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Enhancing the SEMCOG Travel Model: A Path to Advanced Demand Forecasting

This report discusses the SEMCOG Travel Model Improvement Program, focusing on developing an ideal model that is needs-driven, defensible, and capable of responding to current challenges. It highlights the importance of incorporating federal and local requirements, performance measures, and best practices in demand forecasting. The report emphasizes strategies for advanced modeling to support multimodal investment, operational and environmental assessments, and compliance with regulatory standards. Key recommendations aim to evolve the modeling approaches to enhance reliability and applicability in various transportation scenarios.

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Enhancing the SEMCOG Travel Model: A Path to Advanced Demand Forecasting

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  1. Analytical Needs SEMCOG Travel Model Improvement Program 12-Dec-2011 Donnelly, Davidson, Binkowski & Arens

  2. The ideal model? Needs driven Best practice, defensible, credible Data, resources Life-cycle view, incremental Evolutionary, compatible Responsive Current Attainable Agile Extensible

  3. Outline • National issues and trends • Federal requirements • Certification • New Starts • Local requirements • Strategic uses • Tactical uses • Performance measures

  4. Motivation for advanced models TRB Special Report 288, “Metropolitan travel forecasting: current practice and future direction” (2007) The committee therefore recommends development and implementation of new modeling approaches to demand forecasting that are better suited to providing reliable information for such applications as multimodal investment analyses, operational analyses, environmental assessments, evaluations of a wide range of policy alternatives, toll-facility revenue forecasts, and freight forecasts, and to meeting federal and state regulatory requirements.

  5. Federal requirements • Model certification (FHWA) • Inventory of current transportation system • Key assumptions driving forecasts • Model descriptions • New Starts (FTA) • Asymptomatic standard practice model • Internal consistency • Robust mode choice model • Transit path-building and assignment • Standardized reporting (SUMMIT)

  6. Local requirements

  7. Modeling “strategic shrinking”

  8. Performance measures Transportation-related measures: • Infrastructure utilization rates • Peak service, demand, and total consumption • Transit ridership • Percentage of time in compliance with AQ standards

  9. Requirements g recommendations Dynamic network model Land use-transport model Best practice (E7+) model Best practice (E7+) model Activity-based model

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