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The Parties Fight Back

The Parties Fight Back. Presidential Party Nomination Systems. “King Caucus”: 1800-1828 Convention System: 1832-1912 Mixed System: 1912-1968 Primary System: 1972-1982? Frontloaded primary system 1982-present. Hunt Commission, 1982 . Superdelegates Frontloading.

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The Parties Fight Back

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  1. The Parties Fight Back

  2. Presidential Party Nomination Systems “King Caucus”: 1800-1828 Convention System: 1832-1912 Mixed System: 1912-1968 Primary System: 1972-1982? Frontloaded primary system 1982-present

  3. Hunt Commission, 1982 • Superdelegates • Frontloading

  4. AP Delegate totals, March 17, 2004 (2,162 needed to win nomination)     Kerry: 2333 Edwards: 530 Dean: 156 Clark: 73 Sharpton: 26 Kucinich: 22 Lieberman: 2 Gephardt: 2

  5. The Invisible Primary • Role for elites • Role of money • Role of the press • Role for voters

  6. Republican nomination 2000 • Bush’s money • April 1999: $6 million • July 1999: $36 million • December 1999: $70 million • Closest competitor: McCain • July 1999: $6 million • December 1999: $15 million

  7. Bush: Michigan Gov. John Engler (R) Oklahoma Gov. Frank A. Keating Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush (R) Conn. Gov. John G. Rowland (R Mass. Gov. Argeo Paul Cellucci Colo. Gov. Bill Owens (R) Idaho Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R) Montana Gov. Marc Racicot (R) R.I. Gov. Lincoln C. Almond La. Gov. M.J. "Mike" Foster (R) Pa. Gov. Tom Ridge (R) Kan. Gov. Bill Graves (R) Virginia Gov. James S. Gilmore II N.Y. Gov. George E. Pataki Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt (R) Wyo. Gov. Jim Geringer (R) Wis. Gov. Tommy Thompson Neb. Gov. Mike Johanns (R) Nev. Gov. Kenny Guinn (R) Ohio Gov. Robert A Taft II (R) Ill. Gov. George H. Ryan (R) Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R) Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R) Ariz. Gov. Jane Hull (R) W.Va. Gov. Cecil H. Underwood N.J. Gov. Christine Todd Whitman Alexander Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R) Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R) Forbes NM Governor Gary Johnson Hatch UT Gov. Mike Levitt Quayle Miss. Gov. Fordice & Endorsements…

  8. Democratic nomination 2000 • Bradley: OR: John Kitzhaber

  9. Where are we now? • Invisible primary will start December ’06 • Has it started already?

  10. Frontrunner status? • Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) • Current cash on hand: $17,101,626 • Time (2/20, Tumulty) reports that big Republican donors "seem to be settling" on McCain…”

  11. John Edwards Howard Dean Hillary Clinton Rod Blagojevich Janet Napolitano Bill Richardson Tom Vilsack Evan Bayh Barack Obama Bill Frist Rudy Giuliani John McCain George Allen Mitt Romney Goerge Pataki Chuck Hagel Possible contenders?

  12. Rules of the 2008 race • Frontloading • PR vs. the Unit Rule (Democratic party) • Campaign Finance

  13. Campaign Finance • Creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates who enter primary elections • All funds candidates raise in amounts of $250 or less (if they raise $5000 in 20 different states) are matched by the federal government on Jan 1 of election year • If you take the federal money, you abide by overall and state by state spending restrictions (about $44 million in 2004) • Public financing ($74 million in 2004) for presidential campaigns (with limits on campaign spending)

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