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The Dynamics of Democracy: Analyzing Political Trends and Development in a Changing World

This comprehensive analysis explores political trends and developments shaping the future of democracy, particularly in relation to elite and public opinion. It examines the aspirations for democracy, the historical context of communism and capitalism, and the role of economic development in promoting democratic governance. By engaging with theories of corporatism and dependency, and considering case studies from Latin America and Eastern Europe, the study sheds light on the prospects for democratic transitions amid societal challenges and changing global communications.

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The Dynamics of Democracy: Analyzing Political Trends and Development in a Changing World

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  1. Toward the Future Wiarda

  2. Comp Pol trends • follow elite & public opinion • so expect a lot more on post-comm? • Positive developments rekindle interest • Africa more attention after democratization

  3. Tradition • legal-formal-descriptive • analytical aspirations joined with need to explain superiority of democracy over communism and interest in newly independent nations

  4. Biases • Anti Fascist • Fear of totalitarianism • Self-love of capitalism

  5. Pol Dev: the fall • more familiar now with critique • ethnocentric • 1st world unique • dependency • traditional soc still valid • false expectations • methodology • Huntington & Vietnam!

  6. New strands • Corporatism • Political Economy • Indigenous • BA regimes: partial account • Pol Culture now reviving

  7. Pol Dev revival? • 3 decades of experience • democ, pluralism, stability, rep. Govt, blend state reg & open economies, social modernization [239] • [Is this what works or what we want to work?!] • Communism unattractive

  8. Development • Democracy & middle class • economic development is correlating better now than in 60s

  9. Tasks • Abandon search for single theory • Work in sub-fields on projects • Develop islands of theory at middle range • Build bridges • state-society & public policy • IPE re socialist & capitalist economies • coporatism and dependency

  10. Huntington: “Will more countries become democratic?”PSQ 1984 • Greatest potential BA Latin America • Argentina & Chile “polarizing” • Prospects better in Brazil • Islamic Low • Africa low • “Likelihood of democ devlpt in E Europe is virtually nil”

  11. Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? 1997 • Wave 1: 1848 etc in Europe • First reverse wave: fascism • Wave 2: Post WWII effects in 3W • Second reverse wave of auth in late 60s & 70s • 3rd wave movements • most actively pursued by urban middle class

  12. Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? 1997 • Combination of substantial econ dev and short term econ crisis most likely to lead to shift from auth to democ govt • Demonstration effects • More important in 3rd wave than first two due to expansion in global communications

  13. Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? 1997 • Transformation: when elites took lead • ~16/35 3rd wave transitions • e.g. Spain, Brazil, Hungary • Replacement: opposition groups took lead • 6/35 (3/7 changes from personal dictatorships) • Greece, Argentina, Philippines, Portugal, Romania, East Germany

  14. Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? 1997 • Transplacement: when democ occurred due to joint action by govt and opposition • ~11/35 • Poland, Czech, Uruguay, Korea • also some role in Bolivia, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua

  15. Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? Predictions • 1st efforts often fail and 2nd succeed • elections vehicle and goal • Tied to economic performance? • Conditional on external aid?

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