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Deconstructing Peak Oil: Assumptions and Future Scenarios

Explore the debate around peak oil, uncovering key assumptions shaping the discourse. Discover the impact of technology, new discoveries, and environmental factors on global oil supply and consumption dynamics.

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Deconstructing Peak Oil: Assumptions and Future Scenarios

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  1. www.leadingreservoirs.com Deconstructing Peak Oil How Assumptions Shape the Debate Dr. Nansen G. Saleri Chief Executive Officer and PresidentQuantum Reservoir Impact, LLCApril 30, 2008 – Rice University

  2. Questions • Are We Really Running Out of Oil? • Peak Oil Timing? • What Happens after Peak Oil? • What are the Assumptions? • The Technology Factor?

  3. Hubbert vs. Actual

  4. Global Liquids Supply Source: Hard Truths: Facing the Hard Truths about Energy National Petroleum Council (2007)

  5. Global Liquids Supply Source: Hard Truths: Facing the Hard Truths about Energy National Petroleum Council (2007)

  6. Global Oil Resources

  7. Onset – Key Variables • RIP • Recovery Efficiency • New Discoveries • Disruptive Technologies • Rate of Consumption • Competition from Alternative Energies • Unforecasted Events • State of Depletion at Decline Onset • Environmental Factors • Prices

  8. Boils down to… • RIP • RE/Reserves Appreciation • State of Depletion @ POP • Global Consumption • Symmetric vs. Asymmetric Decline Beyond Peak

  9. Peak Oil Range Peak Oil Range

  10. Current Assumptions

  11. Peak Oil Range Peak Oil Range

  12. Looking Ahead Growing Challenges Booming Opportunities • Resource Nationalism • Manpower Constraints • Global Warming • Social/Political • Alternative Energy • Technology • Increasing Mobility of IP & Capital • Emergence of New Business Models • Bolder Expectations in Recovery & Sustainability • Increasing Profitability

  13. Changing Landscape Source: Parker Drilling Company (Business Week; Rice University)RMI Oil Field Breakfast Forum (2008)

  14. The Changing Playing Field The Current Paradigm IOC NOC ISP

  15. The Changing Playing Field Growing Hybridization and Increasing Mobility of IP, Capital, & Manpower Niche Techies IOC ISP IOC & NOC Mutant Entities Mutant Entities NOC IOC – International Oil Company NOC – National Oil Company ISP – International Service Provider Niche Technology Companies Mutant Entities – New Business Paradigms

  16. The New Sub-Surface • Smarter Wells • Real-time • Higher Recoveries

  17. Re-Invigorating Old Fields Oil water

  18. Haradh = 900MBD AL Fazran • Q2 / 1996 ‘Ain Dar Shedgum • Ver. Wells ‘Uthmaniyah • Q2 / 2003 • Hor. Wells Hawiyah • Q1 / 2006 Haradh I Haradh II • MRC Wells Haradh III • Smart Com. • I-Field

  19. Pressure Injection Benefits of Real-Time HRDH-1500 & HRDH-1711 36 200 Injection Rate (MBD) 18 100 Pressure Increase (psi) 0 0 0 90 180 Days of Injection Datum P (psia) High Low

  20. 10000 B/D Sustainable Well Rate 10 4000 B/D 6 2000 B/D 3 Increment-1 Vertical 1996 Increment-2 Horizontal 2003 Increment-3 MRC/Smart 2006 Benefits “Sustainable” Oil Rate (Thousands B/D)

  21. Conclusion • Global Peak: Broad Range of Possibilities • Likely Scenario Beyond 2040 • Technology Key Differentiator • New Era in Upstream • Short-term Challenges • Higher Expectations • Different Rules of Engagement • Increasing Mobility of IP, Capital, • and Manpower

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