1 / 50

Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Hayley Cohen, Lake Research Partners

Take on Wall Street Analysis of Findings from a Survey of 1,000 Likely 2018 Voters and 350 Drop-off Voters in 100 Congressional Battleground Districts. Robert Carpenter, Chesapeake Beach Consulting. Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Hayley Cohen, Lake Research Partners

griffis
Télécharger la présentation

Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Hayley Cohen, Lake Research Partners

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Take on Wall StreetAnalysis of Findings from a Survey of 1,000 Likely 2018 Voters and 350 Drop-off Voters in100 Congressional Battleground Districts Robert Carpenter, Chesapeake Beach Consulting Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Hayley Cohen, Lake Research Partners Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066

  2. Survey Methodology • Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey, in consultation with Chesapeake Beach Consulting, which was conducted by phone using professional interviewers. The survey reached 1,000 likely 2018 general election voters and 350 drop-off voters across 100 congressional battleground districts nationwide. The survey was conducted April 28th – May 7th, 2018. • The survey queried likely voters – ones with regular midterm vote history – and included an extra sampling of surge, or drop-off voters, who vote in presidential elections, but unevenly in midterms. (Careful polling of irregular voters is essential to accurate surveys in elections outside presidential years.) • Telephone numbers for the survey were drawn using a file of registered voters. The sample was stratified geographically to reflect the expected turnout of 2018 General Election voters as well as the possible surge voters who usually do not vote in off year elections. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-3.1% and larger for subgroups. • In interpreting survey results, all sample surveys are subject to possible sampling error; that is, the results of a survey may differ from those that would be obtained if the entire population were interviewed. The size of the sampling error depends upon both the total number of respondents in the survey and the percentage distribution of responses to a particular question. For example, if 50% of respondents in the total sample answered “yes” to a particular question, we can be 95% confident that the true percentage will fall within +/-3.1 percentage points of this percentage or between 46.9% and 53.1%. 2

  3. Key Findings: Overview of Findings • This survey reveals overwhelming, broad-based, and strong support for curbing big banks’ influence in Washington. Roughly two-thirds of both likely voters and drop-off voters agree Wall Street’s influence in Washington, D.C. is too high (likely voters: 66% too high, 3% too low; drop-off voters: 64% too high, 5% too low). Moreover, half of likely voters (50%) and a solid majority of drop-off (59%) voters see “curbing Wall Street’s influence” as an important issue in determining their vote in 2018. • Voters are prepared to reward candidates who support efforts to curb Wall Street’s influence—and punish those who do not. Majorities of both likely and drop-off voters indicate they are more likely to support a candidate who refuses campaign donations from big banks and Wall Street executives (55% and 60% more likely, respectively). • Candidates who promote reforms to curb Wall Street’s influence over the economy and government stand to improve their position with voters of all persuasions, and to motivate less likely progressive voters to turn out. In a political environment where Democrats lead Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by a relatively narrow margin -- 5 points among likely voters (41% to 36%, with 21% undecided) and by 13 points among drop-off voters (44% to 31%, with 23% undecided) -- the impact can be consequential. 3

  4. Key Findings: Overview of Findings (continued) • Beyond supporting Wall Street reform in general terms, voters also strongly embrace a range of robust and very specific policy proposals designed to curb Wall Street’s influence as well. • There is remarkable intensity and reach for “hold[ing] financial companies accountable if they discriminate against people based on their race or ethnicity”, including three-quarters of likely voters (77%) and more than eight-in-ten drop-off voters (83%) strongly supportive. • Separating commercial banking from investment banking also enjoys commanding support (53% of drop off and likely voters strongly support, with 72% of likely and 71% of drop off voters total support). • While an argument advocating eliminating stock buybacks is quite persuasive (71% convincing, including 45% very, among likely voters), the proposal itself, without any messaging, significantly underperforms (37% support among likely voters, incl. 28% strong). • The strongest message frames in favor of government taking a tougher stance on Wall Street highlight Wall Street’s racially discriminatory lending practices; the massive payouts from the recent tax bill; their outsize political influence; and their role in exacerbating economic inequality. 4

