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Inference

This discussion explores the pitfalls of inference methods, specifically how Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) can lead to overfitting without error bars, while certain Bayesian approaches may fail due to improper priors. The narrative emphasizes the importance of proper distribution and information independence, addressing the broader implications of these limitations in statistical analysis. We delve into the connection between past and future singularities in the universe, suggesting that our understanding of bio and information may influence the future of inference.

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Inference

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Presentation Transcript


  1. Inference

  2. MLE fails overfits! no error bars!

  3. Bayesian recipe fails improper! improper!

  4. Wrong! Wrong!

  5. The honest answer

  6. spread concentrate All distributions Ignorance = Independence &Uniformity

  7. Info dead Future singularity born you are here! bio is here! Past singularity the universe is here!

  8. Inference

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