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Iran , the Persian Gulf and American Security

Iran , the Persian Gulf and American Security. WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT IRAN?. http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/images/maps/Persian_Gulf_lg.jpg

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Iran , the Persian Gulf and American Security

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  1. Iran, the Persian Gulf and American Security

  2. WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT IRAN?

  3. http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/images/maps/Persian_Gulf_lg.jpg • CFR Iran brief-   http://www.cfr.org/interactives/CG_Iran/index.htmlState supporters of terrrorism - http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2011/195547.htmStatute toppling -  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YDu7bXqx8Ig

  4. OIL • The Persian Gulf produced 28% of the world’s oil supply and the countries in the region hold 55% of the world’s crude oil reserves. • One fifth of the world oil supply transits the Straight of Hormuz, which is 600 miles long, as narrow as 34 miles and has a 2 mile wide channel. • http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/images/maps/Persian_Gulf_lg.jpg

  5. WHY DO WE CARE? • Support for terrorist groups • Hezbollah - • Hamas State Sponsors of Terrorism In order to designate a country as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, the Secretary of State must determine that the government of such country has repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism.

  6. State Sponsors of Terrorism • In order to designate a country as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, the Secretary of State must determine that the government of such country has repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism. • Cuba, Iran, Sudan and Syria • In the recent past – Libya and Iraq • Who might be added? Removed?

  7. The 5th Amendment vs. Drone Strikes • --No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, .. • --The confidential memo lays out a three-part test that would make targeted killings of American lawful:  The suspect poses an imminent threat, capture must be “infeasible, and the strike must be conducted according to “law of war principles.”

  8. WHY DO WE CARE? • Regional Stability • Afghanistan • Iraq • Syria Not to mention all the countries with a Sunni majority like Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states

  9. WHY DO WE REALLY CARE? • It has a nuclear program • But what does that mean? • It has signed the NPT-obligations and rights. • Capability vs. intent.

  10. WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS AND THE COSTS OF THOSE OPTIONS? According to the FAS study: • Increasing pressure - $64 billion • Isolation and a blockade - $325 billion • Surgical strikes - $713 billion • Comp. bombing campaign - $1.2 trillion • Full scale invasion - $1.7 trillion • De-escalation – benefit of $60 billion

  11. Weighing the Benefits and Costs of Military Action Against Iran • Extended military strikes would set back the program up to 4 years. • Regime change would require occupation and a cost equal to Iraq and Afghanistan • Israel could probably not do it alone

  12. The benefits of military action • Damage Iran’s enrichment facilities • Damage Iran’s military capabilities • Demonstrate US seriousness and credibility • Help to deter nuclear weapons proliferation

  13. Potential costs • Direct Iranian retaliation against the U.S. • Iranian strikes against Israel • Indirect retaliation • Breakdown of global solidarity against Iran • Increased likelihood of Iran becoming a nuclear state • Global political and economic instability • Damage to the US global reputation • Unify Iranians behind their government

  14. Time to Attack Iran? • Iran operatives were planning to assassinate Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the US. • Sanctions are not working and Iranian nuclear development continues, but an attack could convince them to give up their program. • The U.S. will have to keep forces in the region for years to come to contain Iran. • Civilian casualties come be limited. • The US could reassure the Iranian government its intention was not regime change. • The US could draw red lines to prevent Iranian retaliation • The US should conduct a surgical strike, absorb any retaliation and then seek quickly to de-escalate.

  15. IF WE ATTACK-- • Who is going to join us? • Will it be legal? • What will the rest of the world think? • What are the unknown unknowns? • Who is pushing for an attack?

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