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Advanced Forecasting Techniques: Utilizing Analogous Methods for Temperature and Dew Point Predictions

Discover essential forecasting techniques such as Persistence, Modified Persistence, and Extrapolation, with an emphasis on Analogous Methods for temperature and dew point forecasting. Understand how to identify upstream locations for air mass origins using SLP and thickness, and learn the nuances of daytime and nighttime temperature comparisons. Explore case examples demonstrating Analogous Thickness and Dew Point approaches, while considering variables like cyclogenesis, snow cover, and local wind effects. Enhance your forecasting skills and accuracy with these insightful strategies.

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Advanced Forecasting Techniques: Utilizing Analogous Methods for Temperature and Dew Point Predictions

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Presentation Transcript

  1. BASIC forecasting techniques: • Persistence • Modified Persistence • Extrapolation • Trend • Association/ Analogous Methods • Answers the million dollar question: “ …. what upstream location …?”

  2. Analogous Thickness Methods • Temperature forecasts • Find upstream location where air mass is coming from • Use slp and thickness to approximate upstream location (note features too!) • For daytime max: • Compare 00z to 00z, or 18z to 18z • For nighttime min: • Compare 12z to 12z

  3. Temperature Forecasting:Analogous Thickness 00z Sunday: 9/2 (36 hour fcst) 00z Saturday: 9/1 (12 hour fcst)

  4. Analogous Thickness • Dew Point Forecasting • Find upstream location where air mass is coming from • Use slp and thickness to approximate upstream location (note features too!)

  5. Case Example: MDT SEPTEMBER 4th MDT’s Dew Point 18z on Sept. 4th? 70F MDT’s Dew Point at 18z On Sept. 5th?

  6. MDT: Analogous Thickness MDT’s Thickness on the 5th? 569dm MDT’s SLP on the 5th? 1019mb MDT’s location Relative to Fronts, Highs or lows?

  7. MDT DEW: Analogous Thickness Thickness? 569dm SLP? 1019mb MDT’s location Relative to Fronts, Highs or lows?

  8. Case Example: MDT SEPTEMBER 4 Analogous Dew Point? 53-57F

  9. Case Example: MDT Ladies and gentlemen the MDT DEW is …………

  10. Analogous Thickness • Caveats • Not all locations with = thick/slp values are the “analogous” site • cyclogenesis, anticylcgenisis • Consider air mass modification/local effects • Snow cover • Wind off large body of water • Analogous site should be of similar altitude • Errors can occur near strong fronts

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