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2020 Economic Outlook: Slow Recovery Predicted, Industry Analysis, Global Trends

This report by Chief Economist Dan Meckstroth analyzes manufacturing capacity, business investment trends, and global industrial production, forecasting a sluggish economic recovery for 2020. Insights on nonresidential construction, surplus cash in nonfinancial corporations, and recovery patterns for the U.S., Japanese, and Canadian manufacturing sectors are provided.

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2020 Economic Outlook: Slow Recovery Predicted, Industry Analysis, Global Trends

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  1. A Relatively Sluggish recovery expected in 2010 Presented by Dan Meckstroth Chief Economist dmeckstroth@mapi.net

  2. Widespread Excess Capacity in Manufacturing Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Capacity Utilization By Industry Source: Federal Reserve Board

  3. Global Exports Bottoming Out • United States and World Exports of Goods, Inflation-Adjusted Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

  4. Nonfinancial Corporations Have Surplus Cash • Nonfarm Nonfinancial Financing Gap* Source: Federal Reserve Board *Capital expenditures less the sum of US internal funds and inventory valuation adjustment

  5. Diverging Business Investment Patterns in 2010 • Business Investment, Inflation-Adjusted Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis , MAPI Simulation of IHS Global Insight Model F=Forecast

  6. Nonresidential Construction Continues To Decline Nonresidential Construction Construction By Type Source: Left – U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Right – MAPI Simulation of IHS Global Insight Model

  7. Most Industries Are In Recession Phase Relative To One Year Ago Cyclical Position of Business Investment Industries in Third Quarter 2009 Source: MAPI

  8. Capital Equipment Industries Were Pulled Into Recession Investment-Related Manufacturing Production Source: Federal Reserve Board, MAPI Simulation of IHS Global Insight Model

  9. Forward-Looking Manufacturing Indicators Improve Manufacturing Production and Purchasing Managers’ Production Indexes Source: Federal Reserve Board, Institute for Supply Management

  10. U.S., Japanese, and Canadian Manufacturing Recovering From Severe Recession Industrial Production By Country Industrial Production By Country Source: Left – OECD, Right – Consensus Forecasts, MAPI

  11. Asia Outside Japan Leads Manufacturing Recovery Industrial Production By Region Industrial Production By Region Source: Left – OECD, Right – Consensus Forecasts, MAPI

  12. A Severe Global Recession Followed By Strong Initial Recovery World Industrial Production World Industrial Production Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Consensus Forecasts, MAPI

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