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Climate variability on multiple time scales:

Climate variability on multiple time scales:. Monsoon bursts and El Nino clash over SE Asia. Dr. Matthew Wheeler Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Australia. Outline. El Nino and SE Asian drought Madden Julian Oscillation and monsoon “bursts” Jakarta’s February floods

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Climate variability on multiple time scales:

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  1. Climate variability on multiple time scales: Monsoon bursts and El Nino clash over SE Asia Dr. Matthew Wheeler Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Australia

  2. Outline • El Nino and SE Asian drought • Madden Julian Oscillation and monsoon “bursts” • Jakarta’s February floods • Climate Change • Sustainable Development

  3. The impacts of El Nino 1997-98 drought-induced fires in Indonesia Smoke from fires in Indonesia affecting Manila in September 1997

  4. El Nino as seen in Pacific Ocean Temperatures West Pacific East Pacific

  5. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Approximate 1 month sequence • 30 to 60-day period • Generates “active” and “break” periods/bursts of the monsoon • Involved in monsoon onset and tropical cyclone development. Monsoon “break” TC formation Trade Wind surge Monsoon westerlies ACTIVE “BURST” OF INDONESIAN-AUSTRALIAN MONSOON Westerly Wind Burst Jakarta’s floods of Jan/Feb 2002

  6. Satellite-observed clouds/rainfall Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Low values = clouds and rain High values = clear skies AREA AVERAGE

  7. Jakarta floods Satellite-observed clouds/rainfall Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Low values = clouds and rain High values = clear skies MJO AREA AVERAGE

  8. 2.5oN - 12.5oS - The MJO as a wavein the weather 2001 The signal of the MJO in the clouds as it moves eastward. 2002

  9. { Jakarta floods 2.5oN - 12.5oS - The MJO as a wavein the weather 2001 The signal of the MJO in the clouds as it moves eastward. 2002 MJO

  10. 2.5oN - 12.5oS - An Example forecast from the 13th of January OBSERVATIONS 13th JANUARY { FORECAST Jakarta floods Prediction of the MJO • New technique, using digital signalprocessing of satellite data • Used to predict the active versus break periods • Calculated daily

  11. { Floods MJO Prediction:Example maps from 13th Jan Initial Condition 7 - 13 JAN Week 1 forecast 14 - 20 JAN Week 2 forecast 21 - 27 JAN Week 3 forecast 28 JAN - 3 FEB

  12. The Multiple Time Scales of Climate Weather MJO/monsoon bursts Annual cycle El Nino/La Nina Decadal Variability Climate Change Time scale increasing

  13. Monsoon “break” TC formation Trade Wind surge Monsoon westerlies ACTIVE “BURST” OF INDONESIAN-AUSTRALIAN MONSOON Westerly Wind Burst Ocean wave MJO sequence (~ 1 month) MJOinteractionwith El Nino Possible El Nino 6-12 months later

  14. Climate Variability and Sustainable Development • Prediction is useful, but gains can also be made just by acknowledging that such variability exists. • Our vulnerability is often increasing. • The climate science is important, but so is the partnership with the human dimensions.

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