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Mattia Vaccari - University of Padova Alberto Franceschini & Giulia Rodighiero

A FIR & Sub-mm View on Galaxy Formation & Evolution Taking Stock of Spitzer & SCUBA Planning for Herschel & SCUBA2. Mattia Vaccari - University of Padova Alberto Franceschini & Giulia Rodighiero Thanks also to Carol, Dave, Jim, Matt, Michael, Seb & all the

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Mattia Vaccari - University of Padova Alberto Franceschini & Giulia Rodighiero

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  1. A FIR & Sub-mm View onGalaxy Formation & EvolutionTaking Stock of Spitzer & SCUBAPlanning for Herschel & SCUBA2 Mattia Vaccari - University of Padova Alberto Franceschini & Giulia Rodighiero Thanks also to Carol, Dave, Jim, Matt, Michael, Seb & all the ISOCAM, ELAIS, SHADES, SWIRE, SPIRE & SCUBA2 folks A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  2. Hi there!;-) Mattia Vaccari • Italian, PostDoc in Padova since Sep 05 & previously • MSc in Physics (00) & PhD in Space Science & Technology (03) @ University of Padova • PostDoc @ Imperial College London (03-05) • Long- Extragalactic Surveys and Space Astronomy • ISO Satellite : Post-Mission ISO-CAM/PHOT Software Development, ELAIS and HDF-N/S Data Reduction • Spitzer Satellite : SWIRE Consortium • SCUBA@JCMT : SHADES Consortium • SCUBA2@JCMT : Legacy Surveys Consortia • SPIRE@Herschel : Observation Planning, Pipeline Management + low-and-high-z GT Science • Number Counts, Clustering and Extragalactic Population Studies from ISO, Spitzer & SCUBA Surveys • Simulations of Instrumental & Science Performance of Future Space Missions : Herschel, JWST, SPICA & FIRI A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  3. The Cosmic IR Background RadiationResolved Into Sources The integrated extragalactic background light in the far-infrared and sub-millimeter region of the spectrum is approximately equal to the integrated background light in the optical and UV part of the spectrum. To develop a complete understanding of galaxy formation, this background light must be resolved into galaxies and their properties must be characterized. A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  4. Modeling the FIR & Sub-mm Era • Long-wavelength observational astronomy is arguably experiencing its “golden era”, with new facilities (telescopes & instruments) coming on-line in an ever accelerating fashion • The sources making up the very bright and violently evolving universe discovered by IRAS first and the CIRB light later detected by COBE are being (and will increasingly be) detected and characterized at a pace largely reminiscent of optical astronomy • The paradigms of semi-analytical models will need time to properly adjust to and make sense of new results • Simpler and more flexible phenomenological models can be of great help in providing the first clues about the nature of such sources as well as in timely planning development and use of new facilities A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  5. The AF08 Model • The AF01 phenomenological model (Franceschini et al. 2001) was rather successful in explaining & “exploring” ISO results • Spitzer & SCUBA data (re)-analyses, however, called for a revamp • Through a simple backward evolution approach, AF08 describes available observables (number counts, z-distributions, L-functions, integrated CIRB levels…) in terms of number and luminosity evolution of four populations • slowly or non-evolving disk galaxies [blue dotted lines] • type-1 AGNs evolving as shown by UV and X-ray selected Quasars & Seyferts [green long-short-dashed lines] • moderate-luminosity starbursts with peak emission at z ~ 1 [cyan dot-dashed lines] • ultra-luminous starbursts with peak evolution between z = 2 and z = 4 [red long-dashed lines] A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  6. Modeling Benchmarks • Spitzer MIPS & SCUBA Number Counts largely available • Spitzer MIPS Deep & Narrow : GOODS & GTO & GO • Spitzer MIPS Wide & Shallow : SWIRE & GTO & GO • SCUBA Deep : Lensing Surveys • SCUBA Wide : SHADES • Spec & Phot Redshift Distributions in the works • Complete Redshift Distributions of 24 (& 70) m sources • Redshift Distributions of SCUBA sources & related headaches • Ultimate Spitzer Luminosity Functions within reach • Extras : AzTEC@JCMT & BLAST surveys being reduced A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  7. Spitzer MIPS Counts : 24 m SWIRE (Shupe in prep) GTO (Chary 04) but also (not shown) GTO (Papovich 04) FLS (Fadda 06) Remarkable agreement! Most stringent constraint provided by Spitzer to date A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  8. Spitzer MIPS-Ge Counts : 70 & 160 m SWIRE (Vaccari in prep) FLS (Frayer 2006a) SWIRE (Vaccari in prep) FLS (Frayer 2006a) GTO & GO (Frayer 2006b) Reasonable agreement but comparison is hampered by poor areal coverage and sensitivity at 70 and 160 m respectively A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  9. SCUBA 850 m Counts SHADES (Coppin 2006) SHADES (Coppin 2006) SCUBA Misc (Scott 2006) SCUBA Lensing (Knudsen 2008) Without ad hoc adjustments