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Legal Cigarette volumes 1981 - 2006

1991 - 38 billion. Legal Cigarette volumes 1981 - 2006. 40 000 mn. 30 000 mn. 20 000 mn. 2006 - 23 billion. 1981. 1991. 2006. Source – Industry sales figures. Fewer people are smoking. Source – General Consumer Survey, 2001 - 2006.

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Legal Cigarette volumes 1981 - 2006

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  1. 1991 - 38 billion Legal Cigarette volumes 1981 - 2006 40 000 mn 30 000 mn 20 000 mn 2006 - 23 billion 1981 1991 2006 Source – Industry sales figures

  2. Fewer people are smoking Source – General Consumer Survey, 2001 - 2006

  3. Total tobacco not declining since 2001,but illicit trade is growing 70.7% 72.8% 73.6% 68.3% 63.7% 63.5% Illicit Trade Pipe/RYO Legal Cigarette Source - Illicit Trade Research – Research International

  4. Impact on farmers and farm workers 1990 – 1016 farmers 1990 – 60 810 farm workers 2006 – 200 farmers 2006 – 21 000 farm workers Source – Tobacco Institute of South Africa

  5. 1000’s of substances Burnt in a cigarette Combustion of Tobacco TAR max 12mg/cig Nicotine max 1.2mg/cig in smoke as per machine measure Nicotine (1%-4%) no TAR Particles + = 100’s of substances Gas / Vapour Tobacco Leaf Smoke Aerosol TAR: Total Aerosol Residue

  6. 1000’s of substances Snus-use and consequences Snus with tobacco in it No burning of Snus No tar + = TAR: Total Aerosol Residue

  7. Non-tobacco ingredients for TOTAL BATSA portfolio 13 ingredients 33 ingredients 8 ingredients 1 ingredient 6 ingredients 4 ingredients 6 ingredients http://www.bat-ingredients.com or batsa.com

  8. Illicit Trade Research Methodology

  9. Background • This project is designed to track the incidence of illicit trade in tobacco products in SA • Monthly waves of interviews and pack retrievals with respondents around the country. • Because all outlet types are representatively covered in a three month period of fieldwork, the total sample is a good, representative sample of cigarette purchases.

  10. Definition of illicit Legal Compliant SA Stock – packs Counterfeit – packs Non-compliant (duty not paid, no H/W, etc) – packs – tar for all above 12mg Definitely illicit Illicit Suspect Suspect Priced – packs (local manufactured) Suspect Priced – packs (SADC manufactured) Suspect Priced – packs (EU manufactured) Below R8.50

  11. Methodology • Representative coverage (time/ day/ area/ store type) • One wave per year we have 2 interviewers per oultet • Interviewer 1: cigarette purchase incidence • Interviewer 2: exit interviews & product swap • Interview structure: • Masked as Quality Control • Demographic and pricing questions • Product swap (incentive: R20/pack) • Collected product analysed by BATSA internal experts • Quality control: • 100% questionnaire check, Spot checks on outlets • Back checks per interviewer: Average 30%

  12. Methodology: Sample breakdown *margin of error = 1.3%

  13. Internal verification • Due to the serious nature of the research certain key checks and balances undertaken • Methodology Audited by BAT International Auditors against Global Protocol • Currently being audited by BATSA internal audit against independent research standards – SAMRA (South African Market Research Association) • Results then cross referenced against other BAT research

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