1 / 12

Comparisons of Downswing Phases

Comparisons of Downswing Phases. Dr. Gernot Nerb, Ifo Institute. November 2007 OECD-EU Workshop. Which scenario is most likely in 2007/ 2008. ?. Soft landing as in 1995/1996 or 1998/1999. … or. hard landing as in 1973/1974/1975 or 1990/1991/1992/1993. ?. 30. Upswing. Boom.

ginabracken
Télécharger la présentation

Comparisons of Downswing Phases

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Comparisons of Downswing Phases Dr. Gernot Nerb, Ifo Institute November 2007 OECD-EU Workshop

  2. Which scenario is most likely in 2007/ 2008 ?

  3. Soft landing as in 1995/1996 or 1998/1999

  4. … or hard landing as in 1973/1974/1975 or 1990/1991/1992/1993 ?

  5. 30 Upswing Boom Jan. 2004 20 10 October 2007 0 Jan. 2003 -10 -20 WTC Attack Sept. 11 -30 Downswing Recession -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Ifo Business Cycle Clock - Manufacturing Industry1) Assessment of current business situation vs. business expectations Jan. 2006 Jan. 2000 Jan. 2007 Jan. 1998 Jan. 2005 Expectations for the next 6 months Jan. 2001 Jan. 1999 Jan. 2002 Current business situation 1) Manufacturing industry including food, beverages and tobacco.Balances, seasonally adjusted. Sources: Ifo Business Survey, Germany.

  6. Good chances for a soft landing Thank you

More Related