. 4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Free Magazines Comment: Circulation declined annually by 16.9% over the period. Q1 decreased by 10% (60,000 copies) compared to Q4.
54. Observations: With the elections behind us we should remember that circulation remains “democracy in print”; perhaps the most accurate expression of public support” available for publisher and advertiser scrutiny and decision making. The results that you have seen this morning should be scrutinized and the implications understood fully by all stakeholders. Within each segment there are winners as well as titles where there is room for improvement. Decisions and negotiations going forward should be based on such objective performance results. Press: Daily Newspaper performance remains promising as results show consistency with Q4 2013. It is interesting to point out that inland circulations dropped unexpectedly. However Daily Dispatch jumped 18% and Isolezwe was up 11% on Q4 2013. Weeklies, The slide continues down a further 2.5% on 2013 Q4. Weekend titles dropped only 1.8% albeit Afrikaans titles faired worse than their English or vernacular counterparts. The Local and free newspapers category grew over the period with strong growth in particular from the Review Midweek.
55. Magazines: The overall performance of the magazine category suggest stability. This is not true. There were more closures than new entrants. This combination obscures the results. Specific highlights include: The travel category jumped 19 000 copies since Q4 2013. Discontinued titles in the Woman’s General category resulted in the category reflecting a decline. In the Business 2 Business segment, the circulation declined marginally. That said, Business Brief jumped 62% year on year which is a remarkable performance given its target market. Custom magazines continue to grow, up 204 000 copies compared to Q4 2013. Growth was as expected industry specific. Taxi Talk jumped 394%, while retail titles remained fairly static. Free magazines declined 10% on 2013 Q4 In summary newspapers continue to perform relatively better than magazines, which given the prophets of a digital apocalypse seems counter intuitive. What remains clear is that relevant content remains king…irrespective of the channel.
56. Thank you.
57. Your ABC - Transparency you can see -