Existing & Future Earthquake Information Systems

1. Existing & Future EarthquakeInformation Systems Ken Hudnut USGS, Pasadena LA Financial Services Sector Regional Recovery Coalition Meeting 17 November 2005, Los Angeles

2. Southern California is the nation’s most dangerous place for earthquakes - why? Big Bend Half of the Nation's earthquake risk Since Northridge we’ve built state-of-the-art earthquake monitoring Arrays. Crucible for technology and earthquake research within SoCal’s natural laboratory

3. San Andreas fault • 35 mm/yr slip rate; • >70% of plate motion • 1685, 1857 eq’s • SoCal is now well ‘wired’ • Likely source of most future ‘Big Ones’ • Fault physics experiment • GPS/INS in near-field • ALSM & DG scan ‘net’ • Great place to test EEW • Build “zipper” arrays • Cholame - Simmler • Coachella Valley

6. Statewide Monitoring

7. The CISN http://www.cisn.org • Founding Members • OES • USGS • CGS • UC Berkeley • Caltech • Contributing Members • Other Universities • Regional Utilities • Other Gov. Agencies • ANSS Member • CA Component of Nationwide Initiative

8. Epicenter Products since the 1930’s:Magnitude & Location Seismograms

10. ShakeMap available for every California earthquake over M3.5 within 10 minutes • What are the effects of the earthquake? • Should we respond? • What level of response? • Loss estimation?

11. CISN Display – Web-based Products • URL’s it provides • Waveform GIFs • Focal Mechanisms/ Moment Tensors • CIIM pages (Felt Reports) • ShakeMap • Station Lists • Tsunami Alerts • Aftershock Forecasts • HAZUS Input files • Engineering Internet Quick Reports*

12. Future - Earthquake Early Warning Warning of imminent earthquake shaking Strong shaking travels at 2 miles/sec. Warning

13. GPS network infra- structure forms a foundation for real-time structural damage detection and response • Telemetry upgrades • Algorithm develop- ment and testing • Implementation

14. San Andreas - place two betsboth ~120 km from Los Angeles (LA) Coachella Valley segment is ~60 km to San Bernardino L A

16. Lone Juniper Ranch and Frazier Park High School Prototype GPS fault slip sensor; up to 10 Hz Spans the San Andreas fault near Gorman, California

17. San Andreas - instrument majorlifeline infrastructure crossings L A

18. M 7.9 San Andreas - Krishnan et al. (Caltech)

19. M 7.9 San Andreas - Krishnan et al. (Caltech)

20. Courtesy of Erdal Safak (USGS)

21. Factor Building at UCLAPrototype for DamageMap PI’s Erdal Safak, Monical Kohler and Paul Davis

22. Initial GPS Data from Factor Building

23. Summary • Slip sensor concept is to augment regional seismic coverage - one part of an overall EEW system that is primarily using a very different approach • Measure slip directly - don’t need to know anything else - ‘quick & easy’ • High risk deployment strategy tuned to rare pay-off in extreme events • Robust earthquake early warning system design • obtain more accurate displacement observations • new instrumentation for dynamic and static displacement address deficiencies due to double-integration of accelerometer records • Same R&D effort as for DamageMap instrumentation - now under way with USGS Venture Capital and ANSS start-up funds, but major funding and long-term support for implementation has not yet been identified

24. Ken Hudnut Dept. of the Interior - U. S. Geological Survey 525 South Wilson Ave. Pasadena, CA 91106 626-583-7232 hudnut@usgs.gov