  5. Key Findings: Perceptions of the Players • “The financial industry” is viewed more favorably than not, and much more favorably than either “Wall Street banks” or “big banks”. Specifically invoking Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo only sours voters further in their opinions of the banks. • Wall Street banks are viewed unfavorably by nearly every segment of voters, including voters in districts rated by The Cook Political Report as Likely Republican. Despite Trump’s anti-institutionalist rhetoric, Republicans are split in their opinions of Wall Street banks. • The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act remains largely undefined, and only slightly more positively viewed than not among the minority of voters who are able to offer an assessment. • Strong majorities across these districts agree that Wall Street has too much influence in Washington, but voters are more divided on whether Wall Street has more influence than other big industries. • Elevating the importance of this issue as a central electoral criterion is key. Fully half of likely voters and a solid majority of drop-off voters see “curbing Wall Street’s influence” as an important issue in determining their vote this November. However, as many are unsure how this issue ranks relative to other important concerns, like job creation, gun control, immigration, sexual harassment, college affordability, police accountability, healthcare and national security—or view it as less important. • Drop-off voters and older, college educated women tend to prefer “reforming Wall Street” to “curbing Wall Street’s influence”; the opposite is true for most other major subgroups. 5

  6. Key Findings: Engaging the Debate over Tax Reform Benefiting Wall Street • While likely voters overall are equally supportive of both moderate and more aggressive (TOWS-style) arguments in support of Wall Street reform, Democrats, drop-off voters, and independents all prefer the latter, which in addition to featuring a hotter tone, is bolder than its moderate counterpart in calling for repeal of the recent tax cuts for the big Wall Street banks. • Overall, combining responses to both the moderate and aggressive frames, the pro-reform arguments tend to perform best among drop-off voters, the Rising American Electorate (RAE), younger and college educated women, and Democrats. • However, we win this debate among all major subgroups in the data, including men and women; younger and older voters; whites, African Americans, and Latinos; voters in every region of the country; and voters in districts rated as Likely/ Lean Dem, Tossup, Lean GOP, and Likely GOP. • Voters are prepared to reward candidates who support efforts to curb Wall Street’s influence—and punish those who do not. Majorities of both likely and drop-off voters indicate they are more likely to support a candidate who has refused campaign donations from big banks and Wall Street executives. • Similar majorities are less likely to support a candidate who has received such donations from big banks and Wall Street executives. 6

  7. Key Findings: Support for Reform Policies • There is broad and intense support for a number of specific policy proposals designed to curb Wall Street’s influence. The top tier includes holding financial companies accountable for racial discrimination; separating commercial banking from investment banking, or simply breaking up big banks; and eliminating the ‘carried interest loophole’. • The second tier of proposals generates more divided opinions. Some, like reversing the recent tax cuts for Wall Street and ending tax provisions that allow U.S. corporations to pay a lower rate on their income earned overseas, enjoy the support of (albeit narrow) majorities in these battleground districts. • Others, like ending stock buybacks that allow corporations to buy their own stock to increase executives and shareholders' wealth, are more mixed. • An argument around eliminating stock buybacks helps convince voters of the need for Wall Street reform (71% convincing, including 45% very, among likely voters), but as a stand-alone proposal, it lacks great support (37% support, including just 28% strongly). • These top proposals consistently resonate strongest among the RAE, Democrats and Clinton voters. However, Drop-off Voters, Older men and independents express strong support throughout. 7

  8. Key Findings: Reform Messaging • The messages in support of reforms to curb Wall Street’s influence boast impressive reach and generate considerable intensity. The strongest arguments center on the big banks’ racially discriminatory lending practices, Wall Street’s role in exacerbating economic inequality, the tangled influence of the banks on Washington, D.C., and the vastly different consequences of the recent tax legislation for Wall Street versus for working families. Drop-off voters are especially motivated by messages that invoke economic inequality and racial discrimination. • A message that underscores the massive benefits delinquent Wall Street banks gained from the tax bill is the most effective message among likely voters. Likely voters also respond to the theme of Wall Street rigging the system. • A message that discusses Wall Street’s role in rigging the economic system is crucial to engaging drop-off voters, as is a message that highlights the banks’ racially discriminatory lending practices. • A message focused on the revolving door between big banks and government, ensuring politicians remain beholden to Wall Street, is a similarly potent argument among both likely and drop-off voters. 8

