Adaptation Responses and Vulnerability to Climate Change

1. Adaptation Responses and Vulnerability to Climate Change Barry Smit Professor, University of Guelph, Canada Co-CLA, IPCC, TAR, WG2, Ch.18 For IPCC Session, COP-6 (pt 2), Bonn, July 17, 2001

2. Adaptation to Climate Change Adjustments in ecological, social or economic systems in response to actual or expected climate change stimuli, their effects or impacts • to reduce vulnerability • to moderate damages • to realize opportunities

3. Adaptation in UNFCCC, Kyoto UNFCCC, Art. 2 Dangerous depends on ability of ecosystems, food production and economic development to adapt UNFCCC, Art. 4.1 …facilitate adequate adaptation… …co-operate in preparing for adaptation... UNFCCC, Art. 4.4, 4.8 …assist developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation... Kyoto, Art. 10 Formulate, implement…measures to facilitate adequate adaptation...

4. CLIMATE CHANGE incl. Variability Human Interference Initial Impacts Effects MITIGATION of Climate Change via GHG sources and sinks Expected Adaptations IMPACTS VULNERABILITIES Residual or Net Impacts Planned ADAPTATION to the Impacts and Vulnerabilities dangerous? vulnerable? Policy Responses

5. Climate Change Extremes and Coping Range Current Climate Changed Climate Climatic Attribute (X) Time (years) Coping Range

6. Current Climate Changed Climate Probability of high extremes Frequency / Probability of Occurrence (e.g. years) Coping Range Coping Range   X Xcc Values of Climatic Attribute (X)

7. Vulnerability to Climate Change depends upon • Exposure to Climate Change Risks • and • Adaptive Capacity to Cope with Risks

8. Types of Adaptation Anticipatory Reactive • changes in ecosystem • composition, location • wetland migration Natural Systems Human Systems • crop diversification • purchase insurance • house designs • crop development • borrow, change activity • reconstruction, • relocation Public Private • early-warning • building codes • infrastructure • disaster relief • relocation incentives

9. Main Findings re Adaptation 1. Adaptation can reduce adverse impacts 2. Communities will adapt autonomously, but not without costs 3. The key features of climate change are variabilities and extremes 4. Planned adaptation measures usually have immediate benefits 5. Adaptations are likely to be implemented only if they are integrated with existing management and development processes

10. Main Findings re Adaptive Capacity 6. Adaptive capacity varies considerably among countries and socio-economic groups 7. Development activities modify adaptive capacity, yet they tend to omit climate change risks 8. Enhancement of adaptive capacity is necessary to reduce vulnerability, especially for the most vulnerable 9. Current knowledge of adaptation and adaptive capacity is insufficient

12. Research Needs for Adaptation Policy • Adaptation Processes • decision making • conditions that stimulate or constrain • role of non-climate factors • Evaluation of Adaptation Options • not only economic criteria • include roles of stakeholders • Focus on Adaptive Capacity • to reduce vulnerabilities • relate to existing management processes • incorporate in development initiatives