Economic outlook: is this the new normal?

1. WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • LOW GROWTH AND HIGH RISK: FOR HOW LONG? • ICTF, Berlin, October 2015 • Freddy Van den Spiegel • Economic advisor • Professor VUB and Vlerick Business School Economic outlook: is this the new normal? • Freddy Van den SpiegelEconomic Advisor.

2. The view of IMF

3. The crisis, started in 2007 2007: complex financial (mortgage) products start to collapse as the US housing market cools down. Investors get worried about the banking sector

4. Groupe BNP ParibasBNP Paribas Group

5. EUROSTOXX FINANCIALS

6. The crisis, starting in 2007 2007: complex financial (mortgage) products start to collapse as the US housing market cools down. Investors get worried about the banking sector 2008: The banking crisis starts in October with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers

7. EUROSTOXX FINANCIALS

8. Groupe BNP ParibasBNP Paribas Group

9. Groupe BNP ParibasBNP Paribas Group

10. The crisis, starting in 2007 2007: complex financial (mortgage) products start to collapse as the US housing market cools down. Investors get worried about the banking sector 2008: The banking crisis starts in October with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers 2009: Worldwide recession and housing crashes in Europe

11. WORLD GDP GROWTH

13. The crisis, starting in 2007 2007: complex financial (mortgage) products start to collapse as the US housing market cools down. Investors get worried about the banking sector 2008: The banking crisis starts in October with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers 2009: Worldwide recession and housing crashes in Europe 2010: Increasing government debt

15. The crisis, starting in 2007 2007: complex financial (mortgage) products start to collapse as the US housing market cools down. Investors get worried about the banking sector 2008: The banking crisis starts in October with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers 2009: Worldwide recession and housing crashes in Europe 2010: Increasing government debt, collapse of European economies 2011: the EURO sovereign crisis starts

17. The crisis, starting in 2007 2007: complex financial (mortgage) products start to collapse as the US housing market cools down. Investors get worried about the banking sector 2008: The banking crisis starts in October with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers 2009: Worldwide recession and housing crashes in Europe 2010: Increasing government debt, collapse of European economies 2011: the EURO sovereign crisis starts 2012: EUROZONE back in recession

19. The crisis, starting in 2007 2007: complex financial (mortgage) products start to collapse as the US housing market cools down. Investors get worried about the banking sector 2008: The banking crisis starts in October with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers 2009: Worldwide recession and housing crashes in Europe 2010: Increasing government debt, collapse of European economies 2011: the EURO sovereign crisis starts 2012: EUROZONE back in recession 2013: EUROZONE problems remain 2014: EUROZONE towards QE, the ultimate weapon 2015: collapse of the emerging economies

23. The crisis, starting in 2007 The world economic outlook: the developed world recovers, the emerging economies suffer, but nothing spectacular at first sight?

25. The crisis, starting in 2007 The world economic outlook: the developed world recovers, the emerging economies suffer, but nothing spectacular at first sight? BUT DETERIORATING CONFIDENCE! WHY?

26. McKinsey survey

27. The crisis, starting in 2007 The world economic outlook: the developed world recovers, the emerging economies suffer, but nothing spectacular at first sight? The US is back to solid growth

33. The crisis, starting in 2007 The world economic outlook: the developed world recovers, the emerging economies suffer, but nothing spectacular at first sight? The US is back to solid growth but the appreciation of the USD could become problematic

35. The crisis, starting in 2007 The world economic outlook: the developed world recovers, the emerging economies suffer, but nothing spectacular at first sight? The US is back to solid growth but the appreciation of the USD could become problematic And low oil prices kill shale oil

38. The crisis, starting in 2007 The world economic outlook: the developed world recovers, the emerging economies suffer, but nothing spectacular at first sight? The US is back to solid growth but the appreciation of the USD could become problematic And low oil prices kill shale oil End of QE soon?

39. The crisis, starting in 2007 The world economic outlook: the developed world recovers, the emerging economies suffer, but nothing spectacular at first sight? The US is back to solid growth Europe seems to be slowly recovering

44. EUROSTOXX 50

45. The crisis, starting in 2007 The world economic outlook: the developed world recovers, the emerging economies suffer, but nothing spectacular at first sight? The US is back to solid growth Europe seems to be slowly recovering Supported by a lower Euro And by a QE programme But internal political uncertainty remains with Grexit and Brexit And external political uncertainty about the Middle East, Northern Africa and Ukraine

46. The crisis, starting in 2007 The world economic outlook: the developed world recovers, the emerging economies suffer, but nothing spectacular at first sight? The US is back to solid growth Europe seems to be slowly recovering The emerging economies are no longer a club of winners

48. china

50. The crisis, starting in 2007 The world economic outlook: the developed world recovers, the emerging economies suffer, but nothing spectacular at first sight? How did we arrive where we are?