  9. Key Findings: Reform Messaging (continued) • These messages resonate strongly with Democrats and Clinton voters. However, older women are particularly swayed by arguments about inequality, Wall Street influence in the Trump administration, and the need for reform to start put the economy to work for everyone. • Younger women are most convinced by messages around inequality, Wall Street and political donors benefiting from the tax bill, Wall Street’s influence on Trump, as well as the stock buyback argument. • Independents are swayed by messages centered on the tax bill benefiting Wall Street and the wealthy, racial discrimination within the financial industry, and the political power and influence of the big banks. • Anti-reform messages fail to gain traction among either likely or drop-off voters. The opposition arguments tested are significantly less powerful than even the weakest messages in support of Wall Street reform. The strongest is a message arguing reform takes choice away from regular people (51% doubts among likely voters, including 26% serious doubts). 9

  10. Profile of the Likely 2018 Electorate across Battleground Districts GENDER AGE RACE REGION PARTY ID EDUCATION 17% HS or Less 13% Post-H.S. / Non-College Under 30 2% 37% 13% 30-39 51% 14% College Graduate 40-49 32% 32% 17% 50-64 48% 52% College Grad or Post Grad 19% Post-Graduate 30% 65+ 22% West 19% UNION MEMBERSHIP OWN STOCK INCOME 78% 24% 22% 11% 21% White Under $50k Yes, stock Yes, active Northeast 6% Black 33% Midwest 27% 5% 7% Yes, annuities $50K - $99k Yes, retired 5% Latino 24% South 36% 17% 26% 2% 100,00K+ No No Asian 4% Other 2016 PRESIDENTIAL VOTE 0% 26% 33% 2% 39% Refused 10

  11. Profile of Drop-off Voters across Battleground Districts GENDER AGE RACE REGION PARTY ID EDUCATION 19% HS or Less 9% Post-H.S. / Non-College Under 30 2% 42% 17% 30-39 50% 22% College Graduate 40-49 34% 28% 34% 50-64 42% 58% College Grad or Post Grad 16% Post-Graduate 18% 65+ 20% West 25% OWN STOCK UNION MEMBERSHIP INCOME 14% 74% 20% 26% 29% White Under $50k Yes, stock Yes, active Northeast 8% Black 28% Midwest 5% 25% 4% Yes, annuities $50K - $99k Yes, retired 7% Latino 23% South 25% 47% 19% 2% 100,00K+ No No Asian 4% Other 2016 PRESIDENTIAL VOTE 0% 12% 38% 3% 39 % Refused 11

  12. Perceptions of the Players

  13. The financial industry is viewed more favorably than not, while voters are divided in their impressions of Wall Street. Wall Street banks and big banks, elicit more negative reactions, especially when contextualized as “like Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo”. The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act remains largely undefined. Voters also dislike hedge fund managers, but are less sure of their feelings toward private equity managers. Favorability Ratings Unfavorable Favorable NO/NH Net 19/2 +10 22/1 -1 +6 28/34 27/4 -18 -15 16/4 -29 16/1 38/3 +7 34/10 -27 13 *asked of half the sample Q3. Now I'd like to ask you about some public figures and institutions. For each, please tell me whether you have a VERY favorable, SOMEWHAT favorable, somewhat UNFAVORABLE, or VERY unfavorable impression. If you have heard of the person but do not know enough to have an opinion, or if you have never heard of them, just say so, and we will move on. [RANDOMIZE LIST]

  14. Drop-off voters tend to view these actors more negatively than likely voters. Indeed, a solid plurality registers an unfavorable opinion of the term “Wall Street”, without qualifying it in any way. Their ratings are more negative when invoked alongside Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo. These voters are even less familiar with Dodd-Frank. Favorability Ratings: Drop-off Voters Unfavorable Favorable NO/NH Net -21 17/3 -4 20/1 26/2 -16 -3 38/16 31/39 +2 19/1 -34 -12 18/0 31/12 -22 14 *asked of half the sample Q3. Now I'd like to ask you about some public figures and institutions. For each, please tell me whether you have a VERY favorable, SOMEWHAT favorable, somewhat UNFAVORABLE, or VERY unfavorable impression. If you have heard of the person but do not know enough to have an opinion, or if you have never heard of them, just say so, and we will move on. [RANDOMIZE LIST]

