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Technology and the Evolution of Complexity

Technology and the Evolution of Complexity . Human Complex Systems, Feb 23, 2007 W. Brian Arthur External Professor, Santa Fe Institute. How does the collective of technology evolve over time?. And what does this say about the evolution of complexity? . Consider … .

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Technology and the Evolution of Complexity

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  1. Technology and the Evolution of Complexity Human Complex Systems, Feb 23, 2007 W. Brian Arthur External Professor, Santa Fe Institute

  2. How does the collective of technology evolve over time? And what does this say about the evolution of complexity?

  3. Consider … • Novel technologies are constructed from existing technologies • … and offer themselves as components—building blocks for the construction of further technologies

  4. Technology Builds Itself from Itself Technology is autopoietic or self-creating: • New elements build from existing ones • Complication builds from simplicity

  5. W. F. Ogburn’s Claim (1922)

  6. Exponential buildup of technology? • Dubious: Many combinatorics possible • (Simplest gives 2N– N – 1 possible technologies) • Diminishing returns to novelty or to demand possible

  7. An Experiment at FXPALW. Brian Arthur and Wolfgang Polak • Idea • - Create an artificial world in which the technologies are logic circuits • - Give this world “logic needs” to be potentially fulfilled • Allow the system to create technologies to fulfill these • by combining previous technologies

  8. Rules of the Experiment 1.Start from one primitive (NAND gate) 2. Make circuits by random combination of existing elements 3. Check to see if any needs (target logic purposes) are fulfilled 4. If so, these novel circuits become new building blocks 5. Better versions (simpler ones) replace previous versions

  9. Tech 20

  10. 1-bit adder

  11. 2-bit adder

  12. Tech 33: And-3

  13. 3-bit adder

  14. 4-bit adder

  15. We Find …   • Quite complicated circuits evolve • An 8-bit adder (16 inputs, 9 outputs) is one of 10177,554 possible circuits

  16. We Find …   2. Complicated circuits require intermediate steps • … and intermediate needs • (Cf. R. Lenski et al. Evol. Origin of Complex Features)

  17. We Find …   3. Buildup is history dependent • New technologies build on what is

  18. We Find …   • 4. Sudden appearance of key circuits (enabling technologies) then quick use of these • Full adder appears after 32,000 steps; 2,3,4-bit adders quickly after that

  19. Gales of Destruction When a technology disappears (is replaced) a technology it used may have no further use. That tech then disappears … etc. • Q. Are these gales “sand-pile avalanches”? • I.e. is the system at self-organized criticality?

  20. Avalanches of destruction follow a power law

  21. Summary: a different view • Technology is a self-constructing “chemistry” (-cf. genetic regulatory networks) • Technology bootstraps in numbers and complication • Innovation: places of generative interaction important • Where a chemistry is generated, harbored, nurtured

  22. The Process as Evolutionary Algorithm • Our algorithm creates a library of functionalities by constructing new objects from previously existing ones • Differs from genetic algorithm or GP in several ways

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