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UKCP 09 a nd the West Midlands region

UKCP 09 a nd the West Midlands region. West Midlands Regional Climate Change Adaptation Partnership, 8th July 2009 Chris Thomas, UK Climate Impacts Programme. UKCP09 and the West Midlands. Outline Introduction to the new projections What do they tell us? What are the impacts?

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UKCP 09 a nd the West Midlands region

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  1. UKCP09 and the West Midlands region West Midlands Regional Climate Change Adaptation Partnership, 8th July 2009 Chris Thomas, UK Climate Impacts Programme

  2. UKCP09 and the West Midlands Outline • Introduction to the new projections • What do they tell us? • What are the impacts? • How do we respond?

  3. Introduction to the new projections So... What’s new? • Improved modelling – now includes carbon cycle feedback and takes uncertainties (both parameters and modelling) into account • Probabilistic data – considered more robust to work with a range of possible outcomes, rather than a single number • Much more data – more spatial and temporal detail • Improved accessibility and delivery – User Interface – customised outputs to explore your choice of variables. Also user guidance available, training programme

  4. Dealing with uncertainty

  5. Probabilisticdata Strength of evidence (Probability) ? VERY UNLIKELY LIKELY VERY UNLIKELY Climate variable

  6. Much more data Spatial and temporal • 25km grid • Predefined areas • Administrative • River basins • More time periods – overlapping

  7. Improved accessibility and delivery Customisable output 2080s Mean summer temperatures, medium emissions, 50% probability level 2080s Hottest daily temperature, High emissions, 90% percentile

  8. UKCP09 layered approach Communicators Decision Makers Researcher / Scientist

  9. What do they tell us? Broad differences compared with UKCIP02 (UK wide) • Projected changes in mean temperature are generally somewhat greater than UKCIP02 • Summer reduction in rainfall is not as great as UKCIP02 • Increases in winter rainfall broadly similar to UKCIP02, but with a different geographical pattern • A few grid squares are projected to be drier in UKCP09 – in UKCIP02, all areas were projected to be wetter

  10. Summer average temperature in the West Midlands: significant increases over the decades to the 2080s Increased Tourism Increased Heat stress Infrastructure risks Risks to biodiversity Heat related deaths Risk to Food Security But the temperature on the hottest day of the year could increase by up to 10ºC West Midlands central estimate Medium emissions The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be less than 2ºC and very unlikely to be more than 6.1ºC DEFRA, 2009

  11. Summer rainfall in the West Midlands: significant summer decreases Reduced stream flow and water quality Increased drought Subsidence Decreased crop yields Serious water stress West Midlands central estimate Medium emissions For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than -43% and very unlikely to be higher than +6% DEFRA, 2009

  12. Winter rainfall in the West Midlands: significant increases Increased winter flooding Increased subsidence Risks to urban drainage Severe Transport disruption Risks of national Infrastructure But rainfall on the wettest day of the year could increase by up to 30% West Midlands central estimate Medium Emissions For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than +3% and very unlikely to be higher than +39% DEFRA, 2009

  13. What are the impacts? Or... Where will the impacts be felt? • West Midlands landscape: conurbation and countryside • Built up urban areas, high density housing • Social and economic impacts – health impacts • 70% agriculture • Impact of changing climate on crops – opportunities? • Landscape and biodiversity • Nationally important, but also fragmented habitats • Transport infrastructure – regional and national links • Explore vulnerability to current weather: road and rail • Population density – water quality and availability

  14. How do we respond? Decisions, decisions... • Planning to adapt – what kind of decisions do we need to make? • What the climate and weather will be doing • The sensitivity of the system to climate and weather variables • Our own attitude to risk • Using UKCP09 is going to be more challenging than applying information from UKCIP02 , especially at the more detailed levels • BUT it will be worth it – probabilistic information allows more robust decision making, as we can be more aware of the range of possibilities and can decide what level of risk we are prepared to take

  15. Exploring UKCP09 Online support and Training • Online support • Dedicated website – start with http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk • User Guidance • User Interface manual • Help Desk – FAQs – use and contribute! • Training • Projections in Practice (PiP). Go to www.ukcip.org.uk to register your interest in regional training events (Autumn 09) • eLearning • Communities of practice • Webinars, podcasts • Online resources to develop skills

  16. Thank you http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk enquiries@ukcip.org.uk

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