  15. Wall Street Banks Favorability Contours Wall Street banks are viewed unfavorably by nearly every major subgroup of voters. They draw the most scorn from drop-off voters, older women, Democrats, and college educated women. Surprisingly, they are also viewed quite negatively among voters in districts rated “likely Republican”. Despite Trump’s anti-institutionalist rhetoric, Trump voters and Republicans are split on Wall Street banks. NO/NH Net 27/4 -18 -20 30/5 -24 26/2 -11 22/2 34/6 -13 27/4 -17 26/5 -24 -32 23/7 -15 31/3 -1 23/4 28/4 -17 29/10 -21 21/2 -14 -24 27/1 -5 29/7 -18 22/5 28/5 -16 -24 31/2 -30 24/3 22/3 +0 15 Do you have a VERY favorable, SOMEWHAT favorable, somewhat UNFAVORABLE, or VERY unfavorable impression of Wall Street banks?

  16. Wall Street Banks Like Goldman, Wells Fargo Favorability Contours Wall Street banks fare much more poorly when associated with Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo, particularly among Democrats, independents, the RAE, drop-off voters, and college educated voters. Though more favorable to these institutions than other groups, Trump voters and Republicans are significantly more negative towards Wall Street banks when Goldman and Wells Fargo are invoked as examples. NO/NH Net 16/1 -29 -36 19/0 -34 19/1 -34 15/2 22/0 -30 9/1 -27 16/1 -26 -36 12/0 -38 13/2 -10 19/2 19/2 -28 19/1 -32 6/1 -35 -25 17/0 -31 15/0 -32 11/1 18/3 -22 -27 16/1 -46 11/0 -17 18/ 16 Do you have a VERY favorable, SOMEWHAT favorable, somewhat UNFAVORABLE, or VERY unfavorable impression of Wall Street banks like Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo?

  17. Two-third of likely voters believe Wall Street has too much influence in Washington, but voters are more divided on whether Wall Street has more influence than other big industries. Wall Street influence vs. other big industries +63 +39 Each question asked of half the sample Q7. Do you think Wall Street's influence in Washington is too high, too low, or about right? Q8. Do you think Wall Street's has MORE influence in Washington than other big industries, about the same amount of influence as other big industries, or less influence than other big industries? 17

  18. Fully half of likely voters and a solid majority of drop-off voters see “curbing Wall Street’s influence” as an important issue in determining their vote this November. However, as many are unsure how this issue ranks relative to other important concerns or view it as less important. “Reforming Wall Street” Mean: 5.3 Mean: 5.6 Darker colors indicate intensity Q5/6. Now, I want you to think about all the issues that are important to you in determining whom you vote for in the 2018 election, issues like job creation, gun control, immigration, sexual harassment, college affordability, police accountability, healthcare and national security. Compared to all the issues that are important to you, how important is curbing Wall Street’s influence/reforming Wall Street in determining whom you vote for? Please rate your response on a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means curbing Wall Street’s influence/reforming Wall Street is not at all important, and 10 means it is extremely important – the most important issue – and you can be anywhere in between. 18

  19. Drop-off voters, older voters, and college educated women tend to prefer “reforming Wall Street” to “curbing Wall Street’s influence”, but the opposite is true for most other major subgroups in the data. 19

  20. The RAE, African American Americans, Latinos, Democrats, and drop off voters tend to place a higher than average priority on the issue of reform/ curbing Wall Street’s influence compared to other issues. Q5/6. Now, I want you to think about all the issues that are important to you in determining whom you vote for in the 2018 election, issues like job creation, gun control, immigration, sexual harassment, college affordability, police accountability, healthcare and national security. Compared to all the issues that are important to you, how important is curbing Wall Street’s influence/reforming Wall Street in determining whom you vote for? Please rate your response on a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 means curbing Wall Street’s influence/reforming Wall Street is not at all important, and 10 means it is extremely important – the most important issue – and you can be anywhere in between. 20

  21. The Political Environment and Support for Reform

  22. Likely voters and Democrats are slightly more motivated to vote this year than drop-off voters, Republicans and independents, but the differences at this stage appear modest. 22 Q2. While it is a long way off, how likely are you to vote in the November 2018 election for U.S. Senate, Congress, and local offices —are you almost CERTAIN to vote, will you PROBABLY vote, are the chances about 50-50, are you probably NOT going to vote, or are you DEFINITELY not going to vote?

