Presentation Transcript

1. Developments and Trendsin Wireless Communications

   4 January, 2011 Eran Gorev President and CEO
2. Wireless Communications: Narrowing the Development Gap Wireless is an infrastructure for economic growth Creating a connected society Reaching Rural and Remote Wireless now plays the role that fixed telephony played in developed countries in the 1970’s and 1980’s, as the main source for information and communication technology Macroeconomic benefits: Boosting national economies Boosting individuals: access to opportunities, personal productivity O3B: “The Other 3 Billion” Connecting the unconnected Bridging the Digital Divide Emerging advantages of information access Tele-medicine, Tele-education, Tele-working, etc.
3. The World is Going Mobile From a connected society to a mobile society 1980: McKinsey predicts 900K US users by 2000;the reality: 109 million 2010: 5 billion users and growing! Homes without a landline becoming mainstream Everything is mobile Mobile social networks Mobile payments Mobile entertainment Mobile advertising Location-based everything
4. Smartphones Fuelling Demand for Mobile Broadband (1) Supporting ecosystems makeeverything just one click away Apps, apps and more apps Mobile Internet access The bar is rising: from “anytime, anywhere” to “broadband anywhere” Smartphones and a new generation of display-oriented connected devices iPhone, Android and more: outgrowing PCs and laptops Tablets, mini-PCs, e-Readers
5. Smartphones Fuelling Demand for Mobile Broadband (2) Capacity demand 4G Demand risks outstripping supply Capacity supply 3G Data becomes Primary demand driver 2G Mass-market adoption of mobile voice *Source: Company data, HSBC estimates 3G and 4G networks may not be able to cope with demand This will require a paradigm shift in operators’ approach
6. Demand Trend vs. Physics Reality 4G reaches Shannon Law limits Spectrum utilization is limited with conventional deployment (due to interfered environment) Sources: Cisco, 2008; Informa, 2008; Analyst Insight 2008 Leveraging topology and mitigating interference will provide next performance leap: LTE-Advanced LTE-A peak rate: 15 bps/Hz (4x4); 30 bps/Hz (8x8) 300/600 Mbps (20 MHz); 1.5 Gbps (100 MHz) *Source: Qualcomm Data Demand Trend Physics Reality
7. CoMP is a Future, But When? Phase 1 Working with LTE Rel 8 UEs Phase 2 LTE-A UEs only Inter-cell interference management (SON, ICIC) Fully Coordinated Coordinated Multi-Point Transmission Distributed antenna system based on, e.g. Radio over Fibre (RoF) Capability of joint control of signals at multiple cells
8. Machine-to-Machine: The Next Big Thing? Are we looking at the next 5B users? A plethora of M2M applications, devices, technologies Smart metering Environmental monitoring Fleet tracking Pet tracking Connected appliances Digital billboards …and much more
9. Broadband Near and Far RFID Bluetooth WiFi 3G 4G: WiMAX and LTE Broadband across personal, local, wide and ultra-wide networks 4G to connect them all
10. Real Life Example: AT&T and the iPhone x50 growth in mobile data traffic in 3 years… … leading to deteriorating service and disgruntled customers
11. Multi $M Investments to Regain Service Quality
12. Real Life Example: “Digital Houston” Initiative Vision Communities fully integrated by a regional wireless networkallowing instant access, anytime Leveraging education, healthcare, transportation,public safety and community non-profit investments in IT applications Promoting economic development, innovation and productivity improvements Objectives Reduce/avoid government cost of mobile data devices Digital divide access and education enhancement i.e. more students with home access Increase consumer choice and make services more affordable From $30-$50 to $10-$20 monthly, fixed, nomadic and mobile Promote economic development Conventions, tourism and the bohemian effect for young professionals
13. Multitude of Applications Field inspection Building code Fire code Health code City construction projection Neighborhood code Other School records access Attendance, grades, reports Telecommute and work at home Telemedicine for chronic illnesses T1 alternative for business connectivity Low-cost cell phone replacement Transportation related Traffic signals Parking meters Public safety Police reports Police video and photos Fire building plans Security surveillance Redundancy for wired networks during disaster Infrastructure maintenance Work order completion update Meter reading for utilities
14. Requirements
15. Implementation via WiMAX™ and WiFi Mesh 120 Base Stations 10,000 to 15,000 access nodes *Source: Civitium, LLC
16. Competitive Dynamics: Chinese Infrastructure Vendors Pushing Out Western Vendors Huawei Milestones Founded as distributor of imported PBX products in China Launches first internally developed product (switch) Wins 1st big overseas contract for fixed-line network in HK Overseas sales surpass domestic First mobile network deal in W. Europe Ranked #1 WW in NGN, mobile softswitch and IP DSLAM #2 in optical networks World's top patent seeker Overtakes ALU as #3 in mobile networks Passes NSN as #2 in mobile networks Nokia-Siemens merger Alcatel-Lucent merger NSN-Motorola merger 1988 1993 1996 2004 2006 2009 2010 Nokia Networks/NSN Within just 6 years, Huawei transformed the western telecom equipment market Are apps next? BSS/OSS, VAS and consumer app offerings already lined up
17. Nokia and Siemens: Battling via M&A Nokia-Siemens Merger Short term success in offsetting Huawei’s dominance at the top-line No success at the bottom-line
18. The Israeli Perspective:The Role of High-tech High-tech plays a central role in Israel’s economy The number of high-tech jobs has doubled since 1995 and stands at 9.3% of Israel’s workforce (2007 stats) compared to: Finland: ~7% Ireland and Switzerland: ~6% Germany, France and UK: ~5% Israel is the world’s 2nd largest high-tech zone after Silicon Valley and the #1 country in start-ups per capita Between 2004-2007, high-tech credited for 70% of overall industry growth In 2007, high-tech export accounted for 46% of Israel’s total industrial export
19. The Importance of Innovation vs. the Local Snapshot Meanwhile, a recent study shows: In the last few years, Israeli high-tech companies are investing less in research and innovation and more in international expansion Israel is losing its traditional advantage of extensive scientific / technological education The importance of innovation is rising At this rate, Israel’s high-tech industry will lose its innovation edge, its only true competitive advantage The macro environment, combined with local dynamics, increases the importance of innovation in Israeli high-tech as a competitive differentiator Global competition Increase in cost of local labor (vs. growing availability of low-cost labor elsewhere) Distance from target markets and cost of logistics Lack of governmental support, e.g. financing
20. The Impact of State Support(and the lack thereof) However, R&D budgets are declining, and there is a growing consensus that they are not sufficient A growing number of Israeli high-tech companies are opening offseas R&D centers ~10K jobs and growing: loss of knowledge and core competencies Weakening USD rate making local R&D uneconomical Lack of supportive infrastructure encourages short-term exits rather than long-term growth Many of the local high-tech employees work for international companies: good or bad for sustaining Israel’s innovation-led competitiveness? 10’s of thousands of jobs at Intel, HP, Motorola, IBM, Microsoft, TI, Google, Cisco, etc. What can be done to preserve and develop Israel’s unique high-tech environment? Potential win-win approach: gain support by leveraging other national trends and priorities; periphery, demographic sectors, women The dry facts show that Israel’s R&D allocation is sound Israel leads R&D budget as percentage of GDP: 4.5% vs. 3% in EU and 2.2% in the U.S This includes governmental, academic and private investment R&D personnel in Israel is 140 for every 10K residents vs. 85 in the U.S. Israel is 2nd only to the U.S. in scientific publications in areas critical to humanity’s future
21. Thank you