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County Population and Labor Force Projections: New Jersey, 2004 to 2014

County Population and Labor Force Projections: New Jersey, 2004 to 2014. NJSDC Network Meeting June 6, 2007. County Projections Procedures. Apply state fertility and mortality rates by age-race-sex to individual counties.

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County Population and Labor Force Projections: New Jersey, 2004 to 2014

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  1. County Population and Labor Force Projections: New Jersey, 2004 to 2014 NJSDC Network Meeting June 6, 2007

  2. County ProjectionsProcedures • Apply state fertility and mortality rates by age-race-sex to individual counties. • Project net migration based on demand and supply of county labor force. • Distribute county net total migration to individual age-race-sex cohorts according to recent pattern. • Control sum of 21 counties to state totals at each step.

  3. Population Projections for New JerseyOverview Rate of Population Growth: 1990-2014 2004-2014 2000-2004 1990-2000 2004-2014 2000-2004 1990-2000 • New Jersey’s 2004-2014 population growth will continue to lag behind the nation as a whole.

  4. County Population: 2004 and 2014 • Population is projected to increase in all counties, except Cape May, from 2004 to 2014.

  5. Population Growth by Region • The central and coastal regions will continue to lead the state’s population growth from 2004 to 2014. • The rate of population growth in the northern region is projected to lag behind average between 2004 and 2014.

  6. Annualized Population Growth Rate by Region

  7. Population Growth by Region • The rural northwestern counties will have substantial population growth from their small population bases. • Coastal region’s Ocean County is projected to be the fastest growing county in New Jersey, followed by Gloucester County in the southern region.

  8. Population Projections by county • Bergen County will continue to be the state’s most populous county. • By 2014, Middlesex will replace Essex as the state’s second most populous county; while Morris (ranked 10th in 2004) and Passaic(ranked 9th in 2004) will exchange their population rankings in the state. • Salem County will be the only county with less than 100,000 residents in New Jersey by 2014.

  9. Population Projections for New JerseyOverview • Hispanics and Other Races are projected to grow faster than their non-Hispanic and White and Black counterparts.

  10. Projections of County Population by Race • White’s share of the state’s population is projected to decline gradually. • Cape May County is projected to continue to have the highest proportion of whites in its population (93.3% in 2014). • Essex County will continue to have the lowest proportion of whites in its population (51.1% by 2014).

  11. Projections of County Population by Race • Essex County will continue to have the highest proportion of African Americans (41.9% by 2014). • Approximately one-half (51%) of the state’s black population will be residing in just fourcounties by 2014: Essex, Union, Camden and Hudson. • Sussex, Morris and Ocean counties will continue to have no more than 4% blacks among their resident population.

  12. Projections of County Population by Race • The “other races” population is projected to grow faster than their white and black counterparts in every county. • Middlesex and Bergen counties are projected to account for 40% of the state’s total “other races” population in 2014. More than one in every fiveMiddlesex County residents will be persons of “other races” by 2014.

  13. Projections of County Population by Race Proportion of “other races” Population in Selected Counties • However, the proportion of “other races” population will continue to remain low in southern rural counties and in the coastal “retirement” communities.

  14. Projections of County Population by Hispanic origin • Hudson and Passaic counties will continue to have the largest number and highest proportion of Hispanic population in the state. • Essex, Bergen, Union and Middlesex counties are also projected to have large number of Hispanics. • Together, these six counties will account for 68% of the state’s total Hispanics by 2014.

  15. Population Projections for New JerseyOverview New Jersey Population by Age: 2004 and 2014 • The “baby boom” generation (aged 50-68 in 2014) and their children (born between 1977 and 1994) will continue to be the largest age cohorts of the state’s population. Age 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 2004 (Population in thousands) 2014

  16. Projections of County Population by Age • Cape May County is projected to have the highest proportion (20.9%) of elderly population in the state by 2014, followed by Ocean County (19.3%). • Bergen, Ocean, Middlesex and Essex counties will continue to have the largest number of senior citizens (65 or older). However, these four counties’ share of the state’s total elderly population will decline somewhat from 38.7% in 2004 to 36.5% in 2014. • Hudson County (12.0%) will have the lowest proportion of seniors among the state’s 21 counties by 2014.

  17. Projections of County Population by Sex • Females will continue to outnumber males in every county except Cumberland. Sex Ratio (males per 100 females) in Selected Counties • The sex ratio ranges from Ocean County’s 91.1 to Cumberland County’s 104.4 in the year 2014.

  18. Labor Force Projections for New JerseyOverview • New Jersey’s civilian labor force is projected to grow faster than its population from 2004 to 2014. Growth of Population and Labor Force: New Jersey, 1980 - 2014

  19. Labor Force Projections by County • Labor force is projected to increase in every county from 2004 to 2014.

  20. Labor Force Projections by County • Labor Force in Ocean and Gloucester counties is projected to grow faster than other counties during the 2004-2014 period. • Parallel to the population growth pattern, the coastal region will continue to lead the state’s labor force growth while growth in the northern and southern regions is projected to accelerate.

  21. Annualized Labor Force Growth Rate by Region

  22. Labor Force Projections by Age • As “baby boomers” continue to age, the share of the state’s “older workers” (labor force 55 years or older) is projected to reach 21.4% by 2014, from 16.8% in 2004. • By 2014, the “older worker’s” share of the county labor force will range from 18.7% in Hudson County to 27.5% in Cape May County.

  23. Labor Force Projections by Sex • Women’s share of the state’s labor force is projected to increase gradually from 46.6% in 2004 to 47.2% in 2014. • The projected proportion of females in the labor force ranged from 45.4% in Morris County to 50.0% in Essex County as of 2014.

  24. County Labor Force Projections by Race • The nonwhite, especially the “other races” labor force, is projected to increase substantially faster than their white counterpart in all counties from 2004 to 2014. • Consequently, the shares of whites in the labor force will shrink in each county while nonwhites (esp. “other races”) are projected to increase their shares.

  25. County Labor Force Projections by Race Proportion of “other races” Labor Force in Selected Counties • The proportion of “Other Races” labor force varies by county. It ranges from 1.3% in Cape May County to 21.8% in Middlesex County by the year 2014.

  26. County Labor Force Projections by Hispanic origin • Hispanics will account for about two-thirds (66.2%) of the state’s labor force growth between 2004 and 2014. • Hispanic labor force is projected to grow faster than their non-Hispanic counterparts in all counties from 2004 to 2014.

  27. County Labor Force Projections by Hispanic origin • The proportion of Hispanics in the labor force ranged from 2.7% in Gloucester County to 40.9% in Hudson County as of 2004. The proportion in these two counties will increase to 3.6% and 43.5%, respectively, in 2014. • Approximately 70% of New Jersey’s Hispanic labor force were concentrated in six counties in 2004: Hudson, Passaic, Bergen, Union, Middlesex and Essex. These six counties will still have 67% of the state’s Hispanic labor force by 2014.

  28. THE END Comments Welcomed Contact: Sen-Yuan Wu @ 609-292-0077 (phone) sywu@dol.state.nj.us (e-mail) www.nj.gov/labor/lra(URL)

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