  23. Generic Congressional Ballot Democrats lead the generic Congressional Ballot by a narrow margin across these districts, but run ahead in all but the toughest terrain (i.e. district rated Lean R). Republicans and Democrats are equally solidified. Democrats perform best among the RAE and women, especially younger women. The Republicans base among older and college educated men appears to have ebbed somewhat. % Undec Net D-R +6 21 +30 21 +13 23 25 -11 21 +27 20 -2 20 +10 9 +82 +5 48 -82 14 25 -12 24 +20 0 20 +15 17 +25 25 21 +21 +9 33 -5 18 +74 16 15 -74 23 Q4. And if the November 2018 election for Congress was held today, would you vote for the: [RANDOMIZE] Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate, or are you undecided?

  24. 24

  25. While likely voters are similarly supportive of Moderate and TOWS arguments, drop-off voters heavily favor the more aggressive TOWS argument, which proposes repealing the tax cuts for Wall Street and big banks. TOWS vs. Conservative* +9 Base +5 Drop-off +9 Base +22 Drop-off 25 *Asked of half the sample. Darker colors indicate intensity. Q11/12. Now I’d like to read you a pair of statements about the recent tax bill and the relationship between government and Wall Street. After hearing both statements, please tell me which is closer to your own point of view.

  26. In the context of an engaged debate, Democrats are far more convinced by the aggressive version of the argument against the tax bill than the moderate version, while the differences among independents are less pronounced. TOWS vs. Conservative* +60 Dem +3 Ind -40 Rep +39 Dem +9 Ind -29 Rep 26 *Asked of half the sample. Darker colors indicate intensity. Q11/12. Now I’d like to read you a pair of statements about the recent tax bill and the relationship between government and Wall Street. After hearing both statements, please tell me which is closer to your own point of view.

  27. Women, Clinton voters, and voters in Lean Republican districts favor the TOWS position in higher percentages than the moderate profile. Meanwhile, men and Trump voters prefer the Moderate position. As seen previously, this issue is polarized along party lines, but the increase in support for a TOWS position among certain groups outpaces the decrease in support among other groups. 27 *Small sample size.

  28. Combined Engaged Debate The combined Moderate/TOWS position is strongest among the RAE, younger and college educated women, and Democrats. However, opposition to the recent tax bill in whatever form finds purchase among independents, too, as well as among voters in all types of battleground districts, including Lean R and Likely R. Net Neither % +9 4 +18 4 5 +13 3 +2 6 +15 +12 6 4 +9 4 +49 8 +6 -34 2 4 -1 4 +3 5 +9 +19 5 6 +14 +8 6 +12 4 +4 3 4 +45 4 -33 28 Q11/12. Now I’d like to read you a pair of statements about the recent tax bill and the relationship between government and Wall Street. After hearing both statements, please tell me which is closer to your own point of view.

  29. By wide and nearly equal margins, likely voters are ready to reward candidates who distance themselves from Wall Street donors and punish those who cozy up to them. Voters are slightly more animated about rewarding candidates rather than punishing them. Refused to accept campaign donations from big banks and Wall Street executives +43 +46 Each question asked of half the sample. Darker colors indicate intensity. Q13/14. If you knew that a candidate or member of Congress had [received significant campaign donations/refused to accept campaign donations] from big banks and Wall Street executives would that make you more or less likely to vote for them, or would it not make a difference to you? 29

  30. Democrats, potential surge voters, and members of the RAE are most likely to punish candidates for Wall Street contributions. Democrats, drop off voters, college educated voters and voters in Lean Republican districts are most likely to reward candidates for not taking contributions. 30

  31. Drop-off voters remain slightly more favorable to Wall Street reform than likely voters, but reform gains support among both groups after they hear positive messages. There is little difference between those who hear negative messages and those who do not, suggesting the power of the positive messages to inoculate against attacks. +4 from Moderate Engaged Debate +12 from TOWS Engaged Debate +34 Base +56 Drop-off 31 Q16. If a candidate running for Congress in your district supported these arguments,would that make you more or less likely to vote for them, or would it not make a difference to you?