we seem to overpredict bright counts by some amount and perhaps more importantly miss the exact locus of their downturn A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  10. First Hints At Herschel Counts450 m SCUBA Counts Smail et al. 2002 A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  11. First Hints At Herschel Counts350 m CSO Counts Khan et al. 2007 Fainter data point from CSO Brighter data points from rescaling of Smail et al. 2002 A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  12. Redshift Distribution of 24 m Sources Overdensities Confirmed Successful Modeling No Ad Hoc Adjustments A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  13. Z=0-2 24 m Luminosity Functions GOODS-S + GOODS-N + SWIRE-VVDS Fields (Rodighiero in prep) ~ 2000 sources with some of the best spec info available The determination of redshift-dependent Luminosity Functions require large corrections which depend to a large extent on the adopted SED templates, and particularly so for IR Bolometric (8-1000 m) Luminosity Functions A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  14. Redshift Distribution of SCUBASources Not so bad… A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  15. What is Herschel? First Space Observatory at  >~ 100 μm Will perform Photometry and Spectroscopy in the FIR and sub-mm region (60-670 μm) 3.5 m Diameter Telescope, ~80K two cameras/medium resolution spectrometers (PACS & SPIRE) + very high resolution heterodyne spectrometer (HIFI) To be launched in late 2008, minimum 3 years lifetime A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  16. The Cosmic FIR Background RadiationResolved Into Sources The integrated extragalactic background light in the far-infrared and sub-millimeter region of the spectrum is approximately equal to the integrated background light in the optical and UV part of the spectrum. To develop a complete understanding of galaxy formation, this background light must be resolved into galaxies and their properties must be characterized. A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  17. Constraining Bolometric Luminosity Rest-frame emission from sources @ z=1 in Herschel bands vs model spectra Herschel bands will be crucial in constraining the bolometric luminosity of galaxies. This will help untangle the contribution of AGN and star-formation cool/warm dust and thus constrain the star-formation history. A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  18. Multi-band P(D) analysis WeddingCake Survey Lensing, SZ SEDs of Galaxies Contributing to the CIRB Structure Formation; clustering on angular scales < 10 arcmin A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  19. Herschel EG GT Survey Wedding Cakehttp://astronomy.sussex.ac.uk/~sjo/Hermes/FieldsFinal.pdf Time : PACS (659)SPIRE (850) Harwit (10)(Spitzer Depths) A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  20. Star Formation Rate Main Science Driver : Measure hidden (by dust) energy production in the Universe Set of blank field Imaging Surveys (“Wedding Cake”), covering a range of field sizes and depths Need to measure the bolometric dust emission and sample a large area in the Lbol - z plane the Wedding Cake Survey Designed to sample the L-z plane and probe Lbol density at high redshift OT Herschel proposals will push the study to even higher z A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  21. Comparisons with other Models Aim : Take stock of models on the market to minimize uncertainties Occasion : Seb’s SPIRE High-z Modeling Challenge of July 06 • In the pipeline already • Franceschini et al. 2008 • Elbaz et al. 2008 • Xu et al. 2008 • Lagache et al. 2004 • Guiderdoni et al. 1997 (A) • Guiderdoni et al. 1997 (E) • Coming along • Rowan-Robinson 2008 • Malkan 2008 • Pearson 2008 Interested? Then drop me a line at mattia@mattiavaccari.net A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  22. Comparisons With Other Models Differences of up to an order of magnitude near the peak A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  23. Comparisons With Other Models Differences of up to an order of magnitude near the peak A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  24. Extragalactic Confusion • Two methods are routinely used to evaluate EG confusion • The “Fluctuations” approach measures rms background fluctuations due to unresolved sources and sets confusion at q (e.g. q=3,4,5) times that level • The “Counts” approach measures source counts and sets confusion where a maximum number of sources per beam (or rather a minimum number of beams per source, e.g. bps=10,30,50) is reached • Values provided by the two mostly depend on what’s happening • fainter than the confusion limit (Fluctuations) • brighter than the confusion limit (Counts) • Roughly speaking, the level of agreement between the two approaches depend on the slope of the counts ~ AT the confusion limit A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  25. “Fluctuations” Criterion A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  26. “Counts” Criterion Red lines refer to 10 bps levels A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  