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Improving the climate resilience of Tajikistan’s hydropower sector

Improving the climate resilience of Tajikistan’s hydropower sector. Rob Wilby Loughborough University Michael Friedhoff SKM Richenda Connel & Ben Rabb Acclimatise Nasridin Minikulov, Anvar Homidov, Muzaffar Shodmanov Tajik Hydromet Nadezhda Leonidova Loiha-Gidroenergo.

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Improving the climate resilience of Tajikistan’s hydropower sector

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  1. Improving the climate resilience of Tajikistan’s hydropower sector Rob Wilby Loughborough University Michael Friedhoff SKM Richenda Connel & Ben Rabb Acclimatise Nasridin Minikulov, Anvar Homidov, Muzaffar Shodmanov Tajik Hydromet Nadezhda Leonidova Loiha-Gidroenergo Kairakkum power station and spillway, downstream view PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  2. Overall objectives of PPCR Phase I (A4) Two main objectives: #1. Analyze the climate vulnerability of Tajikistan’s hydropower sector; #2. Recommend ways in which the analysis can inform investment planning, including use of Phase II PPCR resources to support specific adaptation activities leading to a more climate-resilient hydropower sector. Kairakkum reservoir 2012 PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  3. Orientation – Kairakkum PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  4. Orientation – Nurek PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  5. Main tasks of PPCR Phase I (A4) Six activities: #1. Assemble and analyze historic hydro-climate trends #2. Produce a synthesis of regional climate scenarios #3. Develop hydrological models to evaluate impacts #4. Review climate alongside other natural hazards #5. Evaluate potential scenarios for hydropower #6. Identify options to build resilience to climate change PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  6. Analytical framework Climate change scenarios Hydrological models REG WBM SRM Upstream river regulation Hazards analysis Monthly/annual evaporation Monthly/annual flow factors Sedimentation data Reservoir safety Reservoir water balance Operating rule scenario Energy production model Refurbishment and upgrade scenarios PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  7. Activity #1 – Data assembly and trend analysis PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  8. Example data sources PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  9. Local hydro-climatic trends Observed trends in annual mean temperature [T], precipitation [P] and discharge [Q] for Kairakkum (top row) and Nurek (lower row) relative to the 1961-1990 mean. The red dashed line for Khujand shows a hindcast of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) area-average precipitation for the upper Syr Darya basin. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  10. Snow cover Snow-cover duration curves (CDCs) for the upper Vakhsh basin in 2010 PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  11. Activity #2 – Climate change scenarios Temperature and precipitation changes over Asia from the MMD-A1B simulations. Source: Christensen et al. (2007). PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  12. Regional climate scenarios PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  13. Climate change marker scenarios PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  14. Evaporation scenarios Cumulative likelihood distributions of annual PE increases (% change with respect to the 1961-1990 baseline) projected by ensembles of PE estimation method, emission scenario, and GCM output (for the closest grid-points to the Kairakkum reservoir). PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  15. Climate model uncertainty and downscaling Changes in a mean annual temperature and precipitation for Khujand under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the 2080s PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  16. Downscaling applications Observed (black) and downscaled (red) annual mean temperatures at Khujand Observed (black) and downscaled (grey) mean daily temperatures at Lyahsh in 1993 PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  17. Activity #3 – Hydrological modelling PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  18. Data for hydrological modelling and sensitivity analysis PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  19. Evaporation modelling Estimated PE for 1961-1990 based the Thornthwaite, Blaney-Criddle and Hamon methods and observed temperatures. PE estimates from the mass balance of the Kairakkum reservoir are also shown PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  20. 1. Regression model Observed (grey line) and REG modeled (black lines) annual discharge at Aqjar for 1955-2010. The plot also shows projected discharge for the 2050s under the three climate change scenarios (colored lines) PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  21. 2. Water balance model Q = (A.P.k) + (G.ΔT) – (A.E) ± S ± D Syr Darya to Aqjar Q is the discharge (km3), A is the basin area (km2), P is the annual precipitation (km), k is a scaling factor, G is the total snow and glacier melt per year ΔT degree temperature change (km3/yr/°C), E is the annual evaporation total (km), S is upstream storage change (km3), D is diversions for irrigation or effluent (km3). Vakhsh to Darband PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  22. 3. Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) Qn+1 = [CSn · αn (Tn + ΔTn) Sn + CR · Pn] A · v (1 – kn-1) + [Qn · rn+1] Daily mean composite of observed and SRM discharges at Darband 2001-2010 PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  23. Activity #4 – Natural hazards analysis Source: Information Management and Analytical Center (IMAC) of Tajikistan. Recorded events near Kairakkum 1992-1998. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  24. Natural Hazards 1992-1998 Occurrence of natural hazards in the IMAC data base 1992-1998 (as percentages of their respective total frequencies). PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  25. Potential for (some) hazard forecasting Locations of mudflows and reported flooding 5 to 11 May 2011 compared with TRMM rainfall PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  26. Activity #5 – Hydropower scenarios Kairakkum dam and power station - general arrangement PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  27. Changing bathymetry Storage curves generated from bathymetric survey data were obtained for 1965, 1975 and 2009. Additionally the original storage curve for 1957 is available. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  28. Runoff scenarios – Naryn upstream of Toktogul Calibration based on 7 snow cover images Observed and SRM estimates of daily discharge under present and changed climate scenarios (hot-dry, central, and warm wet) for the 2050s. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  29. Runoff scenarios – Naryn upstream of Toktogul Calibration based on 15 snow cover images Observed and SRM estimates of daily discharge under present and changed climate scenarios (hot-dry, central, and warm wet) for the 2050s. PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  30. Summary of runoff scenarios * Parameters in SRM advanced by 15 days per °C of warming; ** Fixed parameters used in SRM (see Annex 1 for further details). PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  31. Regulated inflow regime Syr Darya - Average monthly discharge (m3/s) at Akjar PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  32. Operating rules Average Kairakkum reservoir level (m) at the beginning of each month PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  33. Monthly energy production - calibrated Actual and modelled monthly energy production at Kairakkum assuming 88% of rated efficiency PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  34. Scenarios of firm energy production PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  35. Adaptation options (Kairakkum) • a) Operational changes • Use 0.85 m of the flood surcharge volume as live storage (assumes flood peaks are attenuated by Toktogul and Andijan) • Change operating rules to maximize head and minimize spill • b) Structural/physical changes • Increase power station capacity to 147 MW by uprating generators and control system • c) Combined approach • Increase full supply level by 0.5 m and increase power station capacity by 147 MW • d) Other measures • Heighten the dam • Integrated management and coordination of upstream dams • Install additional generating unit PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  36. Outcome of adaptation options – wetter future Annual energy under the REG-Central (+21% flow) scenario for different strategies PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  37. #6 Recommendations for building resilience PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  38. 1) Further analytical work and monitoring Strengthen the hydrometric network Lengthen the period for snow cover measurement Use measured spill and turbine discharge data to improve water balance model Digitize and quality-assure remaining paper-based hydrometeorological records Establish robust protocols for flood safety assessment under changing conditions Examine geo-referenced hazards data for climate signals Assess the feasibility of seasonal forecasting for reservoir operation PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  39. 2) Training and collaboration Strengthen national capabilities in climate risk assessment through partnership working and exchanges Strengthen data management and record keeping Build collaborative links with international partners in research, engineering and academia Submit PPCR research to international journals for scientific peer review Run technical workshops on climate diagnostics, climate risk assessment, and seasonal forecasting PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

  40. 3) Investments in hydropower facilities Kairakkum power station options (a) Use some flood surcharge volume as live storage (b) Change operating rules to maximize head and minimize spill (c) Increase power station capacity during planned rehabilitation (d) Combined approach (e) Manage sediment loads Vakhsh cascade options (no data) (a) Construction of the Rogun dam with associated operating rule changes for Nurek (b) Increase Nurek power station capacity (c) Contingency measures for credible warnings of rainfall-triggered landslides PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector 6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

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