  32. Support for Specific Policy Reforms

  33. Beyond supporting Wall Street reform in general terms, voters also strongly embrace a range of robust and very specific policy proposals designed to curb Wall Street’s influence. There is particularly broad and intense support for holding financial companies accountable for racial discrimination. Net Drop-off % Strong Support +80 78 +45 83 +45 54 +60 53 +33 57 +19 48 +19 44 33 Darker colors indicate intensity All questions asked of half the sample. Q9. Now I am going to read you a list of proposals that are being considered to reform the financial system. For each, please tell me if you support or oppose the proposal. If you don’t know, just say so and we will move on.

  34. A second tier of proposals generates more division. While breaking up the biggest banks and reversing the recent tax cuts for Wall Street enjoy the support of narrower majorities, other proposals, like ending stock buybacks that allow corporations to buy their own stock to increase executives and shareholders' wealth, are more mixed. Net Drop-off % Strong Support +21 42 +15 41 +33 57 34 Darker colors indicate intensity All questions asked of half the sample. Q9. Now I am going to read you a list of proposals that are being considered to reform the financial system. For each, please tell me if you support or oppose the proposal. If you don’t know, just say so and we will move on.

  35. These top proposals consistently perform strongest among the RAE, Democrats and Clinton voters. However, drop-off Voters, older men and independents also express strong support throughout. 35 Data taken from best testing language for each proposal. Q9/10

  36. Ending stock buy backs is a more controversial proposal, especially without messaging to explain and contextualize it. • Proposals to Reform Wall Street: 3rd Tier Oppose Support Drop-off % Strong Support Net 28 -3 -13 42 36 Darker colors indicate intensity All questions asked of half the sample. Q9. Now I am going to read you a list of proposals that are being considered to reform the financial system. For each, please tell me if you support or oppose the proposal. If you don’t know, just say so and we will move on.

  37. Voters across party lines are more supportive of ending stock buybacks when the concept is explained as investing in executives’ wealth over investing in jobs and long-term growth. End stock buybacks that allow corporations to buy their own stock to increase executives and shareholders' wealth. 37 All questions asked of half the sample. Q9. Now I am going to read you a list of proposals that are being considered to reform the financial system. For each, please tell me if you support or oppose the proposal. If you don’t know, just say so and we will move on.

  38. Although the intensity falls somewhat, voters also indicate they would be more likely to support candidates who champion these reform proposals. Net Drop-off % Much more likely +64 69 +47 44 +43 34 +47 31 +37 47 +7 38 +20 30 38 Darker colors indicate intensity All questions asked of half the sample. Q10. Now I am going to read you a list of proposals that are being considered to reform the financial system. For each, please tell me if you support or oppose the proposal. If you don’t know, just say so and we will move on.

  39. Notably, support for reversing the recent tax cuts for Wall Street is less pronounced when framed in the context of a campaign position, perhaps underscoring the skepticism members of both major Parties face on this particular issue. Net Drop-off % Much More likely 41 +32 34 +43 31 +10 39 Darker colors indicate intensity All questions asked of half the sample. Q10. Now I am going to read you a list of proposals that are being considered to reform the financial system. For each, please tell me if you support or oppose the proposal. If you don’t know, just say so and we will move on.

  40. Voters are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports ending stock buy backs without an explanation of the trade of investments in executives’ wealth versus investments in jobs and growth. More or less likely to vote for a candidate who supports… Less likely More likely Drop off % Much more likely Net 30 -5 +7 17 40 Darker colors indicate intensity All questions asked of half the sample. Q9. Now I am going to read you a list of proposals that are being considered to reform the financial system. For each, please tell me if you support or oppose the proposal. If you don’t know, just say so and we will move on.