27. Extragalactic Confusion Due to the different slope in counts, the  vs bps is not a one-to-one relation,  values being generally & consistently worse than bps ones for SPIRE with respect to PACS A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  28. A Pre-Launch Consensus Viewon Herschel EG Confusion Limits A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  29. A Pre-Launch Consensus Viewon Herschel EG Confusion Limits MEAN +- RMS of various models4  values above are arguablybest pre-launch indication( modulo BLAST results ) A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  30. Simulations : Spitzer 2 Herschel( keeping an eye on SCUBA(2) ) • 24 m • 110 m • 350 m • 450 m • 850 m A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  31. What Herschel OT Key ProjectSurveys can we expect (or aim for)? Rich opportunities exist to extend GT KP mid- & large-area planned surveys (~ 1 deg^2 or larger) to deeper levels & wider areas 3 s ~ 10 bps 20 bps Opp. Area 10 bps Opp. Area 3  ~ 20 bps An Herschel Survey of Surveys (SOS) www.mattiavaccari.net/herschel/sos NB : NOT including last-minute changes to GT but still largely valid… A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  32. Near-Future Prospects • Herschel will be launched ~ 1 yr from now • A new decade in  becomes available ==> Discovery Space • Bolometric Emission of Galaxies making up the CIRB • Lots of things are already covered in GT e OT KPs BUT • OT proposals are due in mid-2008 • PS : non-extragalactic astronomers are also encouraged to keep their eyes on http://herschel.esac.esa.int & TBD A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  33. Herschel AO Schedule (Late 2008 Launch) • Overall (3-yr Baseline Mission) Observing Time Breakdown : ~ 1000 days ~ 20000 hrs GT = 32% & OT = 68% GT = 30% each to 3 PIs, 7% to HSC, 3% divided between 5 Mission Scientists • Commissioning, Performance Verification & Science Demonstration L - L+6m • Routine Science Operations L+6m - L+42 m • GT & OT Key Projects AO Issue 01 Feb 2007 • GT Key Projects Proposal Deadline 05 Apr 2007 (~ 5000 hr) • GT Key Projects Results Announcement 05 Jul 2007 • OT Key Projects Proposal Deadline 25 Oct 2007 (~ 5500 hr) • OT Key Projects Results Announcement 28 Feb 2008 • GT Cycle 1 Projects AO Issue 28 Feb 2008 • GT Cycle 1 Projects Proposal Deadline 03 Apr 2008 (~ 1000 hr) • GT Cycle 1 Projects Results Announcement 05 Jun 2008 • OT Cycle 1 Projects Deadline Late 2008 (~ 5000 hr) • GT & OT Cycle 2 Projects Deadline Late 2009 (~ 500 hr + 3000 hr) • Extra Time (0.5 yr “expected” extended mission) Later (~ 3000 hr) A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  34. What might be in it for you? • A handy modeling code & simulation tool generating • source counts • redshift & luminosity distributions • mock catalogues at a complete set of relevant FIR & sub-mm wavelengths • A companion tool to estimate confusion limits based on the model above as well as on competing models • A set of simulated surveys reproducing lots of completed & planned surveys by ISO, Spitzer, Herschel, Planck, Akari, SCUBA2 (and soon SPICA & FIRI?), e.g. the Herschel GT Wedding Cake and the SCUBA2 Legacy Surveys • Hopefully sometime soon publicly available through the www A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  35. A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  36. FIR & Sub-mm Surveys come of ageThe Multi- XID Problem • The tens/hundreds of sources which will be detected by Herschel (and SCUBA2, the LMT, the CCAT, the envisaged Antarctic Submillimeter Observatory…) will pose a challenge of new proportions when it comes to identifying them and make sense of their SEDs • Large areas (tens of sq deg) • Imaging in several FIR/sub-mm bands, with different resolutions and sensitivities and sources often individually detected only in some bands. • Inhomogeneous ancillary data • Stacking and positional priors on lower-resolution images will become increasingly important techniques, together with maximum-likelihood identification methods based on average properties of large samples • Pioneering efforts at identifying SCUBA sources through radio imaging by Blain, Chapman, Ivison & friends could only be reproduced over relatively small areas, even with EVLA, but it’ll be interesting to see what can take its place for the larger areas • Shallow Spitzer MIPS 24 micron imaging seems e.g. to be only slightly worse than extant VLA radio data for this purpose (see e.g. Ivison et al 2007 and Clements, Vaccari et al. in prep for SCUBA sources in SHADES/SXDF), but introduces further selection effects and won’t be available in the near future (and to a limited extent with JWST) A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  37. Confusion at MIR-to-Sub-mm s HERMES 70 2 SCLS 20/50 2 SWIRE 50 2 ? LMT ? A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

  38. Thanks! “Don't clap too loudly - it's a very old world” Tom Stoppard, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead Mattia Vaccari mattia@mattiavaccari.net www.mattiavaccari.net A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

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