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Future Research Agenda

Future Research Agenda. Charles Hirschman University of Washington. Back to the Basics. What is the research question? Dept. variable, hypothesis Empirical description: Magnitude, trends, pattern Model: Search for explanation Natural history: origins and development

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Future Research Agenda

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  1. Future Research Agenda Charles Hirschman University of Washington

  2. Back to the Basics • What is the research question? • Dept. variable, hypothesis • Empirical description: • Magnitude, trends, pattern • Model: Search for explanation • Natural history: origins and development • Prevalence, intensity • Implications for interventions

  3. Research Questions • Define and describe child migration • Incidence, prevalence, circular, origin • What are consequences of migration for children? • Depends on type of migration: tied, solo, left behind • What the counterfactual? • Relative to what comparison group

  4. Additional Questions 3. Social Mobility of Children (by immigrant generation) in destination area 4a. Effects of child migration on non-migrants in sending area 4b. Effects of child migration on non-migrants in destination area

  5. Measurement of Dept Variable(s) • Absolute number • experience event in a period • Ever (cumulative) experience event • Return and repeat migration • Ratio: (relative to a reference population) • In destination area • Total pop or non-migrants • In origin area(s) • Total pop or non-migrants

  6. More on Measurement • Rate: defined as population experience event in a period relative to population (mid-year) exposed to risk of event • Examples from Massey: • Annual probability of first time migration of never migrants in origin • Annual probability of return migration of ever migration in destination • Annual probability of repeat migration of returned migrants

  7. Preliminary Model of Consequences of Migration on Children Underlying Conditions Migration Family/ Community Child Well Being

  8. Child Well Being • Define Universe by risk of stage of development (0-5, 6-12, 13-17) • Outcomes of Interest: • Health: status, risky behaviors, preventive contacts or treatment • Education: enrollment, attainment, mastery

  9. Family/Community Proximate Variables Influencing Child Well-Being • Prior to migration & change following migration: • Family Economic Status • Family Structure • Community Resources (clinics, schools)

  10. Migration Patterns • Migration of unattached adults • Solo migration of parents • Family migration • Solo migration of children • To join parents • To join relatives • For schooling • Into bondage

  11. Underlying Conditions Poverty: absolute or relative Population density relative to resources Spatial inequality Developmental change (Commercial agriculture, wage labor, ideational changes) Labor Recruitment Family/friends in destination areas Immigration policies

  12. Some speculative thoughts Family economic status will be key link to child well being Major problems of children in LDC’s stem from underlying conditions Migration can create new problems for children (esp. in vulnerable families), but generally, it is solution

  13. Implications for Policies • Need to be aligned with history • Migration is natural and inevitable part of development • Special treatment or set asides create popular resentments • Fairness in access to markets , such as labor, schooling, housing, credit is more acceptable

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