  41. Message and Positioning

  42. Reform Messages – Top Tier The messages in support of reforms to curb Wall Street’s influence boast impressive reach and generate considerable intensity. The strongest arguments center on the big banks’ racially discriminatory lending practices, Wall Street’s role in exacerbating economic inequality, the influence of the banks on Washington, D.C., and the vastly different consequences of the recent tax legislation for Wall Street versus for working families. Drop-off voters are especially motivated by messages that invoke economic inequality. Very Convincing Total Convincing Drop-off % V Conv. Net +48 48% +52 53% +58 47% +61 47% 42 Each message asked of half the sample. Q15. Now I am going to read you a list of arguments that candidates running for Congress have made in favor of enacting tougher reforms and restrictions on Wall Street. After listening to each, please tell me if you think it is a VERY convincing, SOMEWHAT convincing, NOT TOO convincing, or NOT AT ALL convincing argument in favor of Government taking a tougher stance on Wall Street.

  43. Reform Messages – Second Tier A second tier of strong messages focuses on stock buyback practices, how the tax bill benefits the wealthy and political donors, that the economy should work for all (with “fair share” language), and the banks’ record of exploiting ordinary Americans, especially people of color. The last of these, however, resonates strongly among drop-off voters, and still proves persuasive to likely voters. Very Convincing Total Convincing Drop-off % V Conv. Net +48 49% +37 47% +47 47% +46 50% +44 52% 43 Each message asked of half the sample. Q15. Now I am going to read you a list of arguments that candidates running for Congress have made in favor of enacting tougher reforms and restrictions on Wall Street. After listening to each, please tell me if you think it is a VERY convincing, SOMEWHAT convincing, NOT TOO convincing, or NOT AT ALL convincing argument in favor of Government taking a tougher stance on Wall Street.

  44. These messages resonate strongly with Democrats and Clinton voters. However, older women are particularly swayed by arguments about inequality, Wall Street influence in the Trump administration, and the need for reform to put the economy to work for everyone. Independents are swayed by messages centered on the tax bill benefiting Wall Street and the wealthy, racial discrimination within the financial industry, and the political power and influence of the big banks.Younger women are most convinced by messages around inequality, Wall Street and political donors benefiting from the tax bill, Wall Street’s influence on Trump, as well as the stock buyback argument. 44 • Each message asked of ½ the sample. Q15

  45. 45

  46. 46

  47. Anti-Reform Messages Both opposition arguments are significantly less powerful than even our weakest messages. Drop-off voters, however, react more strongly to an argument about the government taking away choices from Americans. Drop-off % Serious Doubts Serious Doubts Total Doubts Net +14 26% +13 32% 47 Q17. Now I am going to read you a list of arguments candidates running for Congress have made in opposition to taking a tougher stance on Wall Street. After listening to each, please tell me if it raises SERIOUS doubts, SOME doubts, MINOR doubts, or NO REAL DOUBTS about enacting tougher reforms and restrictions on Wall Street.

  48. 48

  49. Message Triangle Repeal the Tax Bill for Wall Street This tax bill was supposed to benefit all Americans. But while hardworking families haven’t seen much in their paychecks, Wall Street banks are already cashing out. They are the single largest beneficiaries of the bill, collectively getting over $250 billion in new tax breaks. What’s worse, the money is going to big banks like Wells Fargo who helped cause the financial crisis and have been caught cheating their customers and workers again and again since. This tax bill was written to benefit Wall Street, not our families. Put a Stop to Wall Street’s Racially Discriminatory Lending Practices (Especially Powerful with Drop-off Voters) Whether white, black, or brown, we all want to build a better future for our children. But big banks and Wall Street firms are rigging the rules of our economy, and targeting minority families for predatory lending and higher interest rates for their car loans and mortgages. Instead of giving Wall Street more tax breaks, we must hold financial companies accountable if they discriminate against people because of their race or ethnicity. Take on Wall Street Wall Street Influence = Economic Inequality and a Rigged Economy Big banks and Wall Street billionaires have rigged the economy. The gains go to those at the top while millions of families are still struggling to get back on their feet. Wall Street billionaires use loopholes to pay lower taxes than teachers, and hedge fund and private equity managers squeeze more and more for themselves out of companies while reducing benefits and eliminating jobs. We need to re-write the rules to make the economy work for working families, not just billionaires and big banks. Let’s separate commercial banking from investment banking so banks can’t take investment risks with government-insured customer deposits and break up the biggest banks to prevent a government bailout in the event of another financial crisis. 49

  50. Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066 Celinda Lake clake@lakeresearch.com Daniel Gotoff dgotoff@lakeresearch.com

More Related