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Critical Mass as a Viable Framework for Agriculture Negotiations Andrew L. Stoler

Critical Mass as a Viable Framework for Agriculture Negotiations Andrew L. Stoler Institute for International Trade. Critical Mass Trade Agreements. Information Technology Agreement – 1996 CM = 90 percent of world trade in covered products = 40 governments

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Critical Mass as a Viable Framework for Agriculture Negotiations Andrew L. Stoler

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  1. Critical Mass as a Viable Framework for Agriculture Negotiations Andrew L. Stoler Institute for International Trade

  2. Critical Mass Trade Agreements • Information Technology Agreement – 1996 • CM = 90 percent of world trade in covered products = 40 governments • Financial Services Negotiations – 1997 • CM = 70 governments • Basic Telecom Services Negotiations – 1997 • CM = 91 percent of telecom revenues = 69 governments

  3. Potential for Critical Mass Agreements in Agriculture Trade * No double counting of countries that export & import. WTO Members in ( ).

  4. Characteristics of a CMA • Opt – in Agreement • Scope: Market Access & Subsidies • MFN Applicability • Bound in WTO Schedules ? • Subject to DSU ? By Who ?

  5. Change in Net Welfare, $US Millions (2006): Simulation using the ATPS Trade Model * By itself, Brazil realizes important net welfare gains in all scenarios modelled.

  6. NO Need to balance agriculture negotiations with NAMA & Services Multi-speed WTO and unacceptable free riders Comparative advantage in agriculture not distributed along developed and developing country lines YES Nothing in CMA for agriculture makes other negotiations impossible Current draft modalities produce multi-speed WTO and free riders Need to abandon purely mercantilist view and look at total national economic welfare CMA politically viable for agriculture?

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